Air Force Falcons vs. Navy Midshipmen Picks and Prediction, Saturday, October 4th, 2025
Use Code WWWC In this Air Force at Navy prediction, the two service academies will square off at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium on Saturday afternoon. Air Force will be looking for its first win of the season, starting out at 0-3. The Midshipmen are undefeated at 4-0 thus far. The opening kick is scheduled for 12:00 pm EST. Don’t get sacked this football season! Try our College Football Picks!
Air Force grounded
The Air Force Falcons are off to a rough start in 2025, sitting at 1-3 after three straight losses in conference play. That includes a 44-35 loss to Hawaii at Falcon Stadium in Colorado last Saturday afternoon. The Falcons trailed 24-14 entering the fourth quarter when both teams combined to score 41 points.
The Falcons were led by quarterback Liam Szarka, making his first career start for Air Force. He finished the game 10-of-12 for 278 yards passing. He also led the ground game with 139 yards rushing on 17 carries. Wide receivers Cade Harris and Quin Smith had big days as well, each with over 100 yards receiving. Harris and Smith both hauled in touchdown passes. The Falcons finished with 494 yards of total offense, including 417 yards from Szarka alone, a new Air Force record for a single game.
Air Force’s defense allowed 535 yards of total offense in the game, including a whopping 457 through the air. Blake Fletcher led the team with 11 tackles, including one tackle for loss. Nick Beckwith added seven tackles for the Falcons. Ultimately, the defense couldn’t get off the field. They allowed Hawaii to convert on 14 of 19 third-down conversions. The Rainbow Warriors dominated time of possession, holding the ball for nearly 15 minutes longer than Air Force.
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The Falcons come into this contest ranked 27th in the country in scoring offense. They are 30th in the nation in rushing and 62nd in passing. Air Force is 34th in red zone offense. They are 48th in sacks allowed per game. Defensively, Air Force ranks just 134th in the nation in points allowed per game. They are 126th against the run and 134th against the pass. Air Force has the 108th-ranked red zone defense. The team is 35th in penalties per game and just 120th in turnover margin.
Key Injuries: QB Josh Johnson and WR Jonah Dawson are questionable.
Smooth sailing for Navy
The Navy Midshipmen are off and running this season with a perfect 4-0 mark following a 21-13 win over Rice at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis. With the win, this marks the first time that Navy has started consecutive seasons at 4-0 since 1978-79. They’ll renew their rivalry with Air Force this weekend, looking to stay perfect.
"I thought we did some really good things defensively," said head coach Brian Newberry. "I am really proud, especially the first half. I thought we had them dialed in. They moved the ball a bit in the second half, but when you hold an option team to 120 yards rushing, it is a really good day for you. On the flip side, we had 450 yards of offense and just 21 points to show for it. I thought we shot ourselves in the foot a bunch. We had 10 penalties, and seven were on offense. We were able to overcome a couple of those, but that's not good enough; that's not who we are. We have to get that fixed and figured out. If we don't get in our own way, we are pretty good."
Senior quarterback Blake Horvath continued his stellar season, rushing for 110 yards and two touchdowns in the win. Senior fullback Alex Tecza did his part as well, rumbling for 105 yards on just 11 carries. Navy finished the game with 455 yards of total offense, including 283 yards on the ground. This marked the fourth straight game that the Midshipmen tallied more than 450 yards of total offense. The last time the team accomplished that feat was back in 2015.
Navy’s defense held Rice to just 234 yards of total offense, including 114 yards through the air. Sophomore linebacker MarcAnthony Parker had another huge afternoon, finishing with a career-high 13 tackles. Safety Seth English had a career-high six tackles, and linebacker Luke Pirris contributed five tackles and a sack.
Navy is now 32nd in the country in points per game this season. The team is 10th in rushing and 124th in passing. Navy ranks 34th in the nation in red zone offense, and the team is 3rd in sacks allowed. Navy’s defense has been stout thus far. The team ranks 30th in points allowed per game. The Middies are 34th against the run and 51st against the pass. They are 53rd in the country in red zone defense. Navy is just 101st in the nation in penalties per game and ranks 46th in turnover margin.
Key Injuries: TE Cody Howard, WR Casey Smith, and SB Victor Listori are questionable. SB Tyler Bradley is out.
Air Force vs. Navy Pick
Point Spread pick for Air Force at Navy
- Navy -12.5 (4 units)
Air Force is coming off a game in which they were dominated in terms of time of possession by Hawaii. With Navy’s ability to run the football, that margin will likely grow even higher on Saturday. The Middies are 10th in the country in rushing the football, while Air Force has one of the worst run defenses in the nation, ranked 126th. Air Force is also just 108th in red zone defense. That should result in Navy converting red zone chances into touchdowns. The Navy defense has also been strong this season. Air Force has a solid offense, but the Middies can contain them. Navy is ranked 30th in scoring defense and 34th against the run. Despite this being a rivalry game, it should be fairly one-sided in Navy’s direction.
Take Navy -12.5
Over/Under Pick for Air Force vs. Navy
- Under 52.5 (paragraph, bold)
Both teams have dynamic offenses, but both also prefer to run the football. While Navy should have its way with the Falcons on the ground, don’t expect Air Force to have the same type of success against Navy. Additionally, running the ball will keep the clock moving on Saturday, limiting scoring chances and shortening the game. Expect this game to stay under the number.
Take the under.
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