Texas A&M Aggies at Florida State Seminoles Picks and Prediction for Friday, November 28, 2025
Two programs looking to make an early-season statement will square off in Tampa, Florida, when the Texas A&M Aggies (5-2) meet the Florida State Seminoles (5-1). Both nationally recognized programs enter a new era under first-year head coaches, making this a significant measuring-stick game for each side.
Both teams were most recently in action on Tuesday. FSU beat Cal State Bakersfield 89-59, and Texas A&M beat Mississippi Valley State 120–84.
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Dominguez is lighting it up
Texas A&M enters this one on a three-game winning streak after dropping back-to-back games to Oklahoma State and UCF. Since then, the Aggies have taken off, beating Manhattan 109–68 and Mississippi Valley State 120–84 in their last two outings. A&M sits 68th overall in KenPom, ranking 65th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 91st defensively, and they’ve been playing at a fast clip with the 34th-ranked tempo.
Reben Dominguez, a 6'6 sophomore from Spain, has emerged as the go-to scorer. He leads the team with 14.9 points per game and is shooting an impressive 47.3% from deep. The Aggies went 21–13 last season and reached the second round of the NCAA Tournament under Buzz Williams, who departed for Michigan. The program is now in a fresh era under Bucky McMillan, who arrived after taking Samford to a 92–52 record over five seasons.
New era for Noles
Florida State is also welcoming in new leadership as former Seminole guard Luke Loucks returns to take over the program. Loucks, who played at FSU from 2008–12, aims to get the Noles back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2021. He replaces long-time head coach Leonard Hamilton, who ran the program from 2002–25. The Seminoles finished 17–15 last season and needed a reset.
FSU enters at 57th in KenPom, playing with the 6th-fastest tempo in the nation while still holding up defensively at 36th in adjusted efficiency. Offensively, they sit 82nd, and while they haven’t beaten anyone notable yet, they did compete well in a 78-76 loss to rival Florida. The schedule will get a lot tougher soon with Georgia and Houston coming up, so this matchup with A&M is another opportunity to prove they're moving in the right direction.
The Seminoles have also shown strong balance among their top contributors. Lajae Jones leads the team with 15.7 points per game while shooting 45.5% from the field and 38.6% from three. Robert McCray V adds 15.2 points and a team-best 7.3 assists per game. Chauncey Wiggins contributes 14.6 points and 6.2 rebounds, and Alex Steen leads with 7.5 boards and 1.2 blocks per game, while adding 10.7 ppg. Martin Somerville leads the defensive pressure with 2.3 steals per contest and also shoots just under 47% from three-point range.
Texas A&M Aggies at Florida State Seminoles
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Texas A&M vs Florida State ATS Pick:
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Florida State -1.5 (4 units)
Both teams are adjusting to new head coaches, and at first glance, you might give the edge to A&M based on last season’s resume, but Florida State looks more balanced at the top, and they showed real fight in their test against Florida. Playing in Tampa isn’t a true home game, but the crowd should lean pro-Seminole, and Loucks will have his guys eager to make a statement. I like what I've seen from Florida State more athletically and in depth, so I’m backing them to cover.
Texas A&M vs Florida State Total Pick:
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OVER 167 (5 units)
Both coaches want pace, and both teams will embrace it and run, as Florida State sits sixth in adjusted tempo and Texas A&M is 34th. Each squad also ranks in the top quarter of the nation offensively, and the Aggies are finding their rhythm from deep, shooting just under 44% from three over their last three games. With the number of possessions these two teams will generate, the over is the play.
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