Troy Trojans vs Nebraska Cornhuskers Picks and Prediction for Thursday March 19 2026
Use Code WWWC It is the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament on Thursday afternoon, and we have a Troy vs Nebraska prediction ready to rock and roll. Troy went 22-11 on the year, and they won the Sun Belt Conference Tourney, beating Georgia Southern 77-61. Nebraska comes in at 26-5 overall, and they went 15-5 in the Big 10. The Cornhuskers were knocked out of the Big 10 tournament by Purdue by a score of 74-58. Continue reading to see our Troy vs Nebraska Prediction.
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Troy Looks To Pull Huge Upset
Troy comes into the Round of 64 feeling like a team that peaked at the right time after a 77–61 win over Georgia Southern in the Sun Belt title game, a performance built on defensive pressure and timely shot‑making. The Trojans are 23–11 and have won four straight, and their defense has tightened considerably — just 64 points allowed per game over their last five. For the season, Troy averages 80.3 points, shoots 44.9%, and leans heavily on the three‑ball (9.3 made threes per game) while rebounding at a top‑50 national level (38.3 boards per game). Defensively, they’ve held opponents to 43.3% shooting and just 31.3% from deep, and their ability to force mistakes and win the possession battle has been a major part of their surge. They play fast, they shoot often, and they’re comfortable in high‑variance games — something that has shown up in their overtime battles and upset wins earlier in the season.
Against Nebraska, Troy faces a team that doesn’t run, doesn’t give up transition points, and forces opponents into tough perimeter looks — a direct challenge to Troy’s offensive identity. The Trojans will need to stay patient, avoid settling early in the shot clock, and make sure their three‑point attempts come from rhythm rather than desperation. Defensively, Troy has to limit Nebraska’s second‑chance opportunities and keep the Cornhuskers out of the paint, because Nebraska’s efficiency rises sharply when they control tempo. The Trojans’ path is clear: hit enough threes to stretch the floor, keep the rebounding margin close, and turn this into a game where Nebraska has to play faster than it prefers. If Troy can dictate pace and maintain the defensive sharpness they’ve shown over the last two weeks, they have the tools to make this matchup far more competitive than the seeding suggests.
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The Offense Cooled Down The Stretch
Nebraska heads into the Round of 64 trying to regroup after a 74–58 loss to Purdue in the Big Ten quarterfinals, a game where their offense never really found rhythm and their perimeter shooting cooled off at the wrong time. That defeat capped a strange split to their season — a 20–0 start, followed by a 6–6 finish over their last dozen games — and the late‑season dip has been tied directly to their scoring slowdown. Over their last nine outings, the Huskers have averaged just 67.9 points, well below their season mark of 77.3, despite still shooting a solid 46.5% overall and 35.3% from three. Nebraska’s profile is built on efficiency, ball movement (18.0 assists per game, top‑15 nationally), and a defense that has quietly been excellent: opponents score only 66.2 points, shoot 40.4%, and hit just 29.9% from deep, one of the lowest opponent three‑point percentages in the country.
Against Troy, Nebraska steps into a matchup that will be played almost entirely in the half court, which suits them just fine. Both teams sit near the bottom nationally in tempo, so the Huskers’ ability to execute late in the clock, protect the ball, and generate high‑percentage looks inside will matter more than pace. Defensively, Nebraska must stay disciplined on the perimeter — Troy takes nearly 28 threes per game — and finish possessions cleanly, because the Trojans rebound well and can punish second chances. The Huskers’ path is straightforward: lean on their defensive consistency, avoid the scoring droughts that have crept in lately, and let their efficiency and shot selection dictate the flow. If they can control the glass and keep Troy from getting comfortable from deep, Nebraska has the structure to grind this into the kind of controlled game they prefer.
Troy vs Nebraska Pick
Troy vs Nebraska Spread Pick
- Troy +13.5 (4 Units)
Troy +13.5 is a perfectly reasonable play because their defensive profile travels, and this matchup is going to be played at a pace where double‑digit underdogs usually hang around. Nebraska hasn’t looked like the same team that opened 20–0 — they’ve gone 6–6 since, and the offense has really cooled, averaging just 67.9 points over their last nine. That’s not the kind of form you want when you’re being asked to win by margin in a slow, half‑court game. Troy, meanwhile, has allowed just 64 points per game over their last five, guards the three well, and rebounds at a top‑50 national level. They don’t run, they don’t take wild risks, and they don’t give opponents extra possessions, which is exactly how you stay inside a big number against a methodical favorite. Nebraska’s defense is good enough to win, but their recent scoring droughts make it tough to trust them to separate. In a low‑tempo matchup where every possession is magnified, Troy has the defensive toughness to keep this inside the number.
Troy vs Nebraska Over/Under Pick
- Under 138 (5 Units)
The Under 138 lines up cleanly with how both teams actually play, not the perception of them. Nebraska hasn’t pushed tempo all season — they’re a half‑court, execution‑driven group — and their offense has cooled significantly, averaging just 67.9 points over their last nine. Troy is even slower, sitting 309th in tempo, and their defense has been the best part of their profile down the stretch, giving up only 64 points per game over their last five while holding opponents to 43.3% shooting on the year. Neither team thrives in transition, neither forces a fast pace, and both are comfortable grinding through long possessions. Add in Nebraska’s elite opponent three‑point defense and Troy’s ability to limit clean looks, and this has all the markings of a controlled, low‑possession game where points come at a premium.
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