Troy vs. USC Picks and Prediction for Thursday, November 20, 2025
Use Code WWWC Troy Trojans (4-2) vs. USC Trojans (3-0)
The college basketball betting action goes on Thursday, November 20, 2025, with the Troy Trojans squaring off against the USC Trojans in the non-conference showdown at Galen Center in Los Angeles, CA, and we’ve prepared the Troy vs. USC prediction to get you covered.
Troy and USC locked horns once, and it was nine years ago. USC outlasted Troy 82-77 at Galen Center, but the visitors covered the spread. Troy opens as a 17.5-point road dog this time around, and the total sits at 156.5 points.
Will Troy beat the number once more? Read more about this Troy vs. USC prediction, and check out all our NCAAB picks for Thursday’s card. The tip-off at Galen Center is set at 10:00 PM ET.
Troy is coming off a massive win
The Troy Trojans (4-2; 3-2 ATS; 3-2 O/U) snapped their two-game skid last Tuesday. After consecutive defeats at Loyola Marymount 74-63 and Cal State Northridge 94-85, the Trojans stunned San Diego State 108-107 in double overtime.
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Troy beat SDSU as a 14.5-point road dog. The Trojans forced the Aztecs into 20 turnovers and scored 20 fast-break points while going 12-for-34 from downtown and 32-for-43 from the foul line. Junior forward Thomas Dowd led Troy with a monster double-double of 25 points and 19 rebounds.
The Trojans have five players with points per game in double figures, including Dowd (16.0 PPG, 11.0 RPG). Junior forward Victor Valdes tallies 16.0 points and 3.8 assists per game, and sophomore guard Cooper Campbell adds 15.8 points and 4.3 assists a night.
Troy returned 44.6% of minutes played and 39.9% of scoring from its 2024-25 roster. The Trojans are 118th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (109.4 points per 100 possessions) and 122nd in adjusted defensive efficiency (105.1).
USC hasn’t been tested yet
The USC Trojans (3-0; 3-0 ATS; 1-2 O/U) cruised past their first three rivals in 2025-26. After a couple of home wins against Cal Poly 94-64 and Manhattan 114-83, the Trojans beat Illinois State 87-67 at the neutral site.
Last Friday, USC held Illinois State to 34.3% shooting from the field (7-for-32 from deep). The Trojans made 50.9% of their field goals (6-for-18 from deep) but missed 12 of their 35 shots from the foul line. Junior guard Rodney Rice led the charge with a triple-double of 21 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists.
Rice tallies 18.7 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 7.3 assists per game. Senior guard Chad Baker-Mazara posts 18.7 points and 6.0 boards per contest, and senior forward Ezra Ausar adds 17.0 points and 3.7 boards a night.
USC returned just one player from its 2024-25 roster. The Trojans score 118.7 points per 100 possessions (24th in the nation) and surrender 98.1 points in return (23rd).
Troy vs. USC Pick
Spread Pick for Troy vs. USC
- USC -17.5 (5 units)
Troy pulled off a huge upset last Tuesday, but I highly doubt the Trojans’ chances of pulling off another one. USC takes the floor for the first time in six days, and these Trojans look fresh and ready to rumble.
Through their first three outings in 2025-26, the new-look USC team has attacked the paint a lot. Troy lacks height and length to compete in this matchup, and the visitors are not a great defensive team by any stretch of the imagination.
USC ranks 22nd in the nation in offensive rebound percentage (41.2%), while Troy is 313th in defensive rebound percentage (62.4%). I expect the hosts to dominate.
Over/Under Pick for Troy vs. USC
- Over 156.5 (5 units)
USC has been playing at a fast pace thus far, recording 73.1 possessions per 40 minutes (51st in the country). A ton of offensive boards certainly help (15.7 per game), and I expect more of the same when Troy comes to town.
As I mentioned, USC has a serious height advantage over Troy. The visitors tally 70.4 possessions per 40 minutes (188th), and they will lean on 3-pointers to keep it close. Troy ranks 45th in the country in 3-point rate (.478) and 127th in 3-point percentage (34.7%).
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