Alabama vs. Oklahoma Picks and Prediction, Friday, December 19, 2025
Use Code WWWC On Friday, the Alabama Crimson Tide and Oklahoma Sooners will play in the first round of the College Football Playoff at Memorial Stadium. Kickoff from Norman, OK, is at 8:00 p.m. ET.
The Sooners are one-point spread favorites, and the game total is 40 points scored.
This Alabama vs. Oklahoma prediction highlights a Crimson Tide team that was 10-3 overall and 7-1 in SEC play and a Sooners squad that went 10-2 this season, including 6-2 in SEC competition. OU beat Bama 23-21 on November 15 in Tuscaloosa, winning despite being outgained 406-212, as the Sooners forced three turnovers. Oklahoma leads the all-time series 5-2-1.
Do you need a boost in your handicapping? Try our NCAAF Predictions.
Get Free $30 Credit for Premium Picks + Exclusive Discounts
Subscribe Now
Crimson Tide out to prove they belong in the CFP
Alabama (10-3 SU, 7-4-2 ATS, and 4-9 O/U) won its final two regular-season games before falling to Georgia in the SEC title game. The Crimson Tide has covered the spread just three times in its last eight games.
'Bama was held scoreless until the fourth quarter of the conference championship, as it struggled to move the football on the ground against the Dawgs (16 carries for -3 yards). The Tide were a combined 4-for-17 on third and fourth down, allowing UGA to dominate the time of possession by nearly 14 minutes. While they still made the 12-team College Football Playoff, the performance dampened expectations ahead of their rematch with the Sooners.
Junior QB Ty Simpson paces the Crimson Tide with 3,268 passing yards, a 64.3% completion percentage, and a 26:5 TD:INT ratio. The Tennessee native's top receiving targets are senior WR Germie Bernard (57 receptions for 762 yards and seven TDs) and sophomore WR Ryan Williams (42 receptions for 631 yards and four TDs). Senior RB Jam Miller (123 carries for 493 yards and three TDs in nine games) leads the Alabama ground game.
Bama scores 31.2 points per game (41st) and averages 389.4 total yards (71st), including 273.2 passing yards (23rd) and 116.2 rushing yards (118th). The Crimson Tide defense allows 17.4 points (12th) and 283.3 total yards (12th) per game, including 157.7 passing yards (7th) and 125.6 rushing yards (36th).
Alabama Crimson Tide Football Injury Report:
- DB Kameron Howard – Out
- LB Jah-Marien Latham – Out
- DB Dre Kirkpatrick Jr. – Out
- EDGE LT Overton – Out
- RB Kevin Riley – Out
- DL Jeremiah Beaman – Out
- TE Josh Cuevas – Questionable
- TE Danny Lewis Jr. – Questionable
Oklahoma needs another strong showing by its defense
Oklahoma (10-2 SU, 6-5-1 ATS, and 2-10 O/U) finished the regular season strong to make the CFP field, winning four straight and five of its last six, including road wins over ranked Tennessee and Alabama teams. The Sooners also covered the spread in four of those wins.
Oklahoma's performance in its regular-season finale was underwhelming, as it won 17-13 as 12-point favorites. OU scored just three first-half points, but made key winning plays down the stretch, especially on defense. The Tigers were just 2-for-14 on third down and mustered only 198 total yards, averaging 2.9 yards per carry and 4.3 yards per pass. The Sooners passed for over 300 yards, but committed three turnovers and eight penalties that kept LSU in the game.
Junior QB John Mateer leads the OU passing game with 2,578 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions in 11 games. His top receiving targets are junior WR Isaiah Sategna III (65 receptions for 948 yards and seven TDs) and senior TE Jaren Kanak (40 receptions for 511 yards). The Oklahoma run game is a three-headed attack featuring freshman RB Tory Blalock (109 carries for 444 yards and four TDs), sophomore RB Xavier Robinson (80 carries for 417 yards and four TDs), and Mateer (130 carries for 416 yards and seven TDs).
