UMass vs. Florida State Preview, Picks and Prediction, Saturday, December 13, 2025
Use Code WWWC On Saturday, the Massachusetts Minutemen will visit the FSU Seminoles at Donald L. Tucker Civic Center, and we have you ready to go with our UMass vs. Florida State prediction, odds, and preview. Tip-off from Tallahassee, FL, is at noon ET.
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UMass enters Saturday's game with momentum
Massachusetts (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS, and 5-5 O/U) has won four straight and covered the spread in each game. The Minutemen beat Boston College 76-74 on Wednesday, a back-and-forth game with several scoring swings. UMass led by as many as 14 points in the second half, but BC closed the gap and took the lead with a 23-2 run. The Minutemen finished strong, though, as senior guard Marcus Banks Jr. led the way with a season-high 29 points.
UMass averages 78.0 points (224th) on 46.2 percent shooting (147th), including 33.0 percent from beyond the arc (207th). Defensively, the Minutemen allow 71.5 points per game (104th) on 43.6 percent shooting (190th), including 26.0 percent from three-point distance (7th). Massachusetts ranks 175th in NET rating, including 251st in offensive efficiency and 116th in defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
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The UMBC transfer Banks Jr. leads UMass in scoring, averaging 18.4 points on 45.0 percent shooting. He knocks down 39.8 percent of his three-point attempts and 82.1 percent of his free throws. A few other Minutemen to watch on Saturday against Florida State are senior forward Leonardo Bettiol (16.0 PPG and 8.1 RPG), senior forward Daniel Hankins-Sanford (10.9 PPG and 5.5 RPG), and junior guard K'Jei Parker (10.6 PPG and 2.9 APG).
UMass Minutemen Injury Report:
- No injuries to report.
FSU has not fared well against top competition
Florida State (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, and 3-6 O/U) has dropped three straight games, losing by double digits to Texas A&M (95-59), Georgia (107-73), and Houston (82-67). They were slight favorites against the Aggies and Bulldogs, and were 13-point underdogs against the Cougars. The Seminoles shot 39 percent in the loss to Houston, a game they trailed from start to finish. They also turned the ball over 19 times.
FSU scores 84.2 points (133rd) on 41.7 percent shooting (316th), including 31.5 percent from beyond the arc (261st). Defensively, the Seminoles allow 78.4 points per game (231st) on 43.7 percent shooting (203rd), including 33.9 percent from three-point distance (246th). Florida State ranks 96th in NET rating, including 124th in offensive efficiency and 78th in defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
Senior guard Robert McCray V leads FSU in scoring, averaging 14.1 points on 42.5 percent shooting. He also averages 6.8 assists and 1.7 steals per game. A few other Seminoles to watch against UMass are senior forward Chauncey Wiggins (13.6 PPG and 5.5 RPG), senior guard Lajae Jones (12.7 PPG and 4.4 RPG), and senior forward Alex Steen (8.5 PPG and 7.1 RPG).
Florida State Seminoles Injury Report:
- F Alex Steen (8.5 PPG and 7.1 RPG) is questionable to play vs UMass due to a groin injury.
UMass vs. Florida State Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for UMass vs. FSU
- Seminoles -10.5 (4 Units)
These teams have been heading in different directions recently, but it's important to consider the quality of opponents. UMass has won four straight but has faced the ninth-easiest schedule in the country, while FSU has played three straight Power 4 opponents, including a top-ten Houston team. I'm also hesitant to back a Minutemen team that nearly blew a double-digit second-half lead last game.
The Seminoles boast length that will force UMass into turnovers. That's already been an issue for the visitors, who average 14.3 per game. FSU is also well-equipped to make the most of those turnovers, ranking 12th nationally in potential quick points off breakaway steals vs. the average opponent, per Haslametrics. Massachusetts' depth concerns me, as well. Six players average 20-plus minutes, and none of their reserves contribute more than 3.6 points per game.
Back the Seminoles at home on Saturday!
Over/Under Pick for UMass vs. Florida State
- Over 160.5 (4 Units)
Florida State is eager to bounce back after a string of losses and will be well-rested after a week off. The Seminoles love to push the pace, ranking 10th nationally in schedule-adjusted tempo, and will have plenty of fast-break scoring chances against the turnover-prone Minutemen (330th in potential quick points allowed off breakaway steals). The Noles love to shoot the three-ball (9th-highest three-point attempt rate), but expect them to test UMass' soft interior defense (303rd in opponent near-proximity shooting percentage) more often than usual at home on Saturday.
The visitors won't try to slow things down (19th in adjusted tempo), and it wouldn't surprise me if they also scored 20-plus fast-break points, as the home team has also been careless with the basketball (12.6 per game). UMass has faced a weak schedule, but it does have non-conference wins over Oregon State and Boston College. Saturday's game will be its final non-con opportunity of the season against a Power 4 opponent, and I expect the Minutemen to ride their momentum, keeping the score close for most of the game.
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