Air Force Falcons vs. San Jose State Spartans Picks and Prediction for Saturday, November 8, 2025
Use Code WWWC Week 11 of the college football season rolls on with a battle of squads looking for momentum as a pair of Mountain West teams battle as the Air Force Falcons travel to take on the San Jose State Spartans Saturday evening and we have you covered with our Air Force vs. UNLV prediction. Air Force fell 20-17 at home to Army last Saturday in their previous contest, failing to cover the line as a one-point underdog. San Jose State earned a 45-38 win at home over Hawaii last Saturday, covering the line as a 2.5-point favorite. In the all-time series between the teams as FBS opponents, the Falcons own a 5-3 advantage, but the Spartans picked up a 17-7 road win in the most recent matchup on September 7, 2024. Read more about this Air Force vs. San Jose State prediction! Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!
Air Force Seeking to Pick Up Road Victory
Air Force lost for the sixth time in seven games and their third straight defeat by three points as they were dropped by Army in their previous contest. The Falcons fell to 2-6 overall on the year and stand 1-4 in Mountain West play on the season. Against Army, Air Force trailed 7-3 after the opening quarter and 10-3 at the half before tying the game on the final play of the third quarter. The Falcons tied the game again at 17 with 1:26 to play before allowing Army to drive 63 yards in eight plays, capped by a game-winning 27-yard field goal as time expired, to wind up with the loss. Air Force owned a 335-295 edge in total offense, picked up 23 first downs while allowing 15 and controlled the clock by a 34:04 to 25:56 margin. The Falcons were hurt in the turnover department as they committed three giveaways while failing to record a takeaway in the game.
The Falcons enter this contest 109th in the nation in passing offense with an average of 185 yards per contest, which is surprising given that they are a service academy. Air Force currently stands 2nd in the nation in rushing offense as they put up an average of 270 yards per game on the ground. The Falcons are 35th of the 136 FBS teams to take the field this season in scoring offense, as they average 33.9 points per game. Air Force is 128th in scoring defense as they allow an average of 35.1 points a contest. Liam Szarka is 68 of 107 for 1,219 yards with eight touchdowns and five picks while adding a team-high 816 yards plus 11 scores on the ground. Josh Johnson has completed nine of 18 passes for 224 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while adding 36 yards on the ground. Owen Allen (60 carries, 404 yards, three TD), Cade Harris (51 carries, 292 yards, four TD) and Dylan Carson (56 carries, 292 yards, two TD) are all solid contributors in the run game. Harris leads the team with 29 catches for 536 yards and two scores. Quin Smith (11 receptions, 291 yards, three TD), Tre Roberson (five grabs, 109 yards), Jonah Dawson (nine catches, 217 yards, TD) and Bruin Fleischmann (16 catches, 270 yards, four TD) are the only other players with more than 53 receiving yards on the year. Jacob Medina is 26 of 26 on extra point attempts and three of six on field goal attempts with a long of 31 this season. Reagan Tubbs is four of four on extra point attempts and four of five on field goal attempts with a long with a long of 52 this season.
Roberson is done for the season.
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Spartans Trying to Build Momentum
San Jose State snapped a two-game slide as they outgunned Hawaii in their previous contest last week at home. The Spartans improved to 3-5 overall and stand 2-2 in Mountain West action on the season. Against Hawaii, San Jose State broke a 7-7 tie after the opening quarter by outscoring the Rainbow Warriors 24-7 in the second quarter to lead 31-14 at the half. The Spartans withstood a second half rally as Hawaii got within 38-35 in the fourth quarter to earn the victory. San Jose State owned a 630-496 advantage in total offense, picked up 26 first downs while allowing 22 and forced the game’s lone turnover in the win. Those numbers made up for losing the time of possession by a 33:10 to 26:50 margin.
On the season, the Spartans are 1st in the nation in passing offense with 331.5 yards per game and 112th in rushing offense with an average of 121.9 yards per contest. San Jose State is 77th in the FBS in scoring offense with an average of 26.8 points per game, while they are 110th in scoring defense by allowing an average of 30.4 points per contest. Walker Eget (190 of 320, 2607 yards, 17 TD, three INT) has been solid under center. Tama Amisone (five of nine, 30 yards, 53 rush yards) and Xavier Ward (three of 10, 15 yards, INT, four rush yards) are next in line on the depth chart. Jabari Bates is third on the team in the ground game with 27 carries for 192 yards and two scores on the year. Floyd Chalk IV (35 carries, 141 yards, two TD), Steve Chavez-Soto (47 carries, 251 yards, six TD) and Lamar Radcliffe (57 carries, 295 yards, TD) are next in line for the ground attack. Danny Scudero has reeled in 63 passes for 1,085 yards and 10 scores on the season. Kyri Shoels (46 receptions, 587 yards, two TD), Leland Smith (28 catches, 499 yards, three TD) and tight end Jackson Canaan (23 grabs, 225 yards) are each over 200 receiving yards on the season. Denis Lynch is 15 of 15 on extra point attempts and six of 12 on field goal attempts with a long of 48 this season. Mathias Brown is 10 of 11 on extra point attempts and one of three on field goal attempts with a long of 24 on the year.
Wide receiver Malachi Riley (undisclosed) is done for the year. Running back could be a position of concern for the Spartans here. Bates (undisclosed) and Chalk IV (redshirt) are both done for the year.
Air Force vs. San Jose State Prediction
Spread Pick for Air Force vs. San Jose State
- San Jose State -5.5 (4 units)
Air Force has struggled to close games this season, having had each of their last three losses by three points. The Falcons simply haven’t been able to stop anyone from moving the ball with regularity and putting points on the board. That’s a problem against a San Jose State team that is capable of putting up big point totals. San Jose State has won three of their four home games this season, winning each of their last three games as the hosts. Meanwhile, Air Force has lost all three of their road games this season, and with their inability to make stops defensively, you have to back the Spartans as Eget has another big game.
Over/Under Pick for Air Force vs. San Jose State
- Over 64.5 (4 units)
Air Force has seen the over hit in six of their eight games this season. The Falcons have given up at least 34 points five times this season, including four games where they allowed at least 44 points. Air Force gives up an average of 281.5 yards per game through the air and has allowed 15 scores through the air. San Jose State has seen the over hit in five of their eight games on the year. The Spartans have gone over the number in five of their last six games, putting up at least 25 points in each of those contests. Eget leads the nation in passing yards and should take advantage of the Falcons’ defensive issues to help push this one over the total in what should be a shootout with two lousy defenses.
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