Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Purdue Boilermakers Picks and Prediction for Friday, November 21, 2025
It’s an early season clash on the hardwood and it brings a non-conference tilt between foes from the Big 12 and the Big Ten on the hardwood in the Bahamas as the #15 Texas Tech Red Raiders take on the #1 Purdue Boilermakers Friday night in the championship game of the Baha Mar Invitational and we have you covered with our Texas Tech vs. Purdue prediction. Texas Tech comes in off an 84-83 win over Wake Forest in their previous contest Thursday night, failing to cover the line as a 9.5-point favorite. Purdue knocked off Memphis 80-71 in their previous contest Thursday night, failing to cover the line as a 14.5-point favorite. In the all-time series between the schools, the Boilermakers own a 2-1 advantage, but the Red Raiders picked up a 78-65 win in the most recent matchup, which came in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament in Boston on March 23, 2018. Read more about this Texas Tech vs. Purdue prediction! Struggling with handicapping? Try our NCAAB Predictions!
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Red Raiders Look to Topple #1 Team in the Land
Texas Tech had their hands full in their opening round tilt with Wake Forest but managed to escape with the victory. The Red Raiders improved to 4-1 on the season and now try to topple the #1 team in the country in the title game. Against Wake Forest, Texas Tech jumped in front 13-3 out of the gate and took their biggest lead at 23-12 with 9:30 to play in the first half. The Red Raiders settled for a 35-34 edge at the half and faced their biggest deficit at 52-45 with 13:49 remaining in the game. Texas Tech regrouped in a seesaw game down the stretch, taking the lead for good on Christian Anderson’s jumper with 1:34 to go. The Red Raiders hung on down the stretch to emerge with the win. Texas Tech shot 41.1% from the field, including 12 of 35 from three-point range, and held a 44-33 advantage on the glass in the win. JT Toppin paced the Red Raiders with 21 points and nine rebounds in the victory.
The Red Raiders are averaging 87.4 points per game on the offensive end of the floor this season, putting them 71st in the nation in scoring offense. Texas Tech is pulling down 42 boards a night while dishing out 18.6 assists per contest. The Red Raiders are average on the defensive end of the floor, ranking 135th in the nation by allowing 72.8 points a night. JT Toppin leads the team in scoring as he puts up 23.5 points plus 11 rebounds per contest on the season. LeJuan Watts (12.5 points, 6.3 rebounds) and Donovan Atwell (14 points) provide secondary scoring pop. Christian Anderson (18.8 points, 8.8 assists), Leon Horner, Tyeree Bryan, Jaylen Petty, Nolan Groves, Marial Akuentok, Jazz Henderson and Jack Francis are averaging solid minutes for coach Grant McCasland. Texas Tech is shooting 45.1% from the floor this season, which is 171st in the nation. The Red Raiders splash 12 threes a night while shooting 37.3% from beyond the arc, putting them 60th in Division I. Texas Tech is average at the free-throw line as they knock down 71.4% of their chances this season, putting them 194th in the nation.
Key Injury Report for Texas Tech:
- No Key Injuries
Purdue Shooting to Maintain Hot Start
Purdue took care of business in their first round matchup as they took down Memphis Thursday night to advance to the title game. The Boilermakers improved to 5-0 on the year and try to maintain that hot start as they remain the #1 team in the country. Against Memphis, Purdue was punched in the mouth early, trailing 13-4 with 15:27 left in the opening half, before regrouping to lead by one at intermission. The Boilermakers were still down three with 7:01 remaining before taking control with a 12-0 run to go up 73-64 with 3:27 to play. Their lead didn’t drop below seven after that as they earned the win. Purdue shot 46.2% from the floor, including 11 of 30 from three-point range, and owned a 37-34 edge on the glass in the game. Fletcher Loyer led the Boilermakers with 20 points in the win.
This season, Purdue puts up an average of 86.6 points a game, putting them 71st in the nation in scoring offense. The Boilermakers collect an average of 42.2 rebounds per contest (45th) while they dish out an average of 20 assists a night (21st) this season. Purdue is above average on the defensive end of the floor as they give up 71.6 points a night on the year, putting them 161st in the nation in scoring defense. Fletcher Loyer is leading the Boilermakers with 17.6 points per game this season. Trey Kaufman-Renn (16 points, 13.7 rebounds), Braden Smith (15.2 points, 4.4 rebounds, nine assists), Oscar Cluff (11.4 points, 10.2 rebounds) and Daniel Jacobsen are solid secondary scorers. Liam Murphy, C.J. Cox, Jack Benter, Omer Mayer and Gicarri Harris are among those guys that Matt Painter is looking at to contribute on both ends of the floor. Purdue knocks down 48% of their shots from the floor this season, putting them 96th in Division I. The Boilermakers splash an average of 11 three-pointers a night (32nd) while shooting 39.9% from beyond the arc, which is 31st in the nation. Purdue is above average at the charity stripe, knocking down 75% of their attempts on the year.
Key Injury Report for Purdue:
- Forward Liam Murphy is questionable.
Texas Tech vs. Purdue Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
| 4 |  David Hess | +1,745.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
Texas Tech vs. Purdue Spread Pick
- Purdue (4 units)
Texas Tech is a tough team and they are going to make a solid run in March but this might be asking too much here. The Red Raiders had their hands full with Wake Forest in the opening round and now has to contend with the top team in the nation. Purdue prevailed over Memphis even with Kauffman-Renn fouling out and they are very efficient offensively. The Boilermakers are tough on the glass, they can score on the interior with Kauffman-Renn and Cluff while Smith and Loyer can hurt you from the perimeter. This is an experienced squad and they have solid depth to work with as well. The Red Raiders hang tough but the Boilermakers make the plays in crunch time to earn the win.
Texas Tech vs. Purdue Over/Under Pick
- Under (4 units)
Texas Tech has seen the over hit in three of their five games on the year. The Red Raiders are 12th in offensive efficiency, 29th in defensive efficiency, 99th in effective field goal percentage (54%) and 24th in offensive rebounding percentage (40.4%) this season. Texas Tech will grind possessions as they are 287th in adjusted tempo with 68.8 possessions a night. Purdue has seen the under post a 3-2 mark in their five games in 2025-26. The Boilermakers are first in offensive efficiency, 58th in effective field goal percentage (56.5%), 39th in turnover percentage (13.5%), 31st in three-point shooting (39.9%) and 96th in field goal percentage (48%) on the year. Purdue is just 341st in tempo with 67.1 possessions per game according to KenPom. Both teams are slower paced and good on the glass. Look for this game to wind up short of the mark as we see pretty good defense on both sides.
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