Tennessee vs. Houston Odds, Picks, and Prediction, Tuesday, November 25, 2025
On Tuesday, the No. 18 Tennessee Volunteers will play the No. 2 Houston Cougars in a top-25 college basketball matchup in the Players Era Festival, and we have you ready to go with our Tennessee vs. Houston prediction, odds, and preview. Tip-off from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, NV, is at 6:00 p.m. ET.
UH is a 3.5-point favorite, and the total is 134.5.
These college hoops squads played last season in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. The Cougars won that game 69-50, holding the Vols to 15 first-half points. If you want the Tennessee vs. Houston prediction, read on to get our top NCAAB predictions and increase your bankroll!
*Article published before the conclusion of Monday's Cougars game.
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Vols dominated Rutgers on Monday
Tennessee (6-0 SU, 2-4 ATS, and 4-2 O/U) has played a soft non-conference schedule to this point, but has only covered twice (as 27-point favorites against Northern Kentucky and as 15.5-point favorites against Rutgers). The Vols were up by 30 over Rutgers in the second half of Monday's game and cruised to an 85-60 win. UT dominated their Big Ten opponent in the paint (+16 scoring margin) and was efficient from beyond the arc (11-for-22). They also had a significant rebounding advantage (+15 margin with 15 offensive rebounds).
UT is led by freshman forward Nate Ament, who scores 18.8 points per game on 43.5 percent shooting. He also averages 8.4 rebounds. A few other Vols to watch this season are guard Ja'Kobi Gillespie (16.6 PPG and 6.0 APG), forward J.P. Estrella (14.0 PPG and 6.8 RPG), and forward Felix Okpara (8.8 PPG and 6.4 RPG).
Tennessee scores 112.5 points per game (16th) on 50.2 percent shooting (46th), including 35.0 percent from beyond the arc (138th). Defensively, the Volunteers give up 77.3 points per game (173rd) on 34.0 percent shooting (8th), including 25.5 percent from three (25th). UT is ranked 13th in the country, with rankings of 41st in offensive efficiency and 3rd in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.
Tennessee Volunteers Injury Report:
- No significant injuries to report.
Houston is the top defensive team in NCAAB
Houston (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS, and 2-3 O/U) has only covered in two of its previous wins, but won by double digits in each game except its one-point victory over Auburn. The Cougars are the top defensive team in the country, ranking fourth nationally in opponent assist/turnover ratio and fifth in opponent effective field goal percentage.
UH is led by freshman guard Kingston Flemings, who scores 17.4 points per game on 71.4 percent shooting. He also averages 5.2 dimes. A few other Cougars to watch this season are guard Emanuel Sharp (16.0 PPG and 3.8 RPG), forward Chris Cenac Jr. (11.0 PPG and 7.4 RPG), and forward Joseph Tugler (9.2 PPG, 5.8 RPG, and 2.4 SPG).
Houston scores 76.4 points per game (275th) on 45.8 percent shooting (174th), including 30.6 percent from beyond the arc (280th). Defensively, the Cougars allow 53.4 points per game (1st) on 35.4 percent shooting (12th), including 24.7 percent from three (16th). UT is ranked 4th in the country, with rankings of 25th in offensive efficiency and 1st in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vinciletti | +1,570.00 |
| 2 |  Dan Kaiser | +1,223.00 |
| 3 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,000.00 |
| 4 |  Earle Sports Bets | +916.00 |
| 5 |  David Hess | +706.00 |
Houston Cougars Injury Report:
- No significant injuries to report.
Tennessee vs. Houston Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for Tennessee vs. Houston
- Cougars -3.5 (4 Units)
This game could come down to a possession or two. I was impressed by the Vols' 25-point victory over the Scarlet Knights, as they easily could have played down to their competition and overlooked them, with the Cougars up next. They did the opposite, dominating Rutgers from start to finish. That said, the small spread doesn't leave much breathing room for Vols backers. They need to lose by a bucket to cover or pull off the upset to win outright. That's a tall task, even for a top-ten caliber UT squad against a UH team coming off a national championship appearance.
While Tennessee is undoubtedly talented offensively, it could struggle against Houston's defense, as it did in the Elite Eight. The Cougars' unique blend of size and length frustrated the Volunteers in that game, holding them under 30 percent shooting, including 5-for-29 (17%) from three-point range. They didn't even force many turnovers (9) or score a lot at the foul line (4 points) to win by 19. While it will surprise me if the Cougars win by double digits again on Tuesday, I believe they should comfortably cover the spread.
Over/Under Pick for Tennessee vs. Houston
- Under 134.5 (4 Units)
Neither side is expected to push the pace in Tuesday's NCAA Tournament rematch, resulting in a total possession count lower than average. The Vols rank 325th in pace, and the Cougars rank 363rd, per Haslametrics. These squads combined for only 119 points in their Elite Eight matchup, and while I expect this game to be much more competitive, I doubt it will push the total past the 134-point mark. Tennessee and Houston are both stout defensively, especially around the rim, ranking 1st (UH) and 7th (UT) in opponent near-proximity shooting percentage. They also rarely allow quick points off second-chance offensive rebounds (11th and 21st nationally) and don't let their opponents get comfortable from long range.
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