Xavier Musketeers vs Seton Hall Pirates Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Wednesday January 28, 2026
Use Code WWWC Big East play continues Wednesday night as the Xavier Musketeers (11-9, 3-6 BE) head to Newark to take on the Seton Hall Pirates (14-6, 4-5 BE) in a matchup that has been one-sided in recent seasons. Xavier swept both head-to-head meetings last year and is 5–1 straight up in the last six meetings overall, though the spread tells a tighter story at an even 3–3 ATS.
The Musketeers enter off back-to-back losses to Creighton (94–93) and St. John’s (88–83), yet they've covered in five straight games, all as underdogs. As for Seton Hall, they have lost four straight games after getting off to a 14-2 start.
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Xavier backers have been cashing tickets
Xavier sits at both 11–9 overall and ATS, but the advanced numbers paint a more favorable picture than the record suggests. Offensively, the Musketeers rank 114.5 in adjusted efficiency (No. 89 nationally) and are one of the better perimeter shooting teams in the conference, knocking down 36.7% from three-point range (No. 45 nationally). Ball security is a major strength, as Xavier owns a 13.4% turnover rate (No. 10 nationally), a key edge against a Seton Hall defense that thrives on creating chaos.
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The Musketeers’ offense is led by Tre Carroll (18.0 ppg, 5.6 rpg), a versatile forward shooting 50.7% from the field while also providing rim protection (1.3 blocks per game). Filip Borovicanin has been a key player as well with 10.1 ppg, and team-best 8.1 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. On the perimeter, Jovan Milicevic stretches defenses with 42.6% three-point shooting, while Malik Messina-Moore adds steady playmaking at 4.1 assists per game.
Defensively, Xavier can be vulnerable inside (opponents shooting 53.7% on two-pointers, No. 256 nationally), but they offset that with activity on the ball and disciplined rotations. The Musketeers are also battle-tested, ranking No. 38 nationally in strength of schedule, and they’ve consistently played to the level of competition.
Seton Hall has been sliding
Seton Hall enters at 14–6 overall and 12–8 ATS, but recent form raises serious concerns. The Pirates have dropped four straight games and, more importantly, have failed to score more than 66 points in any of those contests. Offensively, Seton Hall ranks just 109.7 in adjusted efficiency (No. 162 nationally) and struggles badly shooting the ball, posting a 47.2% effective field-goal rate (No. 321) and 30.9% from three-point range (No. 311).
The offense is led by AJ Staton-McCray (11.8 ppg), though efficiency has been inconsistent. Tajuan Simpkins provides a perimeter shooting threat at 40.0% from three, while Adam Clark serves as the primary distributor with 4.6 assists and 2.1 steals per game, though his 23.8% three-point shooting limits spacing. Inside, Stephon Payne (7.5 rpg) and Najai Hines (2.3 bpg) anchor the paint, with Hines helping fuel a defense that ranks No. 10 nationally in defensive efficiency (94.6).
Defensively, Seton Hall is elite at forcing turnovers (21.7% turnover rate forced, No. 10) and protecting the rim (18.4% block rate, No. 1 nationally). The issue is what happens after the stop. The Pirates play at a slow tempo (65.6 possessions per game, No. 269), and when the offense stalls, they lack the shooting to erase deficits quickly.
Xavier Musketeers vs Seton Hall Pirates Picks
Xavier vs Seton Hall ATS Pick:
- Xavier +7 (5 units)
Xavier is the stronger side based on current form, matchup history, and offense. The Musketeers have covered five straight games, all as underdogs, and consistently keep games close against quality opponents. Their offense is reliable, with solid efficiency and strong three-point shooting, which matters against a Seton Hall team that’s struggling to score.
Seton Hall plays good defense, but laying seven points is risky when they’ve scored 66 points or fewer in four straight games. Xavier won both meetings last season and is 5–1 straight up in the last six matchups. Even if Seton Hall wins at home, Xavier’s shooting and ball control should keep this within the number.
Xavier vs Seton Hall Total Pick:
- Under 144 (5 units)
The Under 144 fits this matchup perfectly. Seton Hall plays at a slow pace (No. 269 nationally) and relies heavily on defense to control games, while its offense continues to struggle from the perimeter (30.9% from three, No. 311). Xavier is more efficient offensively, but the Musketeers are comfortable operating in the half court and won’t push the tempo unnecessarily in this road matchup.
Seton Hall’s elite rim protection and turnover pressure should limit easy scoring chances, while Xavier’s defensive discipline forces opponents to execute in long possessions. With the Pirates failing to reach 67 points in four straight games and both teams ranking outside the top tier in tempo, this profiles as a physical, possession-by-possession Big East game. The Under is the clear play.
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