UC Davis vs. Cal Poly, Picks, Prediction, Odds and Line Movement for Saturday, January 10, 2026
Big West Conference basketball takes place on Saturday in this UC Davis vs. Cal Poly prediction. Cal Poly is 6-11 overall and 2-3 in the Big West. UC Davis is 9-6 overall and 2-2 in the league. These programs met three times last season, including the conference tournament. UC Davis won both games in the regular season, but Cal Poly beat the Aggies in the BW Tournament 86-76. UC Davis has won four of their last five, while the Mustangs have lost six of seven. Check out more college basketball free picks and NFL playoff picks at Winners and Whiners.
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Aggies are offensive-minded
When you look at offensive numbers, UC Davis is 61st in college basketball with 87 points per game and 75th in field goal percentage at 47.7%. That offense has been buzzling lately. In their last five Division one games, they’ve averaged 86.4 points per game. Their only loss in conference play came against Cal State Bakersfield, who held them to 79 points in a two-point win for the Roadrunners. In their last game, they were able to beat UC Santa Barbara on the road as a 4.5-point dog, 93-86. The Aggies had six players score in double figures, led by Nils Cooper, who had 19 points, seven rebounds, four assists and three steals.
Cooper is a 6-6 guard who started his career at Pepperdine. He’s averaging 14.6 points and 5.0 rebounds this season, while shooting 55.8% from the field. Guard Connor Sevilla adds 14.4 points and shoots 47.4% 37-78) from three-point range.
The Aggies rank 162nd on KenPom, 135th in Adjusted Offensive Rating and 211th in Adjusted Defense.
Mustangs' struggles on the road continue
Cal Poly has lost two straight games, to Long Beach (74-66) and Cal State Northridge (95-90) in their last game on Jan. 8. Cal Poly has lost three straight on the road and is 3-7 away from home, but one of their three victories came at Utah on Nov. 20 as a 13.5-point dog (92-85).
On Thursday, they fell at CSUN but did cover the 7.5 points. Hamad Mousa led the Mustangs with a career-high 34 points on 11-of-25 shooting. Cayden Ward added 21 points. At one point, the Mustangs led this game by as many as 14 points with 13 minutes left. CSUN shot 52.2% and scored 38 points after Jake Davis produced a three-point play to make it 68-54.
Mousa is a 6-8 transfer from Dayton, who is averaging 21.7 points per game and 6.2 rebounds after playing sparingly for the Flyers last season. Ward (15.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg) and Peter Badelj (15.1 ppg) are the other double-digit scorers for Cal Poly.
On KenPom, the Mustangs rank 242nd overall, 257th in Adjusted Offense and 222nd in Adjusted Defense. When it comes to tempo, they are pushing the ball in transition all the time as they rank fourth in Adjusted Tempo.
Spread Pick and Prediction for UC Davis vs. Cal Poly
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  The Insiders Room | +1,793.00 |
| 2 |  Tony Karpinski | +1,731.00 |
| 3 |  Jesse Schule | +1,599.00 |
| 4 |  Rob Vinciletti | +1,284.00 |
| 5 |  David Delano | +1,232.00 |
UC Davis vs. Cal Poly Odds and Picks
- UC Davis to cover (4 units)
This should be a fun contest. This is a revenge game for Cal Poly, which had dominated this series, winning seven straight before falling in the Big West Tournament opening round. UC Davis is the better team this season. Cal Poly is shooting just 42.6% from the field and 28.6% from three-point range at home. UC Davis is shooting 46.3% from the field on the road, so it doesn’t really matter where they are-they can shoot. Cal Poly also struggles defensively, allowing teams to shoot 45.5% from the field, which ranks 287th.
Over/Under Pick for UC Davis vs. Cal Poly
- Over (4 units)
It’s tough to go under with teams that are averaging over 80 points per game, and with Cal Poly ranking in the top five in tempo in the nation. UC Davis has gone over in six straight games and Cal Poly has gone over in five of their last eight games. UC Davis head coach Mike DeGeorge plays a fast-paced offense focused on three-point shots and layups, which is the modern style of basketball.
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