USC Trojans vs Iowa Hawkeyes Picks and Prediction for Wednesday January 28, 2026
Use Code WWWC Big Ten action continues Wednesday night as USC (15-5, 4-5 B10) heads to Iowa City to take on the Hawkeyes. Iowa (14-5, 4-4 B10) opens as a 9.5-point home favorite. Last season, USC beat Iowa 99–89 as a three-point home favorite, and this Trojans roster brings similar offensive firepower into this spot.
USC enters No. 50 nationally in KenPom, while Iowa sits at No. 21.
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Arenas has arrived
USC has been one of the more efficient yet overlooked teams in the Big Ten. The Trojans rank No. 72 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (116.8) and combine that with a balanced scoring profile. They aren’t overly reliant on the three, but they punish teams inside and live at the free-throw line, ranking No. 3 nationally in free-throw rate.
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The offense runs through Chad Baker-Mazara, who leads the team with 19.1 points per game, shooting 36.9% from three and 91.2% at the free-throw line. His ability to score at all three levels makes him difficult to scheme against. Inside, Ezra Ausar has been a quiet efficiency monster, averaging 16.2 points on 60.5% shooting, while Jacob Cofie anchors the frontcourt with 7.3 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game.
A key storyline is the return of Alijah Arenas, son of Gilbert Arenas, who has appeared in the last two games after missing the start of the season due to injury. The freshman guard has obvious upside but has struggled offensively early, averaging 7.5 points on just 22.2% shooting. Even so, his athleticism and defensive potential add another dimension to USC’s rotation.
Defensively, USC is solid but not elite, ranking No. 45 in defensive efficiency (101.1). The Trojans do protect the rim well (15.2% block rate, No. 11 nationally) and rebound adequately, which matters against an Iowa team that prefers half-court execution. With depth, size, and free-throw pressure, USC is built to stay competitive even as a road underdog.
Iowa strong at home
Iowa has earned its No. 21 KenPom ranking behind one of the most efficient offenses in the country. The Hawkeyes rank No. 37 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (121.1) and are lethal shooting the basketball, posting a 58.5% effective field-goal percentage (No. 9). They excel both inside (60.3% on two-pointers, No. 8) and beyond the arc (37.3% from three, No. 34).
The offense is led by Bennett Stirtz, who averages 18.3 points and 5.0 assists per game while shooting 36.8% from three and 82.6% from the line. He’s surrounded by shooting and secondary playmaking, including Tavion Banks (55.0% from three) and Alvaro Folgueiras (39.3% from three), making Iowa difficult to guard when the ball starts moving.
Tempo is the trade-off. Iowa plays slow, ranking No. 338 nationally in adjusted tempo, and uses long possessions (19.1 seconds per possession, No. 341) to break teams down. Defensively, the Hawkeyes are disciplined and opportunistic, forcing turnovers at a 22.5% rate (No. 6 nationally).
The concern when laying a big number is margin creation. Iowa prefers control over pace, which limits blowout potential. While they are 10–1 at home, their slower tempo often allows underdogs to hang around. Against a USC team that can score efficiently and get to the line, Iowa may win—but separating by double digits is a taller task.
USC Trojans vs Iowa Hawkeyes Predictons
USC Trojans vs Iowa Hawkeyes ATS Pick:
- USC +9.5 (4 units)
USC offers strong value given matchup dynamics and offensive balance. The Trojans rank No. 72 in offensive efficiency and are elite at drawing fouls (No. 3 nationally in free-throw rate), a key equalizer on the road. USC has already proven it can handle Iowa, beating the Hawkeyes 99–89 last season, and this roster brings similar scoring punch.
Iowa’s slow tempo (No. 338 nationally) works against covering large spreads, especially against teams that can score without relying heavily on transition. USC is also 4–2 on the road, showing it can travel. Even if Iowa controls the game late, USC’s ability to score at the stripe and through multiple creators should keep this within the number.
USC Trojans vs Iowa Hawkeyes Total Prediction:
- Over 141.5 (4 units)
The is the stronger total angle despite Iowa’s slow pace. The Hawkeyes rank No. 37 in offensive efficiency and No. 9 in effective field-goal percentage, while USC brings a top-75 offense that consistently generates free throws. Iowa’s shooting efficiency combined with USC’s foul pressure creates a path to points even in longer possessions.
USC games tend to creep Over when the Trojans can dictate physicality, and Iowa’s defense—while solid—is not built to keep teams off the line. With multiple high-efficiency shooters on both sides and USC’s willingness to push when opportunities arise, this total sits slightly too low. If the game stays competitive into the final minutes, free throws alone could push this one past the number.
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