Virginia vs. Ohio State, Picks and Prediction for Saturday, February 14, 2026
Use Code WWWC We have a rare non-conference matchup in February in this Virginia vs. Ohio State prediction. This rare matchup is entitled the Nashville Hoops Showdown and will tip off at around 8 PM EST on Saturday. No. 15 Virginia (21-3, 13-11 ATS) is in a very good position when it comes to earning a berth to the NCAA Tournament. Ohio State (16-8, 10-14 ATS) may have some work to do when it comes to getting to the Big Dance and that's what this Showdown is supposed to do: enhance your tournament resume'. Check out more free College Basketball Predictions at Winners and Whiners.
Odom has changed the way the Cavs play
Ryan Odom is most known for taking UMBC to the NCAA Tournament in 2018 nd shocking Virginia in the first round to become the first 16th seed to defeat a No. 1 seed. He wound up at Utah State and then VCU, before taking over for Tony Bennett, who retired right before the 2024-25 season. Ron Sanchez took over on an interim basis and UVa went from 362nd in pace of play to 361. This season, they rank 299th in Adjusted Tempo, which is a lot faster than past Cavaliers' teams and slightly slower than Odom's teams at VCU played (246th last year).
The key isn't just tempo, but efficiency on offense. Last season, Virginia (15-17), was 103rd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. This season, they are 30th in Adjusted Offense and 17th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Cavs have won five straight games coming into this game, with their only loss in 2025 coming against UNC (85-80) at home on Jan. 24.
Freshman Thijs De Ridder, (6-9, 238), a 23-year-old forward from Belgium, leads the Cavs with 16.1 points and 6.6 rebounds, while shooting 52.1% from the field. Guard Malik Thomas adds 12.2 points and 4.0 rebounds, while shooting 40.2% from the field. Virginia is shooting 46.3% from the field and 35.5% from three-point range, while averaging 81.9 points per game. They also rank 12th in total rebounding percentage.
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Big game for Ohio State
The Buckeyes come into this game at 40th in Net Rankings, which means they are on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. OSU bounced back from getting dominated by No. 2 Michigan 89-82 last Sunday to down USC on Wednesday, 89-82. That placed them at 8-6 in Big 10 play, which could be enough to get in if the season ended, considering they play in a great conference.
In the victory over the Trojans on Wednesday, Bruce Thornton led the way with 21 points and made all of his free throws. He also scored the final eight points of the game and added eight dimes and six boards. While the Buckeyes have not been consistent, winning six of their last 10 games, Thornton has been consistent this season (19.3ppg, 5.3rpg, 3.8apg, 38.5% 3pt) and over the last four seasons, averaging double digits in each year and shooting over 50% from the field and and 40.7% from the three-point line over the last two seasons.
On KenPom, the Buckeyes rank 42nd overall, 22nd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 81st in Adjsuted Defense. In terms of the glass, OSU ranks 82nd in total rebounding percentage. On the injury front, forward Brandon Noel (foot), who averages 7.4 points and 4.1 rebounds, is out indefinitely.
Spread Picks and Odds for Virginia vs. Ohio State
Virginia vs. Ohio State Picks and Prediction
- Ohio State +4.5 (5 units)
I remember the old Bracket Buster games and I don't think we'll ever see that again, but they didn't really help the mid-majors. This game is not for mid-majors, but it is very important for a bubble team like Ohio State. Ohio State is 1-7 against Quad 1 teams, and if they find themselves at .500 in Big 10 play, they might not get in the field. This is a huge game for them, and Virginia can afford to lose because they are 4-2 against Q 1 teams and 7-1 against Quad 2s. They are also 7-1 on the road and 2-1 in neutral site games, which the committee loves. The Bucekeys are shooting 49% from the field and 34.1% from three-point range. They'll keep this close and ultimately take the game outright since they have more motivation.
Over/Under Pick for Virginia vs. Ohio State
- Over 145.5 (4 units)
Even though Virginia's pace isn't great, their efficiency is. This is a squad that used to be involved in a lot of rock fights (games in the 60's or lower), but they are now averaging 81.9 points per game overall, while Ohio State is allowing 74 points. The Buckeyes are no slouch on offense, averaging 81.6 points per game and 85.4 points per game away from home.
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