Utah State Aggies at South Florida Bulls, Picks and Prediction, Thursday, December 4, 2025
Use Code WWWC Utah State (7-0) travels to Tampa on Thursday night looking to extend its undefeated start against a South Florida (4-4) team eager to bounce back on its home floor.
The Aggies have surged behind efficiency and balance on both ends of the floor, while the Bulls have already played a challenging early-season slate and look to get above .500. Check out more free college basketball picks at Winners and Whiners.
Utah State still undefeated
Utah State enters this matchup rated 36th overall by KenPom and undefeated. The team's Division I wins this season include VCU, Weber State, UTEP, Tulane, Davidson, and an 84-81 win over Montana State this past Saturday.
As a team, the Aggies boast an excellent 118.9 adjusted offensive efficiency (36th according to KenPom) and are excelling at all three scoring levels. Their 58.3% effective field-goal rate ranks among the nation’s best, driven by a 60.7% mark inside the arc and a solid 36.2% clip from three-point range. Utah State combines that scoring efficiency with discipline, turning the ball over on just 17.4% of possessions while generating a strong 42.7 free-throw rate. Defensively, the Aggies sit at 100.3 adjusted efficiency (50th), thriving through disruptive play and a top-five national steal rate (16.2%).
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Individually, the star has been MJ Collins Jr., averaging 21.3 points on elite shooting efficiency, including 62.2% from the field and 52.2% from three. Utah State features three additional double-digit scorers, including Mason Falslev (13.7 ppg) and Garry Clark (11.3 ppg), who anchors the interior with 8.7 rebounds per game.
New era for USF
South Florida is led by head coach Bryan Hogson, who led Arkansas State to a 25-11 record last season. Last season, the Bulls went just 13-19, but right before the season, they dealt with the shocking passing of 43-year-old head coach Amir Abdur-Rahim, which led to interim Ben Fletcher leading the way.
South Florida enters Thursday’s matchup coming off an 83–68 loss to Colorado State last Friday. That defeat, however, came in the Bulls’ third game in three days. USF’s resume features wins over Florida A&M, Coppin State, Kennesaw State, and Western Kentucky, with its other losses coming against George Washington, Oklahoma State, and VCU.
Despite the underwhelming start, USF has shown excellent balance with five players averaging double figures. Josh Omojafo (15.3 ppg) leads the scoring efforts while shooting 49.3% from the field and 36.4% from three. CJ Brown has been one of the most complete guards in the AAC, posting 14.1 points, 5.3 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. Joseph Pinion (13.5 ppg) and Wes Enis (12.5 ppg) provide additional scoring and defensive pressure on the perimeter, while 6'10 forward Izaiyah Nelson (12.6 ppg) has emerged as a force inside, leading the team with 9.3 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game.
USF likes to get up and down the court, ranking 12th in adjusted tempo. The Bulls are also No. 91 according to KenPom overall. They come in at 88th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 105th on defense.
Utah State Aggies vs. South Florida Bulls
Utah State vs USF ATS Pick:
- USF +1.5 (4 units)
Despite Utah State’s undefeated record and better metrics, this matchup sets up favorably for USF. The Bulls have played a significantly tougher schedule (67th vs. 194th KenPom), and their recent loss to Colorado State came against a team with an extremely different style of play, as the Bulls were on their third game in three days.
Now with fresher legs, the home-court advantage, and balanced scoring, we should see a solid game from the Bulls. USF has the physicality and defensive length to disrupt Utah State’s shooting, and the Aggies should also run into some regression as this is their first true road game. I like the home dog here.
Pick for Utah State vs USF
- Under 163.5 (4 units)
Although the Bulls want to get out and run, and Utah State plays at a solid pace as well, this total still feels too high. Utah State has played some neutral site games this season, but this will be its first actual road game, and I expect that to lead to lower offensive production on their side. As for USF, they will be hungry for a win here, and they will have to bring it on the defensive end to take down this Utah State team. I expect this game to stay below 160 and will go under.
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