UNLV vs. Utah State Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, January 20, 2026
Use Code WWWC On Tuesday, the UNLV Runnin' Rebels will face the Utah State Aggies on the hardwood, and we have you ready to go with our UNLV vs. Utah State prediction, odds, and preview. Tip-off from Logan, UT, is at 11:00 p.m. ET.
The Aggies are 16.5-point spread favorites, and the game total is 156.5 points scored.
Utah State won two of its three matchups with UNLV last season and has won eight of the last ten in the series (5-5 ATS). The over/under was also split 5-5 in those games. If you want the UNLV vs. Utah State prediction, read on to get our top NCAAB predictions and increase your bankroll!
UNLV has some momentum, but can they sustain it?
UNLV (9-8 SU, 8-8 ATS, and 8-8 O/U) beat San Jose State 76-62 in its previous game. The Runnin' Rebels, who are 4-2 in MWC play this season, dominated the Spartans from start to finish. They shot 54 percent from the field and 48 percent from beyond the arc, with 30 points in the paint. SJSU kept the game relatively close with 18 made free throws and 13 offensive rebounds, but only made 19 field goals.
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Junior guard Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn leads the Runnin' Rebels in scoring at 16.8 points per game. He shoots 46.9 percent from the field and 35.7 percent from three-point range. A few other UNLV players to watch on Tuesday against Utah State are senior forward Kimani Hamilton (12.5 PPG and 4.6 RPG), freshman forward Tyrin Jones (10.7 PPG and 5.1 RPG), and freshman guard Issac Williamson (10.5 PPG).
UNLV averages 78.9 points per game (178th) on 45.8 percent shooting (157th), including 30.7 percent from three-point range (328th). The Rebels' defense surrenders 76.4 points per game (193rd) on 43.8 percent shooting (186th), including 32.6 percent from beyond the arc (143rd). KenPom ranks UNLV 136th nationally, including 135th in offensive efficiency rating and 143rd in defensive efficiency rating.
UNLV Runnin' Rebels Injury Report:
- No injuries to report.
Utah State seeks a bounce-back win
Utah State (15-2 SU, 8-8 ATS, and 9-7 O/U) lost its first conference game of the season on the road last week, falling 84-74 to Grand Canyon. The Aggies trailed for 95 percent of the game, as they were off the mark (36 percent FG%), especially from three-point distance (7-for-28). The Lopes knocked down 51 percent of their field goals and added 23 points at the foul line.
The Aggies were picked to finish second in the Mountain West's preseason poll. They are led by second-year coach Ben McCollum, who compiled a 26-8 record last season, leading the team to the NCAA Tournament. Utah State scores 85.3 points per game (69th) on 51.6 percent shooting (9th), including 37.6 percent from deep (29th). Defensively, the Aggies allow 67.8 points per game (28th) on 40.5 percent shooting (42nd), including 32.7 percent from long range (150th).
Utah State is led by senior guard MJ Collins Jr., a transfer who spent two seasons at Virginia Tech and one with Vanderbilt. He is averaging 19.6 points per game on 54.9 percent shooting, including 44.2 percent from three-point range. A few other Aggies to watch in Tuesday's MWC game against UNLV are junior guard Mason Falsev (16.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG, and 2.5 SPG), senior forward Garry Clark (8.6 PPG and 5.9 RPG), and senior guard Kolby King (8.5 PPG and 3.4 RPG).
Utah State Aggies Injury Report:
- No injuries to report.
UNLV vs. Utah State Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for UNLV vs. Utah State
- Rebels +16.5 (4 Units)
This spread is too large, as the Aggies are coming off a disappointing upset loss and have failed to cover the spread in four of their last six, including two straight. The Runnin' Rebels covered in their previous two games and enter Tuesday's matchup ranked 41st nationally in defensive momentum, per Haslametrics. On the other end of the court, I anticipate UNLV to keep the score close with its ability to get to the foul line. The Rebels rank 15th nationally in free-throw attempt rate, and the Aggies foul too often, ranking 221st in opponent FT attempt rate.
Utah State has been inconsistent (ranked 363rd in Haslametrics' Consistency rating) and is just 4-5 ATS as double-digit favorites this season. The Aggies are a good team capable of bouncing back from their loss to the Lopes, but I won't back them against the spread on Tuesday.
Over/Under Pick for UNLV vs. Utah State
- Over 156.5 (5 Units)
The Runnin' Rebels will live up to their nickname on Tuesday, pushing the pace and encouraging a high-scoring game. They are among the fastest-tempo teams in college hoops (46th in schedule-adjusted tempo), and should lengthen the game even more with their ability to get to the charity stripe. The Aggies aren't much slower-paced, and despite a couple of subpar performances in their past two games, they rank tenth in the nation in offensive momentum (scored 93 or more points in four of their previous five games). UNLV has been playing sound defense lately, but Utah State is dominant in the paint (36th in near-proximity FG% with the third-highest near-proximity attempt rate). The Aggies also make the most of their offensive rebounds, ranking 1st nationally in second-chance conversion percentage versus the average opponent.
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