Virginia Cavaliers vs. NC State Wolfpack Picks and Prediction for Saturday, January 3rd, 2025
The Virginia Cavaliers (11-2, 7-6 ATS, 7-6 O/U) take on the NC State Wolfpack (10-4, 8-6 ATS, 7-7 O/U) in an ACC showdown on Saturday afternoon, and we have you covered with the prediction. The Cavaliers dropped a road clash against Virginia Tech on Wednesday. The Wolfpack issued a win against Wake Forest in their first conference game of the season. Each team recorded one win in last year’s season series.
Can the Cavaliers extend their winning streak with a road win on Saturday afternoon? Check out the Virginia vs NC State prediction. Do you need a boost in your handicapping? Try our NCAAB Picks!
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Virginia Hit with Defeat vs. Hokies
The Virginia Cavaliers are one of the hottest teams in the country. Virginia has dropped just one game in a defeat against Butler. The Cavaliers have posted wins against good teams in Texas and Dayton.
The Cavaliers began ACC play with a 95-85 triple overtime road defeat against Virginia Tech on Wednesday in a game that had the Cavaliers marked as six-point favorites. Virginia was off with its shooting in the defeat, managing a 36% efficiency, and kept the Hokies to a 35% mark. The Cavaliers have covered the spread in two of their past five games.
Thijs De Ridder is having an outstanding season. The freshman center scored 22 points in the conference opener against Virginia Tech. De Ridder has reached 20 points in seven games and has delivered an average of 16.1 PPG and 6 RPG on the year. Malik Thomas has shot at least 50% in just two of his last five games. The senior guard has recorded an average of 11.1 PPG on the season.
Chance Mallory has been steady, sinking 50% of his shots in three of his last six games. The freshman guard has issued an average of 11.1 PPG and 3.6 APG. Jacari White did not play in the win against the Hokies due to a wrist injury and is questionable. The senior guard is averaging 10.9 PPG on 49% shooting on the year. Sam Lewis has posted double digits in two of his past five games. The junior guard has registered 9.6 PPG.
The Cavaliers are ranked 26th in DI in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings. They climbed twos spot to #21 in the recent edition of the AP Top 25. Virginia stands at 1-1 on the road this season. They are averaging 87 points on the season, ranking them 79th. The Cavaliers have conceded more than 70 points in three of their past five games. They are keeping opponents to 68.7 points, placing them 58th
NC State Targets 11th Win of Season
The NC State Wolfpack are seeking their 11th win of the season. NC State is having a promising season in what’s been a tough schedule. NC State has won three straight games. They posted a home win against Texas Southern, along with a 76-62 home win against Mississippi State of the SEC, before the break.
Next, the Wolfpack recorded a 70-57 home win against Wake Forest on Wednesday to begin conference action. They were tabbed 10-point favorites. NC State sank 42% of its shots in the win and kept W.F. to a 35% mark. The Wolfpack have covered the spread in three of their past five games,
Darrion Williams is having an inconsistent season. The senior forward has scored 11 or fewer points in five of his past six games. Williams amassed eight points on Wednesday and is sporting an average of 14.2 PPG on the season. Paul McNeil Jr. has been a threat, sinking 19 or more points in two of his past three games. The sophomore guard has netted an average of 14.2 PPG.
Quadir Copelan has connected on 50% of his shots in three of his last five games. The senior guard is averaging 14.1 PPG on 59% shooting. Ven-Allen Lubin has posted at least 12 points in five of his last six games. The senior forward is averaging 13.1 PPG. Jerry Deng did not play in the win on Wednesday. The sophomore guard has netted an average of 6.1 PPG,
The Wolfpack are positioned 24th in the country in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings. They have been hard to beat at home, where they are 7-1 on the year. NC State is scoring an average of 87 points on the season, marking them 78th. The Wolfpack have conceded 62 or fewer points in three of their past five games and is conceding an average of 71.1 points, placing them 90th in the country.
Virginia vs NC State Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,209.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +2,157.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +1,788.00 |
| 4 |  Terry Edelmann | +1,591.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,480.00 |
Spread pick for Virginia vs. NC State
- Virginia Cavaliers +3.5 (5 units)
The Virginia Cavaliers have won all but two games this season. This includes big wins against Dayton and Maryland. They lost their ACC opener, but it was in OT. The NC State Wolfpack have not been quite as threatening when up against tough opponents. They have lost bouts against Texas and Auburn, to name a few.
Furthermore, Virginia has the offense and defense to win this game. Virginia is averaging 121.9 points per 100 possessions, ranking them 17th in DI in adjusted offensive efficiency compared to 120.2 points per 100 by NC State. When it comes to defense, the Cavaliers do not give up many threes. Opponents are only shooting 30.9% from deep against them. This is key when considering that NC State takes a ton of threes, averaging 28 three-point attempts per game. Virginia is winning by big margins. Five of the Cavaliers' past six wins have been by 13 or more points.
Over/Under Pick for Virginia vs. NC State
- Over 155 (5 units)
I expect a barrage of scoring. Virginia is one of the top offensive teams in the country. They are shooting a dazzling 37.5% from beyond the arc. This is key against a Wolfpack defense that is rated 142nd in DI in three-point defense.
In addition, NC State is also a threat in the offensive end. They have scored at least 75 points in five of their past six games, including 108 points against Texas Southern. They play at a quicker pace, ranking top third in adjusted tempo. The Cavaliers' defense is a strength, but they have not been matched up against many strong offensive squads. The over is a convincing 5-0 in the Cavaliers’ past five road games.
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