Youngstown State Penguins vs Cleveland State Vikings Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Saturday January 17 2026
The Youngstown State Penguins (9-10, 2-6 HL) travel to Cleveland to face the Cleveland State Vikings (5-14, 1-7 HL) in a Horizon League matchup on Saturday afternoon. Youngstown State enters the game ranked 206th on KenPom, while Cleveland State sits near the bottom nationally at 336th overall.
Last season these teams played three times, with the Penguins taking two of those games both outright, and against the spread.
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Youngstown State struggling
Youngstown State comes into this matchup on a five game losing streak in conference play and have not beaten a Division I team since Dec. 20. Although the record is poor, the Penguins have been far more competitive than their record suggests. They’ve played a challenging schedule and have consistently shown the ability to score efficiently, especially from the perimeter.
The Penguins rank 213th in adjusted offensive efficiency and shoot 53.1% effective field goal percentage, which is well above the national average. Youngstown State relies heavily on the three-point shot, ranking 17th nationally in 3PA/FGA, with 40% of their scoring coming from beyond the arc. Defensively, they are more disciplined than Cleveland State, ranking 189th in adjusted defensive efficiency and forcing turnovers at a respectable rate.
Cris Carroll leads the way with 16.4 points per game, shooting an impressive 43.2% from three. Bryson Dawkins adds 11.4 ppg, while Rich Rolf contributes 9.8 points and 4.7 rebounds per game. The Penguins also have solid rim protection from Imanuel Zorgvol, who averages 1.8 blocks per game.
Down season for Cleveland State
Cleveland State has endured a difficult season and enters this matchup at 5-14 overall and 1-7 in conference play. The Vikings have lost seven of their last eight games and are ranked 336th on KenPom, largely due to severe defensive issues.
The Vikings rank 363rd in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing opponents to score efficiently at all three levels. They struggle mightily to defend the paint, ranking 352nd in opponent two-point percentage, and they are one of the worst teams in the country at preventing offensive rebounds. While Cleveland State can occasionally score, their 221st-ranked offense hasn’t been enough to compensate for defensive breakdowns.
Dayan Nessah leads Cleveland State with 13.9 points and 5.9 rebounds per game, while Tre Beard adds 13.4 ppg and shoots 43.4% from three. Despite some capable scorers, the Vikings lack depth, experience, and defensive consistency. 
Youngstown State vs Cleveland State Predictions
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ben Burns | +1,203.00 |
| 2 |  Joseph D'Amico | +791.00 |
| 3 |  Bryan Power | +507.00 |
| 4 |  MIT Simulator | +449.00 |
| 5 |  Joe Duffy | +374.00 |
Youngstown State vs Cleveland State ATS Pick:
- Youngstown State to cover (5 units)
This is a major mismatch defensively. Youngstown State owns a clear efficiency edge on both ends of the floor and is far more reliable offensively. The Penguins’ perimeter-heavy attack matches up perfectly against a Cleveland State defense that ranks near the bottom nationally in effective field goal percentage allowed.
Although both teams have struggled against Horizon League opponents, Cleveland State's inability to defend the paint or the perimeter puts them at a significant disadvantage here.
Take Youngstown State.
Youngstown State vs Cleveland State Total Pick:
- Over (4 units)
The over is in play due to Cleveland State’s defensive inefficiency and Youngstown State’s offensive profile. The Vikings allow high-percentage looks inside and struggle to close out on shooters, which plays directly into the Penguins’ strengths. Cleveland State also draws fouls at an above-average rate, which can help keep scoring steady even if shots aren’t falling consistently.
With Cleveland State’s defense ranking near the bottom nationally and Youngstown State capable of scoring in multiple ways, this matchup profiles as a higher-scoring Horizon League game that favors the over.
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