Youngstown State vs. Northern Kentucky Pick and Prediction for Sunday, January 4, 2026
Use Code WWWC The Youngstown State Penguins (8-7, 2-3 Horizon) head to Truist Arena to face the Northern Kentucky Norse (11-5, 3-2 Horizon) in a crucial conference clash. The Penguins are looking to snap a two-game skid, while the Norse are riding a wave of momentum after consecutive conference victories.
Northern Kentucky has been formidable at home this season (8-2), making this a steep uphill battle for a Youngstown State squad that has struggled to find consistency on the road. For expert analysis and daily wagering insights on the full slate of college basketball action, be sure to check out the latest free NCAAB picks over at Winners and Whiners.
NKU's High-Octane Offense
The Norse have established themselves as one of the most explosive offensive units in the Horizon League, averaging 83.8 points per game. They are led by junior guard Dan Gherezgher Jr., who is scoring 16.5 PPG on efficient shooting. Complementing him is Kael Robinson, who has been on a tear lately, averaging 16.1 points over his last 10 games.
NKU’s defensive philosophy centers on creating chaos; they rank near the top of the conference in steals (10.1 SPG). If the Norse can force Youngstown State into live-ball turnovers, their transition offense—which thrives at home—could quickly turn this into a double-digit lead.
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Youngstown State: Sharpshooting and Grit
The Penguins enter this matchup following a heartbreaking 85-83 loss to Oakland, a game where Bryson Dawkins exploded for 20 points. Their offensive engine is Cris Carroll, who leads the team with 16.8 PPG. Carroll is a lethal threat from deep, averaging 3.0 made three-pointers per game while shooting an impressive 45.9% from beyond the arc.
Youngstown State's path to victory relies on their ability to slow the tempo and win the rebounding battle. They currently average 34.1 rebounds per game, and center Imanuel Zorgvol (who is listed as out with a leg injury) will be a significant loss for their interior defense. Without him, the Penguins will need Carroll and Dawkins to play nearly perfect perimeter defense to keep the Norse from dominating the paint.
Analysis & Betting Picks
Northern Kentucky vs Younstown State Pick
- Moneyline: Northern Kentucky Norse
The Norse have a clear situational advantage. They are playing at home, where they have won 80% of their games this season, and they possess the defensive speed to harass Youngstown State’s shooters. With the Penguins missing their primary rim protector in Zorgvol, Northern Kentucky should be able to exploit the interior and secure the win.
Northern Kentucky vs Youngstown State Total Pick
- Total: Over 154.5
Both teams have shown a tendency to play in high-scoring affairs lately. NKU’s last five games have averaged over 156 total points, and Youngstown State just gave up 85 to Oakland. Given the offensive talent on both sides—specifically Carroll’s three-point shooting and Gherezgher’s ability to get to the rim—this game is likely to clear the 155-point mark.
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