Alabama vs. Auburn Picks and Prediction for Saturday, November 29, 2025
On Saturday, No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide and Auburn Tigers will battle in the 90th Iron Bowl at Jordan-Hare Stadium. The SEC rivalry game kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET.
The Crimson Tide is a 5.5-point spread favorite, and the total is 46.5 points scored.
This Alabama vs. Auburn prediction highlights a Tide team tied for third in the SEC football standings and a Tigers squad seeking a sixth win for bowl eligibility. Bama has won five straight Iron Bowls and leads the series 51–37–1.
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Bama has an elite passing attack
Alabama (9-2 SU, 7-3-1 ATS, and 4-7 O/U) handled its business against FCS Eastern Illinois last game, covering the spread as 49-point favorites.
The Crimson Tide led from start to finish, scoring two touchdowns in each quarter. They outgained the Panthers 539-34, as the visitors eked out only two first downs. Bama passed for 270 yards and rushed for 269, controlling the football for 16 more minutes than Eastern Illinois.
Junior QB Ty Simpson paces the Crimson Tide with 2,934 passing yards, a 66.9% completion percentage, and a 22:4 TD:INT ratio. He has also rushed for two scores. The Tennessee native's top receiving targets are senior WR Germie Bernard (48 receptions for 676 yards and six TDs) and sophomore WR Ryan Williams (40 receptions for 598 yards and four TDs). Senior RB Jam Miller (108 carries for 410 yards and three TDs in eight games) leads the Alabama run game.
Bama scores 37.2 points per game (20th) and averages 457.3 total yards (32nd), including 321.7 passing yards (9th) and 135.6 rushing yards (103rd). The Crimson Tide defense allows 17.8 points (11th) and 297.5 total yards (10th) per game, including 163.5 passing yards (6th) and 134.0 rushing yards (36th).
Alabama Crimson Tide Football Injury Report:
- Kameron Howard, DB — Out
- Jah-Marien Latham, LB — Out
- Dre Kirkpatrick Jr., DB — Out
- Kevin Riley, RB — Out
- Abduall Sanders Jr., LB — Out
- Josh Cuevas, TE — Out
- Danny Lewis Jr., TE — Out
- Jeremiah Beaman, DL — Out
- Germie Bernard, WR — Probable
- QB Reese, LB — Probable
- Parker Brailsford, OL — Probable
Auburn is top ten against the run
Auburn (5-6 SU, 4-6-1 ATS, and 4-7 O/U) defeated Mercer 63-17 last weekend, covering the spread as 27.5-point favorites.
The Tigers got back in the win column after losing six of their previous seven, outgaining the Bears 547-338 in total yards. The game was tied 14-14 after the first quarter, but Auburn didn't pump the brakes, piling on the points. True freshman QB Deuce Knight accounted for six total touchdowns (two passing and four rushing) in his first significant game action.
Senior QB Ashton Daniels will start for Auburn in the Iron Bowl. He has completed 62.5 percent of his passes for 538 yards with two touchdowns and a pick. His top receiving targets are sophomore WR Cam Coleman (52 receptions for 682 yards and five TDs) and junior WR Eric Singleton Jr. (55 receptions for 508 yards and three TDs). The Tigers' run game is paced by junior RB Jeremiah Cobb (165 carries for 936 yards and four TDs).
Auburn scores 27.4 points per game (83rd) and averages 370.5 total yards (99th), including 191.5 passing yards (115th) and 179.1 rushing yards (56th). The Tigers' defense allows 20.1 points (20th) and 333.6 total yards (29th) per game, including 239.6 passing yards (76th) and 94.0 rushing yards (7th).
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Auburn Tigers Football Injury Report:
- Champ Anthony, Horatio Fields, Demarcus Riddick, Sam Turner, and Connor Lew are ruled out for Saturday's game. Sylvester Smith will miss the first half (targeting).
- Keldric Faulk is expected to play.
Alabama vs. Auburn Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for Alabama vs. Auburn
- Crimson Tide -5.5 (4 Units)
Simpson is accurate and effective, as the Bama passing game ranks in the top 10 nationally in Passing Success Rate. Expect to hear the names Bernard and Williams mentioned often on Saturday. Cuevas has also become a focal piece of the passing offense (seven targets vs. Oklahoma). Auburn is tough to run against, but the Tigers have struggled to prevent passing explosives. Broken and missed tackles have been especially problematic.
While I doubt either run game is effective, the Tigers lack a passing game capable of keeping up with the Tide's, especially if they don't let Knight do his thing. I lean towards Bama's side against the spread.
Over/Under Pick for Alabama vs. Auburn
- Over 46.5 (5 Units)
I like the potential of a wager on the over, especially at 46.5. The Crimson Tide has struggled against mobile QBs this season, and if the Tigers let Knight loose, even for just a few plays here and there, there will be big plays. Alabama ranks 127th in opponent rush explosives, as dual-threats LaNorris Sellers, Beau Pribula, and Tommy Castellanos all had success against them. With Simpson airing it out against a porous Tigers secondary, both offenses will get into scoring position often enough to push the total over.
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