Toledo vs. Bowling Green Picks and Prediction for Saturday, February 14, 2026
Use Code WWWC Toledo Rockets (13-12) vs. Bowling Green Falcons (15-10)
The college hoops betting action goes on Saturday, February 14, 2026, with plenty of interesting matchups around the country, including the MAC showdown at Stroh Center in Bowling Green, OH, so we’ve prepared the Toledo vs. Bowling Green prediction to get you covered.
Toledo and Bowling Green lock horns for the second time this season. On January 24, the Rockets outlasted the Falcons 73-72 as slight 1-point home underdogs, and the game went under the 157.5-point line.
Read more about this Toledo vs. Bowling Green prediction, and check out all our NCAAB picks for Saturday’s card. The tip-off at Stroh Center is set at 5:00 PM ET.
Toledo is coming off a big win
The Toledo Rockets (13-12; 12-9-1 ATS; 10-12 O/U) snapped their two-game skid last Wednesday and advanced to 7-5 in conference play. After consecutive losses against Kent State 75-72 at home and James Madison 73-71 on the road, the Rockets beat Western Michigan 90-79 as 6.5-point road favorites.
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Toledo held Western Michigan to 43.1% shooting from the field while making 59.2% of their field goals. The Rockets missed 11 of their 28 shots from the foul line, but they went 9-for-19 from downtown while committing a paltry five turnovers.
Junior guard Sonny Wilson tortured Western Michigan for 18 points, five rebounds, and three assists. Wilson tallies 17.2 points, 4.7 assists, and 3.5 rebounds per game, while freshman guard Leroy Blyden adds 16.0 points, 4.0 assists, and 3.4 boards a night.
The Rockets score 111.7 points per 100 possessions (116th in the nation) and allow 111.5 points in return (246th). They rank 69th in the nation in 3-point percentage (35.8%) and 71st in turnover percentage (15.3%). Toledo is No. 166 in the NCAA NET Rankings.
Bowling Green hopes to stay on track
The Bowling Green Falcons (15-10; 10-12 ATS; 7-15 O/U) have won two of their previous three contests overall, sandwiching a heavy 91-54 defeat at Arkansas State with a 77-52 home victory over Ball State and a 68-52 road win at Northern Illinois.
Last Wednesday, the Falcons cruised past Northern Illinois, covering a 7.5-point spread with ease. Bowling Green outscored the Huskies 38-19 in the first half and never looked back. The Falcons made 50.0% of their field goals (5-for-16 from deep), and junior forward Mayar Wol led the charge with 15 points off the bench.
Wol (11.7 PPG, 2.8 RPG) is one of four Falcons with points per game in double digits. Senior guard Javontae Campbell leads the way with 18.5 points, 5.0 assists, and 4.8 rebounds per game, while senior forward Sam Towns averages 11.9 points and 6.5 rebounds.
The Falcons are 6-6 in conference play and No. 145 in the NCAA NET Rankings. They score 105.4 points per 100 possessions (229th in the country) and surrender 103.4 points in return (81st). Bowling Green is 35th in the country in defensive turnover percentage (19.7%) and 83rd in opposing 3-point percentage (32.2%).
Toledo vs. Bowling Green Pick
Spread Pick for Toledo vs. Bowling Green
- Bowling Green (4 units)
Bowling Green outrebounded Toledo 39-29 in their first meeting of the season. The Falcons held the Rockets to 40.3% shooting from the field (8-for-25 from deep) while making 52.7% of their field goals, but it wasn’t enough. The Rockets committed nine fewer turnovers than the Falcons and missed just one of their 12 free throws.
I expect the Falcons to get revenge. They managed to slow Sonny Wilson down in that narrow loss at Toledo, and the Falcons are arguably a much better defensive team than the Rockets. Keep your eyes on Javontae Campbell, who dominated Toledo in January, notching 29 points, eight assists, six rebounds, and three assists.
Over/Under Pick for Toledo vs. Bowling Green
- Under (4 units)
The Falcons lean on their defense. They are a great rebounding team, too, and Bowling Green ranks 44th in the country in defensive rebound percentage (72.8%). On the other side, the Rockets are 340th in defensive rebound percentage (64.3%). Their defense is quite shaky, and the Rockets rely on their offense a lot.
Hereof, the total seems like a tricky wager. Both teams are in the middle of the pack when it comes to pace, which doesn’t help at all. I will lean on betting trends and take the under. Six of Bowling Green’s last seven games overall and four of Toledo’s previous six have gone under the total. Also, the under is 4-1 in their last five encounters.
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