Air Force Falcons vs. UNLV Rebels Picks and Prediction for Saturday, October 11, 2025
Use Code WWWC Week 7 of the college football season rolls on with a battle of squads looking for momentum as a pair of Mountain West teams battle as the Air Force Falcons travel to take on the UNLV Rebels Saturday afternoon and we have you covered with our Air Force vs. UNLV prediction. Air Force fell 34-31 on the road to Navy last Saturday in their previous contest, covering the line as a 13.5-point underdog. UNLV earned a 31-17 win on the road over Wyoming last Saturday, covering the line as a 3.5-point favorite. In the all-time series between the teams as FBS opponents, the Falcons own an 18-7 advantage, but the Rebels picked up a 31-27 win in the most recent matchup on November 18, 2023. Read more about this Air Force vs. UNLV prediction! Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!
Air Force Hoping to Soar to Road Conference Win
Air Force suffered a fourth straight loss as they ended up falling short by a field goal on the road to Navy in their previous contest. The Falcons fell to 1-4 overall on the season and stand 0-3 in Mountain West action on the year. Against Navy, Air Force traded the lead several times, with neither side leading by seven points in the game. The Falcons gave up the eventual winning field goal with 6:47 remaining in the game and couldn’t pull the game out. Air Force was outgained 519-460 despite holding a 23-19 advantage in first downs and owning a 32:28 to 27:32 margin in time of possession in the game. Both teams turned the ball over once.
The Falcons enter this contest 77th in the nation in passing offense with an average of 222.2 yards per contest, which is surprising given that they are a service academy. Air Force currently stands 8th in the nation in rushing offense as they put up an average of 245.6 yards per game on the ground. The Falcons are 30th of the 136 FBS teams to take the field this season in scoring offense, as they average 36.4 points per game. Air Force is 132nd in scoring defense as they allow an average of 37.8 points a contest. Liam Szarka is 42 of 65 for 850 yards with seven touchdowns and three picks while adding a team-high 448 yards plus six scores on the ground. Josh Johnson is the starter under center and has completed nine of 16 passes for 224 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while adding 30 yards on the ground. Cade Harris is the third-leading ground gainer with 27 carries for 190 yards and two scores while Dylan Carson chips in 48 carries for 248 yards and two scores. Harris leads the team with 19 catches for 446 yards and two scores. Quin Smith (10 receptions, 275 yards, three TD), Tre Roberson (five grabs, 109 yards) and Bruin Fleischmann (12 catches, 209 yards, three TD) are the only other players with more than 53 receiving yards on the year. Jacob Medina is 20 of 20 on extra point attempts and three of five on field goal attempts with a long of 31 this season. Reagan Tubbs hit his lone extra point attempt and has not attempted a field goal this season.
Johnson, who was the starting quarterback in week 1, and Roberson are dealing with undisclosed injuries. They are questionable here.
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Rebels Hoping to Remain Unbeaten Under Mullen
UNLV maintained its perfect record as it took down Wyoming on the road in their previous contest to remain unbeaten under coach Dan Mullen. The Rebels improved to 5-0 overall and stand 1-0 in the Mountain West on the season entering this game. Against Wyoming, UNLV gave up a field goal just over two minutes into the game before reeling off 24 unanswered points to take a 24-3 edge at the half. The Rebels weren’t seriously threatened the rest of the way as they went on to win. UNLV was outgained 356-256 in total offense and gave up 21 first downs while picking up 15, while holding a 30:22 to 29:38 edge in time of possession in the game. The Rebels forced three turnovers while committing just one and had two blocked punt returns for scores in the game.
The Rebels enter this week 81st in the nation in passing offense with 215.8 yards per game through the air and stand 36th in rushing offense by grinding out 195.6 yards per contest on the ground. UNLV is 38th in the FBS in scoring offense by averaging 35.6 points per game and 86th in scoring defense as they allow 23.6 points a contest. Anthony Colandrea is 89 of 128 passing for 1,042 yards with nine touchdowns and three interceptions while ranking second on the team in rushing with 57 carries for 261 yards and a score. Alex Orji is three of three passing for 37 yards while adding 42 yards and a score on the ground. Ja’Den Thomas leads the team on the ground with 61 carries for 489 yards and five scores. Keyvone Lee (29 carries, 130 yards, three TD) and Jaylon Glover (22 carries, 60 yards) are next in line. Jaden Bradley leads the team with 25 receptions for 420 yards and two touchdowns on the year. Troy Omeire (12 receptions, 130 yards, TD), Daejon Reynolds (seven grabs, 98 yards, TD), JoJo Earle (eight catches, 91 yards) and Var’Keyes Gumms (seven catches, 95 yards, TD) are other options in the passing game. Ramon Villela is 22 of 22 on extra point attempts and six of eight on field goal attempts with a long of 50 on the year.
Orji (hamstring/knee) is done for the season. Running back Darrien Jones and wide receiver Cassidee Mills are both questionable with undisclosed injuries.
Air Force vs. UNLV Pick
Spread Pick for Air Force vs. UNLV
- UNLV -6.5 (4 units)
The Falcons have been more explosive offensively than they have been in recent years and their newfound passing game is a wrinkle that is uncommon for service academies. Air Force is going to take their lumps defensively as they are fifth-worst in the nation in scoring defense and they surrender an average of 312.4 yards per game and 11 scores through the air. UNLV, despite its issues giving up plenty of yards, has forced 13 turnovers, giving them a +8 in the takeaway/giveaway department on the year. Playing at home, with an explosive offense along with opportunistic defense and special teams, look for UNLV to remain unbeaten on the year and cover the line here.
Over/Under Pick for Air Force vs. UNLV
- Over 63.5 (4 units)
Air Force has gone over the total in all five of their games this season. The Falcons have put up at least 30 points in each of their games this year. On the flip side, the Falcons have surrendered at least 34 points in each of their last four games and more than 40 in three of those contests. UNLV has stayed under the total in three of their five games on this year. The Rebels put up at least 30 points in each game this season and facing a leaky Falcons defense should work for plenty of points. Air Force should put up a bunch of points themselves, helping this game wind up over the number.
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