UC Davis vs. UC San Diego Picks and Prediction for Thursday, February 12, 2026
Use Code WWWC UC Davis Aggies (15-9) vs. UC San Diego Tritons (16-9)
The 2025-26 college basketball season continues Thursday, February 12, with the UC Davis Aggies taking on the UC San Diego Tritons in the Big West Conference showdown at LionTree Arena in San Diego, CA, and we’ve got you covered with our UC Davis vs. UC San Diego prediction.
The Aggies meet the Tritons for the second time this season. Last month, UC San Diego beat UC Davis 80-74 as a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 151.5 points. Now, the Tritons are looking for their fourth straight victory over the Aggies.
Read more about this UC Davis vs. UC San Diego prediction, and check out all our NCAAB picks for Thursday’s card. The tip-off at LionTree Arena is set at 10:00 PM ET.
UC Davis eyes its fourth straight W
The UC Davis Aggies (15-9; 13-9 ATS; 12-10 O/U) have done a great job lately, winning six of their previous eight games overall. The Aggies are undefeated in three straight outings, having beaten Cal State Bakersfield 80-72, UC Santa Barbara 85-75, and Cal Poly 57-58 in the process.
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Last Saturday, the Aggies held Cal Poly to 31.6% shooting from the field. UC Davis made 36.1% of its field goals, overcoming an 8-point deficit in the second half. Freshman guard Marcus Wilson went off for 24 points, four rebounds, and three assists, while junior guard Connor Sevilla scored 19 points.
Sevilla is the Aggies’ leading scorer with 13.8 points per game. He leads the Big West in 3-point percentage (44.3%). Wilson tallies 11.4 points, 3.9 assists, and 3.5 rebounds per game, and junior guard Nils Cooper adds 13.1 points and 4.9 rebounds a night.
UC Davis is 8-5 in conference play and No. 166 in the NCAA NET Rankings. The Aggies score 109.1 points per 100 possessions (158th in the nation) and allow 109.0 points in return (189th). They are 64th in the nation in 3-point percentage (36.0%).
UC San Diego hopes to get back on track
The UC San Diego Tritons (16-9; 12-10-1 ATS; 11-12 O/U) have struggled of late, dropping four of their previous five games overall. After stopping their three-game slide with a 77-74 victory to Long Beach State, the Tritons suffered a 72-67 defeat at Hawaii this past Saturday.
The Tritons missed eight of their 18 shots from the foul line at Hawaii. Moreover, they were outrebounded 47-27 on the night, posting nine fewer offensive boards than the Rainbow Warriors (12-3). Junior guard Tom Beattie led the way for UC San Diego with 14 points, three assists, and three steals.
Beattie is one of four Tritons with points per game in double figures. He averages 10.3 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.2 assists on the season. Junior forward Leo Bath posts 13.8 points and 5.0 rebounds per game, while fellow junior F Bol Dengdit tallies 10.6 points and 5.3 boards a night.
UC San Diego is 6-7 in conference play and No. 128 in the NCAA NET Rankings. The Tritons score 107.1 points per 100 possessions (198th in the country) and surrender 104.5 points in return (90th). They are 190th in the country in 3-point percentage (33.7%).
UC Davis vs. UC San Diego Pick
Spread Pick for UC Davis vs. UC San Diego
- UC San Diego (4 units)
The Tritons are arguably a better defensive team than the Aggies, and I expect UC San Diego’s defense to make a difference in this game. As I noted above, the Aggies heavily rely on 3-pointers. However, they are turnover-prone and lack height. The Tritons should dominate the Aggies on the glass.
In their previous encounter, UC San Diego outrebounded UC Davis 48-33. The Tritons outscored the Aggies 55-44 in the second half, and freshman guard Hudson Mayes led the way for UC San Diego with 19 points and 12 rebounds off the bench.
UC San Diego is 58th in the country in opposing effective field goal percentage (48.5%). UC Davis ranks 225th in this category (52.1%).
Over/Under Pick for UC Davis vs. UC San Diego
- Under (4 units)
The previous duel between these two schools went over the total, as we saw a proper firecracker in the second half. I don’t expect the same scenario this time around. The Tritons desperately need a win, and they will bring their best defense to this game.
Moreover, neither side prefers to play at a fast pace. The Aggies will take a lot of shots from downtown, for sure, but they will struggle to score in the paint against the Tritons.
The under is 6-3 in UC Davis last nine games overall, and it is 4-1 in UC San Diego’s previous five.
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