UNC Wilmington Seahawks vs Yale Bulldogs Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, March 17, 2026
Use Code WWWC UNC Wilmington travels to the John J. Lee Amphitheater in New Haven, Connecticut, for a 7:00 PM ET start in the first round of the NIT. The Seahawks are 26-6 overall after finishing first in the CAA at 15-4, while Yale is 24-6 overall after going 12-4 in Ivy League play and winning the regular-season title. UNC Wilmington dropped its most recent game, 85-70, to Campbell, while Yale fell 88-84 in overtime to Penn in the Ivy League tournament. Be sure to get ready for all the college tournament action with our free college basketball picks.
UNC Wilmington has the Size to make Yale work
UNC Wilmington averages 77.0 points per game and shoots 44.6% from the field, but the strongest part of the Seahawks game is rebounding. UNC Wilmington pulls down 40.0 rebounds per game, well above Yale’s 35.0, and that starts with Patrick Wessler. Wessler averages 13.8 points and 9.6 rebounds, and his recent form has been even better with averages of 14.7 points and 10.5 rebounds over the last 10 games. Wessler gives UNC Wilmington a real interior strength and can create second shots, with offensive boards, against a Yale team that is sound but strong on the glass.
Nolan Hodge leads the Seahawks with an average of 14.4 points per game and shoots 39.5% from three, giving UNC Wilmington a perimeter scorer who can punish defenses when they collapse on Wessler. Greedy Williams adds 9.3 points and a team-high 4.2 assists, while Christian May chips in with averages of 10.5 points and 5.5 rebounds. The Seahawks are balanced, but the offense can stall when Hodge is forced into contested jumpers, and the guards are not hitting from outside. Defensively, UNC Wilmington is solid. The Seahawks have allowed 69.2 points per game over the last 10, and they can control tempo when Wessler owns the paint, and the guards keep turnovers to a minimum.
Key Injuries - UNC Wilmington Seahawks
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- Gavin Walsh, Game Time Decision (Knee)
- CJ Luster, Out For Season (Undisclosed)
Yale’s Half-Court Offense is Tough to Stop
Yale averages 81.7 points per game, shoots 49.9% from the field, and plays with more structure than most teams. Nick Townsend is the center of the offense, averaging 16.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 4.2 assists while shooting 50.8% from the floor and 47.8% from three. That kind of production from a forward changes the matchup because Townsend can score inside, start the offense from the elbow, and force help that opens the floor for teammates. Yale also gets strong support from Isaac Celiscar, who averages 12.7 points and 5.9 rebounds, and Trevor Mullin, who adds 11.3 points and shoots 39.7% from three.
The Bulldogs move the ball better than UNC Wilmington, averaging 16.2 assists per game, and take care of it with only 9.3 turnovers per contest. Yale also comes in hot offensively despite the loss to Penn, scoring 88 points against Cornell and 78 against Princeton before that. The concern is defensive rebounding against a strong UNC-Wilmington frontcourt. Yale does not dominate the glass, and UNC Wilmington has enough size to create extra possessions. However, Yale’s offense is more versatile and usually less dependent on one style of scoring than UNC Wilmington’s attack.
Key Injuries - Yale Bulldogs
Yale does not have any players listed on its injury report.
UNC Wilmington vs Yale Pick - Spread
- Yale
Yale’s offensive execution gives the Bulldogs the edge here. Yale’s Townsend is the best all-around player on the floor, and the Bulldogs have multiple shooters around him who can stretch UNC Wilmington’s defense. The Seahawks will stay close thanks to their strength on the boards and keep the game physical, but Yale’s shot quality and ball movement are better. UNC Wilmington also comes in off a longer layoff after a conference tournament loss, while Yale has stayed game-fresh. Yale will control the tempo of the game and open a lead late. Take Yale to cover the number.
UNC Wilmington vs Yale - Over/Under Pick
- Over
The total depends on whether UNC Wilmington can score efficiently in the half-court, but this matchup still points toward the over. Yale averages 81.7 points per game and has been productive over the last 10 games, while UNC Wilmington has enough rebounding and perimeter shooting to contribute its share. Yale’s spacing should force defensive rotations, while UNC Wilmington will attack early in the shot clock and generate second-chance points. With both teams capable of getting into the mid-70s, the over is the better play.
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