Wichita State Shockers vs. Memphis Tigers Picks and Prediction for Thursday, February 26 2026
Use Code WWWC The AAC is on tap on Thursday, in Tennessee at 9 PM ET, led by this Wichita State vs. Memphis prediction. The Shockers won the first meeting 74-59 as a 3.5-point favorite on Jan. 24. Wichita State (22-6, 10-5 AAC) has had a fine season, but it is 86th in the latest NET Rankings and will need to win the conference tournament to make an appearance in the Big Dance. They are tied with Tulsa for second place in the AAC, while Memphis (12-15, 7-7 AAC) is having a disappointing season, ranking tied for seventh with Temple. Check out more great free College Basketball Picks and NBA predictions at Winners and Whiners.
Closing the season on a strong note
Wichita State could be the team to beat heading into the AAC Tournament. They've won three straight games and five of their last six. Their only blemish in that run was a 66-58 home loss to USF, who leads the AAC at 11-3 and they will likely be the top seed. Either way, the Shockers are in the mix, after beating Temple in their last game, 69-57 on Saturday at home. Kenyon Giles led Wichita State with 27 points, while Emmanuel Okorafor added 13 points and 10 boards.
Giles, a 5-10 UNCG transfer, leads the Shockers with 19.1 points per game with 1.7 steals while shooting 38.4% from three-point range. KenPom has the Shockers ranked 95th overall, 133rd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 65th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Wichita State is strong on the glass, ranking 23rd in the nation in total rebounding percentage.
Hardaway's seat getting warmer?
Penny Hardaway is a legend as a player and as a coach at Memphis. But after winning 29 games last season, his Tigers are 12-15. Now considering his outstanding record of 174-79 and a 92-43 record in conference play, Hardaway should be safe for at least one more season, but you never know in this results-oriented business.
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To make matters worse, the Tigers have lost four straight games, including a 78-67 defeat to UAB as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. Memphis shot just 4 of 18 (22%) from beyond the arc and turned the ball over 15 times. Dug McDaniel led the Tigers with 19 points on 8-of-13 shooting.
On the injury front, Aaron Bradshaw (9.1 ppg) missed the UAB game and is questionable with an elbow injury. McDaniel leads the Tigers with 12.8 points and 4.6 assists, while shooting 39.5% from the field and just 31.9% from 3-point range. Three-point shooting has been a major issue for Memphis, which shoots just 31.8% to rank 302nd in the nation. On KenPom, they rank 114th overall, 225th in Adjsuted Offensive Efficiency and 45th in Adjusted Defense. On the boards, Memphis ranks 174th overall in total rebounding percentage.
Spread Pick and Prediction for Wichita State vs. Memphis
Wichita State vs. Memphis Prediction and Odds
- Wichita State +1.5 (4 units)
The Shockers are playing much better basketball right now, looking to move up to second place by themselves. The Tigers are playing for pride and attempting to end the season at .500. Memphis has to win with defense because they don't shoot the ball from three-point range or any range (43.1%). The Shockers are nearly as good on the defensive side of the ball, holding teams to just 42.4% shooting (83rd), but the real difference here is rebounding. Wichita State is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, while the Tigers are ordinary at best. The Shockers rank 9th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage and that will be the difference.
Over/Under Pick for Wichita State vs. Memphis
- Under 144.5 (4 units)
Memphis wants to push the ball, ranking 59th in Adjusted Tempo. But the Shockers are more of a methodical team, ranking 251st. They've gone under in six of their last nine games. These teams have played unders in four of the last six, including the first meeting on Jan. 24. Memphis is also very strong defensively at home, holding opponets to just 67.7 points and 38.5% shooting.
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