UL Monroe vs Old Dominion Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Tuesday March 3 2026
The Sun Belt Tournament opens with urgency as UL Monroe and Old Dominion collide in Pensacola, where postseason survival is on the line. With contrasting momentum and revenge narratives in play, this matchup stands out among today’s college basketball predictions. The Warhawks have quietly been cashing tickets despite piling up losses, while the Monarchs aim to avoid another slip against the only conference foe they fell to earlier this season. Let’s break down the odds, line movement, and best betting angles.
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Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Old Dominion -10.5
- Total Pick: Over 159.5
- Projected Final Score: Old Dominion 88, UL Monroe 76
Odds and Line Movement
Opening Odds
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ricky Tran | +4,795.00 |
| 2 |  Nick Parsons | +4,721.00 |
| 3 |  Mark Ruelle | +3,688.00 |
| 4 |  David Delano | +3,140.00 |
| 5 |  Trent Bets | +2,534.00 |
| Market | UL Monroe | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +10.5 -110 | -10.5 -110 |
| Total | 159.5 | |
Current Odds
| Market | UL Monroe | Old Dominion |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +10.5 -102 | -10.5 -120 |
| Total | 159.5 | |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | UL Monroe | Old Dominion | Public (%, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03 | 07:20:54 AM | +10.5 -102 | -10.5 -120 | ODU 100%, ODU 100% |
| 03/03 | 07:01:55 AM | +10.5 -110 | -10.5 -110 | ODU 100%, ODU 100% |
| 03/03 | 06:55:09 AM | +10.5 -110 | -10.5 -110 | ODU 100%, ODU 100% |
| 03/03 | 06:38:47 AM | +10.5 -108 | -10.5 -112 | ODU 100%, ODU 100% |
| 03/02 | 04:15:37 PM | +10.5 -110 | -10.5 -110 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public (%, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03 | 07:20:54 AM | 159.5 -110 | 159.5 -110 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 03/03 | 06:55:09 AM | 159.5 -105 | 159.5 -115 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 03/03 | 06:38:47 AM | 159.5 -110 | 159.5 -114 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 03/02 | 04:15:37 PM | 159.5 -115 | 159.5 -105 |
UL Monroe
It has been a long season for the Warhawks, who enter at 4-27 overall and 1-17 in Sun Belt play. Still, there is a betting wrinkle worth noting. Even while losing games, UL Monroe has covered eight of its last eleven spreads. That trend suggests competitive stretches even if final results fall short.
Interestingly, the Warhawks’ lone conference win came against Old Dominion four weeks ago in Norfolk, an 85-79 decision that shocked the Monarchs on their home floor. That result adds intrigue to this postseason rematch, especially in a neutral-site environment where defensive intensity can fluctuate.
Old Dominion
Old Dominion appears to have stabilized after that setback. The Monarchs won four of their next seven games outright following the February 4 loss to UL Monroe, with victories coming against teams stronger than the Warhawks. Margin expansion against a limited Georgia State squad further supports the notion that ODU regained footing.
KC Shaw has provided offensive spark, averaging 17.1 points per game and surpassing 20 points per contest throughout February before foul trouble limited him last weekend. Even so, Old Dominion secured the win, highlighting improved balance and resilience.
UL Monroe vs Old Dominion
Revenge serves as motivation, but the larger factor may be consistency. Old Dominion has trended toward higher-scoring contests, going over the total in 10 of its last 13 games since mid-January. In tournament settings where pressure loosens defensive discipline, that offensive momentum becomes even more valuable.
Betting Trends: ULM and ODU
UL Monroe has covered eight of its last eleven games despite losing most of them outright. Old Dominion, meanwhile, has seen the over cash in 10 of its last 13 games, reflecting a shift toward offensive production.
The previous meeting between these teams produced 164 total points, surpassing the current number. With tournament stakes and recent scoring trends aligning, tempo could once again favor offense.
Key Injuries and Notes: ULM and ODU
Old Dominion’s KC Shaw has been in strong scoring form, even with occasional foul concerns. UL Monroe’s recent ATS resilience contrasts sharply with its straight-up struggles, creating a unique dynamic entering this play-in clash.
The Monarchs carry the added edge of revenge after their earlier home loss, a factor that often sharpens focus in tournament rematches.
ATS and Total Picks
Old Dominion’s improved form and revenge motivation support laying the points. While UL Monroe has covered spreads lately, the Monarchs’ offensive surge and superior results against stronger opponents provide separation.
Given Old Dominion’s 10-3 over run and the prior high-scoring meeting, the total leans toward another over result.
- ATS Pick: Old Dominion -10.5
- Total Pick: Over 159.5
Final Score Prediction
Old Dominion 88, UL Monroe 76
How to Bet
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