The Sooners score 26.4 points per game (80th) and average 353.7 total yards (93rd), including 229.9 passing yards (66th) and 123.8 rushing yards (108th). The Oklahoma defense surrenders 13.9 points (7th) and 273.6 total yards (8th) per game, including 192.2 passing yards (29th) and 81.4 rushing yards (5th).
Oklahoma Sooners Football Injury Report:
- DB Gentry Williams – Out
- DB Kendel Dolby – Out
- DB Jeremiah Newcombe – Out
- DL Troy Everett – Out
- OL Jake Maikkula – Questionable
- RB Jovantae Barnes – Probable
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Pick and Preview
Moneyline Pick for Alabama vs. Oklahoma
- Crimson Tide -104 (5 Units)
This is an opportunity for Bama to prove it's a better team than the one that was dominated by Georgia, played mediocrely against Auburn, and nearly lost to South Carolina over the last two months. A win in Norman would silence the doubters who believed they were too suspect to deserve a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Even without a reliable run game, the Crimson Tide outgained the Sooners by nearly 200 yards in the first matchup, as OU needed three turnovers to pull out the victory. They aren't likely to dominate the turnover battle twice, though. The Sooners forced just 10 turnovers in their other 11 games this season and don't make many winning plays on the ball, ranking 116th in ball-hawk rate, per Sports Info Solutions. Simpson carved up Oklahoma for 326 passing yards and 7.8 yards per pass attempt, as the OU secondary didn't hold up well enough. Part of the reason for that was a lack of a pass rush, which Oklahoma has struggled to generate since EDGE R Mason Thomas (6.5 sacks) was injured in early November (82nd in opponent-adjusted pressure rate). While Thomas will play on Friday, it's unclear how healthy and explosive he'll be after missing over a month of action. Regardless, I like Alabama's offensive line to withstand the pressure (29th in pressure rate allowed), even if the home team blitzes more this time.
Alabama also has several advantages working in its favor on the other side of the ball. Oklahoma really needs its run game to win, as controlling the time of possession has helped keep its defense fresh enough to win low-scoring games. The Sooners are in for a challenge, though, as the Crimson Tide held the Sooners to 2.6 yards per carry in the first matchup. Alabama also ranks 40th in yards per attempt allowed and 49th in rushing yards of ten-plus yards allowed, while OU hasn't churned out extra yards after contact too often (103rd in yards after contact). Without an effective complementary run game, Mateer will have too much on his shoulders. He doesn't generate many big plays downfield through the air, ranking 116th nationally with a 34% completion percentage on throws of 15-plus yards. The Crimson Tide has also consistently prevented long passing plays outside of the red zone, allowing a 35% completion percentage on throws of 15-plus yards (26th). Even dink-and-dunk throws are ineffective against the Tide (21st in yards per attempt allowed on passes of five or fewer yards).
It won't surprise me if these teams play another competitive game, but I feel confident that fortune will be on Alabama's side this time. I really like the Crimson Tide to win on Friday in Norman.
Over/Under Pick for Alabama vs. Oklahoma
- Under 40 (4 Units)
Betting Trends: The under has cashed in five straight Crimson Tide games and was the winning bet in 8 of their 13 games this season. The under was also 10-2 in Sooners games this season, cashing in three straight.
I'm not counting on either team running the football effectively in this first-round College Football Playoff game. Bama's leading back Miller will play, but he's banged up, and the visitors have struggled in the ground game all year (123rd in runs of ten-plus yards). Oklahoma also allowed the third-fewest runs of ten-plus yards in the country. The Sooners certainly aren't expected to bust many long runs or generate big chunk plays through the air, either, as I already detailed in the spread analysis. While Simpson will be a threat through the air, he doesn't come into this matchup with momentum (481 yards with four touchdowns and three interceptions the past three games). He'll make enough winning plays to move the chains for an Alabama team ranked 17th in average time of possession, but the Alabama run game is too ineffective to predict a high-scoring performance by the visitors.
I prefer a wager on Alabama to cover, but I recommend a bet on the total to be under 40 points.
Betting on College Football?
- Bet with other College Football fans at the best sportsbooks
- Sign up today and get started with the latest college football sportsbook promos
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
