Texas State Bobcats vs. Bowling Green Falcons Picks and Prediction for Monday, November 3, 2025
Use Code WWWC It’s the opening day of the 2025-26 college basketball season, and it brings a non-conference tilt between the Sun Belt and the MAC as the Texas State Bobcats take on the Bowling Green Falcons Monday night as part of the Field of 68 Opening Day Marathon in the Buckeye State ,and we have you covered with our Texas State vs. Bowling Green prediction. Texas State finished the 2024-25 season 16-16 overall and failed to make the postseason. Bowling Green finished 2024-25 with a 14-18 mark and failed to make the postseason. This marks the first time that the two programs have met on the hardwood as Division I opponents. Read more about this Texas State vs. Bowling Green prediction! Struggling with handicapping? Try our NCAAB Predictions!
Texas State Looking to Pick Up Road Win in Opener
Texas State was a .500 team in 2024-25, finishing the year 16-16 overall, and they were 9-9 in Sun Belt, leaving them seventh in the conference standings. The Bobcats turned in their worst showing defensively in the Terrence Johnson era as coach, and they’ve got work to do to turn things around this season. Texas State lost four starters from a season ago, including leading scorer Tylan Pope, who put up 16.4 points and 6.4 rebounds a game. The Bobcats added a slew of transfers from the Division I level, led by Jalen Bolden (13.2 points, six rebounds for UL Monroe), Kyndall Davis (5.5 ppg at Louisiana), and Makai Willis (10.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg for UL Monroe) as the team looks to rebuild.
The Bobcats put up an average of 76.2 points per game last season, putting them 110th in the nation in scoring offense. Texas State pulled down 37 rebounds per contest (93rd) while dishing out an average of 14.5 assists a night. The Bobcats struggled defensively as they were 222nd by allowing 73.3 points a contest. Texas State shot 46.4% from the floor as a team last season. The Bobcats sank an average of 5.9 triples a night (338th) while shooting 36.7% from beyond the arc as a team in 2024-25, which was 47th in the country. Texas State was solid at the free-throw line as they hit 75.6% of their chances last season, which was good for 54th in Division I. Mark Drone is the team’s leading returning scorer with 11.5 points per gam,e while Kaden Gumbs (11 points, 3.4 rebounds) is the lone returning starter.
Falcons Seeking to Soar at Home
Bowling Green struggled last season as injuries wreaked havoc with their ideal starting lineup, as their frontcourt starters were out of the mix by the time the team got to the heart of conference play. It added up to a disappointing 14-18 campaign overall and an 8-10 mark in MAC play, leaving them eighth in the conference standings. While the Falcons lost a trio of key players in Marcus Johnson, Derrick Butler and Trey Thomas, who combined for 40.6 ppg and 189 three-pointers, Todd Simon brought in some guys that should contribute from day one. That includes Power Four transfers Javon Ruffin (5.6 ppg at Colorado) and Justin Thomas (4.8 ppg at Florida State), who should bolster the leadership on a program that could contend in the MAC this season.
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The Falcons finished the 2024-25 campaign averaging 73.5 points per game, putting them 191st in the nation in scoring offense, on the season. Bowling Green collected 34.4 rebounds per game (229th in the nation) and dished out 11.2 assists per contest. The Falcons finished a subpar 239th in scoring defense as they allowed an average of 73.9 points a night. Bowling Green shot 43.9% from the floor as a team last season. The Falcons splashed eight triples a night while sinking 34.2% of their attempts from beyond the arc in 2024-25. Bowling Green was above average at the charity stripe as they converted 74.6% of their attempts last season, putting them 89th in the country. Javontae Campbell is the team’s leading returning scoring threat as he put up 14.9 points, 4.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 2.8 steals a night.
Texas State vs. Bowling Green Pick
Texas State vs. Bowling Green Spread Pick
- Bowling Green -4.5 (4 units)
Texas State was a .500 team last season that was fraught with defensive issues. The Bobcats brought in some pieces from other Sun Belt programs and are fortunate to have a pair of returning double-digit scoring options from last season. With that said, Texas State was a dismal 4-10 as the visiting team last season and three of those wins came over teams ranked 278th or worse in the KenPom rankings, plus a one-point triumph over Troy. Bowling Green, for their issues, was a .500 team (8-8) at home and they have Campbell, who finished fourth in Division I in steals, anchoring things for the squad. The Falcons have depth and should be better than last year’s squad. Take Bowling Green at home in this one.
Texas State vs. Bowling Green Over/Under Pick
- Under 145 (4 units)
Texas State saw the over post an 18-11-1 mark in their 30 games with posted totals last season. The Bobcats were a slower-than-average team in adjusted tempo as they were 256th in that category with 66.2 possessions a night. Bowling Green finished 309th in the nation in offensive efficiency, 231st in effective field goal percentage (49.8%), 225th in field goal percentage (43.9%) and 237th in two-point shooting (50.4%) last season. The Falcons were a team that enjoyed running last year, ranking 95th in tempo according to KenPom with 68.9 possessions a night. Their problem was a lot of possessions were empty, which contributed to the under posting a 16-14 mark in their 30 games with a posted total. It’s tough to get amped about other team offensively right now so lean to the under in this contest.
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