Utah State vs. Charlotte 49ers, Picks and Prediction for Sunday December 7, 2025
Use Code WWWC After losing their first true road game of the season on Thursday, Utah State (7-1) now travels to North Carolina for an early tip-off against the Charlotte 49ers (4-5).
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Coming off first loss
Utah State enters this matchup rated 43rd overall by KenPom and undefeated. The team's Division I wins this season include VCU, Weber State, UTEP, Tulane, Davidson, and an 84-81 win over Montana State. The Aggies are coming off their first true road game, however, and it did not go well as they lost to South Florida 74-61 in a game that was close to a pick 'em, according to the oddsmakers.
As a team, the Aggies have been strong on both sides of the ball, ranking 43rd according to KenPom overall. They are 54th in adjusted offensive efficiency. They are 50th shooting 57.6% from inside the arch and 117th knocking down 35.1% from three-point range. Defensively, the Aggies sit at 49th in adjusted efficiency and have third third-best steal rate (15.5%) in the country.
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Individually, the star has been MJ Collins Jr., who averages 21 ppg while shooting 58.9% from the field, 50% from three, and 93.9% from the free-throw line. Utah State features three additional double-digit scorers, including Mason Falslev (14.4 ppg) and Garry Clark (10.4 ppg), who anchors the interior with 8.4 rebounds per game.
Mediocre start
After going 19–12 in Aaron Fearne’s first season, the Charlotte 49ers took a major step backward last year, finishing 11–22. Fearne is now in his third season trying to stabilize the program and steer it back toward the form it showed two years ago.
According to KenPom, Charlotte comes into this matchup ranked 182nd nationally. Offensively, they’ve actually been the stronger unit so far. The 49ers sit 140th in offensive efficiency, and they’ve shown real toughness on the glass—ranking 48th in offensive rebounding percentage. They’re also shooting the ball well from deep, hitting 36.5% from three, good for 70th in the country. Despite some positives, several weaknesses continue to hold this team back. Charlotte has struggled mightily at the free-throw line (337th, 64.3%), and their defensive numbers have been a much larger concern. The 49ers sit 258th in adjusted defensive efficiency and have had issues generating turnovers; they rank just 319th in steal rate at 7.4%. Their extremely slow tempo (362nd nationally) does help keep scores manageable, but they still give up too many clean looks and fail to create disruption.
Anton Bonke, a 7’2 center who transferred in from Providence, has been a bright spot, averaging 8.7 rebounds and 11.3 points per game. Their leading scorer is 6’5” guard Ben Bradford, who puts up 15.3 points per game, though he’s shooting just 29% from three.
Utah State Aggies at Charlotte 49ers Predictions
Utah State vs Charlotte ATS Picks:
- Utah State -10.5 (4 units)
At first glance, laying double digits with a road team on the East Coast in an early tip-off looks uncomfortable. But the situational spot actually favors Utah State. The Aggies already played in this region on Thursday against South Florida, so the time-zone adjustment and travel fatigue should be far less of an issue. I faded Utah State in that game, but this is a very different setup.
Coming off that loss, I expect a sharper and more dialed-in performance. This is also a clear step down in competition. Charlotte has pieces and long-term potential, but right now, they’re inconsistent, turnover-prone, and difficult to trust for a full 40 minutes. Utah State’s defensive activity and their ability to force turnovers should create scoring swings that Charlotte simply can’t match.
Utah State is the more complete, disciplined, and reliable team on both ends. In a matchup where their pressure defense is likely to dictate the pace, I’m siding with the Aggies to cover the number.
Utah State vs Charlotte Total Pick:
- Over 141.5 (4 units)
Even though Charlotte prefers a slower pace, Utah State sits right on the quicker half of the country in adjusted tempo, and their style tends to get opponents into playing faster than they’d like. Charlotte’s defensive flaws make that even more likely. If they fall behind, as I expect, they’ll have no choice but to push in the second half.
Both offenses can shoot the ball from deep, and that alone raises the scoring ceiling. Charlotte’s offensive rebounding will also produce second-chance opportunities. On the other side, Utah State’s knack for creating steals and turning defense into offense should generate easy buckets.
I see enough paths for this to get over the total.
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