Toledo vs. Michigan State, Picks, Odds, Preview, and Prediction, Tuesday, December 16, 2025
It’s a non-conference matchup with No. 9 Michigan State looking to continue its winning ways on Tuesday, Dec. 16. Read our Toledo vs Michigan State prediction along with our NCAAB picks for the night. Toledo is 5-5 and they are playing their first big-time program of the season. The Rockets have lost three straight games away from home. Michigan State has started Big Ten Conference play well, with two big wins over Iowa and Penn State. These two teams will meet with tip-off set for 6:30 P.M. EST.
Sign Up for Winners and Whiners News Alerts, Get Free Picks and Discounts
Subscribe Now
Toledo’s defense is failing them during non-conference schedule
Toledo is 5-5 overall this season. They have lost three of their last four games coming into Tuesday night. The Rockets haven’t played a Power-Four conference opponent yet this season. Toledo has lost three straight games on the road or on a neutral site.
In their last game, Toledo lost 75-70 to Robert Morris on the road on Saturday, Dec. 13. The Rockets led 32-12 with six minutes to play in the first half, but they struggled in the second half, relinquishing their lead and suffering the loss. Robert Morris went on a 9-1 run late in the game, which gave them a lead and the eventual win. Toledo shot 33% from the field and 33% from behind the arc in the loss. Sonny Wilson led the team with 21 points on 6-for-13 shooting.
Wilson leads the team with 16.1 points per game. Sean Craig is grabbing 7.8 rebounds while Leroy Blyden Jr. is passing for 4.9 assists per game.
Toledo is the No. 161st-ranked team in the nation according to KenPom. They are the 88th-ranked offensive rating team, while the Rockets are also placed 287th in defensive rating.
Toledo is averaging 82.6 points per game, which ranks 154th. They are the 83rd-ranked shooting team, making 47.9% from the field. The Rockets are hitting 34.2% from behind the 3-point line, which ranks 166th.
The Rockets are allowing 77.6 points per game, which ranks 218th. They are allowing their opponents to shoot 49.3% from the field, placing them 355th. Toledo is giving up 34.1% from behind the 3-point line, which ranks 247th.
Toledo is 4-5 against the spread this season. The Rockets are 3-2 against the spread when they have played away from home. Toledo has yet to play a Power Four conference foe this year. They are 3-1 against the spread when they have been underdogs. The under is 6-3 when Toledo has played this season. The under is 4-1 when Toledo has played on the road. The under is 4-1 when the total has been set at 159 points or less this season.
Michigan State kick-off Big Ten play
Michigan State is 9-1 overall as they are the No. 9 team in the nation. They started the season with eight straight wins before falling to No. 4 Duke by six points. The Spartans have started Big Ten Conference play with two big wins over Iowa and Penn State. Michigan State has big wins over No. 14 Arkansas, No. 12 Kentucky and No. 16 North Carolina to highlight their opening part of the season.
In their last game, Michigan State defeated Penn State 76-72 on the road on Saturday, Dec. 13. Michigan State went on an 8-0 run in the final five minutes to take the lead and earn the win over the Nittany Lions. Michigan State shot 46% from the field and 56% from behind the 3-point line in the win. They out-rebounded Penn State 40-27, which was key in the victory. Divine Ugochukwu led the team in scoring with 23 points on 8-for-10 shooting.
Jaxon Kohler leads the team with 13.8 points and 9.8 rebounds per game. Jeremy Fears Jr. is passing for a team-leading 9.7 assists per game, too.
According to KenPom, Michigan State is the No. 12th-ranked team in the nation. They are ranked 47th in offensive rating and 4th best in defensive rating.
Michigan State is averaging 76.5 points per game, which ranks 241st. They are shooting 45.5% from the field, placing them 177th. The Spartans are also hitting 35.7% from behind the arc, ranking them 110th.
Michigan State is the eighth-best scoring defense allowing 62.1 points per game. They are forcing their opponents to shoot 38.6% from the field and 28.5% from behind the 3-point line, which both rank inside the top-30 in the nation.
Michigan State is 5-5 against the spread this season. The Spartans are 2-4 against the spread when they have played at home. They are 1-4 against the spread as a double-digit favorite. The under is 7-3 when Michigan State has played. The under is 5-1 when they have played at home.
Toledo Rockets vs Michigan State Spartans Picks
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,494.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +1,859.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +1,788.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,428.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,400.00 |
Toledo vs Michigan State Spread Pick
- Michigan State -23 (5 units)
Michigan State hasn’t been very good against mid-major opponents this season, but the majority of those contests came in the opening weeks of the season. The Spartans have been impressive the last few games, winning key games against Iowa and Penn State and almost knocking off highly rated Duke. It all starts on defense, where Michigan State ranks eighth best in points allowed. Expect Toledo to struggle with the slow pace and intense on-ball defense. The Rockets do not have the individual scoring or defensive ability to force turnovers to keep them in the game. Toledo ranks 355th in the defense field goal percentage, as Michigan State will get what they want all game. This is Toledo’s first game of the season against a Power-Four Conference opponent.
Take Michigan State to cover.
Toledo vs Michigan State Over/Under Pick
- Under 151.5 (5 units)
Defensive intensity is an area that Michigan State has been hanging its hat all season. The Spartans rank fourth best in this department, while they are also playing a slow pace. Michigan State ranks 288th in pace according to KenPom. The Rockets also aren’t ranked very fast as they are they are the 136th-ranked pace team. Toledo’s offense is simply not good enough to put up points and have the over hit. The under is 5-1 when Michigan State has played at home. The under is 4-1 when Toledo has played on the road. The under is 4-1 when the total has been set at 159 points or less this season for the Rockets, too.
Take the under on Tuesday.
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
Bet $5 & Get $200
