Arizona State Sun Devils vs Iowa State Cyclones Prediction and Picks - November 1, 2025
Use Code WWWC Big 12 College football action on Saturday afternoon, and we have an Arizona State vs Iowa State Prediction ready to rock and roll. Arizona State is off a tough 24-16 home loss to Houston to fall to 5-3 on the year. Iowa State is also at 5-3 on the year after taking a 41-27 home loss to BYU. Arizona State won last year's meeting at home by a score of 45-19. Can Iowa State get revenge for that loss? Read on to see our Arizona State vs Iowa State prediction.
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ASU Falls To Houston At Home
Arizona State heads into Ames at 5-3 overall and 3-2 in the Big 12, but they’ll be without starting quarterback Sam Leavitt, who is sidelined for this matchup. That absence forces the Sun Devils to adjust their offensive identity, leaning more heavily on the ground game and simplifying the passing attack. Raleek Brown, who has already piled up over 700 rushing yards this season, becomes the centerpiece of the offense, and his ability to create explosive plays will be critical. Wideout Malik McClain, fresh off a 159-yard performance against Houston, will also be asked to shoulder more responsibility as the top target in the passing game.
The challenge for Arizona State is finding balance without Leavitt’s dual-threat ability. The backup quarterback will be tasked with managing the game, avoiding turnovers, and keeping the offense on schedule. That means the offensive line has to step up, both in opening lanes for Brown and in giving the passing game enough time to develop. Tight end Chamon Metayer could play a bigger role as a safety valve, especially on third downs and in the red zone, where the Sun Devils have struggled to finish drives. If they can establish the run early and keep Iowa State’s defense honest, Arizona State has the pieces to stay competitive.
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Defensively, the Sun Devils have been steady, allowing just 334 yards per game, and that unit will need to carry more of the load with the offense shorthanded. The front seven has been stout against the run, holding opponents under 120 yards per contest, and linebackers Keyshaun Elliott and Jordan Crook have been consistent playmakers. The secondary has been more vulnerable, giving up chunk plays through the air, but safety Myles Rowser has provided stability on the back end. Against an Iowa State offense that has been turnover-prone, Arizona State’s defense has an opportunity to flip momentum with takeaways. With Leavitt out, the Sun Devils’ path to victory depends on controlling the trenches, limiting mistakes, and letting their defense set the tone.
Iowa State Falls Big To BYU
Iowa State also sits at 5-3 overall, but the Cyclones are trending in the wrong direction after a 41-27 home loss to BYU that marked their third straight defeat. It was a game that started with promise — Rocco Becht hit Brett Eskildsen for a 75-yard touchdown on the opening play, and running back Carson Hansen added two first-half scores to give ISU a 24-10 lead. But the second half unraveled quickly, with turnovers and defensive breakdowns allowing BYU to storm back. Becht finished with 311 passing yards and a touchdown, but he also threw three costly interceptions, including a pick-six that sealed the game. It was another reminder of how thin the margin is for this team when mistakes pile up.
Offensively, the Cyclones have been balanced, averaging 417 yards per game with a steady mix of run and pass. Hansen and Abu Sama III have combined for over 1,000 rushing yards, giving Iowa State a reliable ground game to complement Becht’s arm. Eskildsen has emerged as a big-play threat at receiver, averaging nearly 20 yards per catch, while Jayden Higgins has been a consistent possession option. The issue has been finishing drives — Iowa State ranks near the bottom nationally in red-zone efficiency, converting just 75 percent of their trips into points. Against an Arizona State defense that has been stingy against the run, the Cyclones will need Becht to protect the football and make smart decisions to avoid another collapse.
Defensively, Iowa State has been solid overall, giving up 21.8 points per game, but the unit has struggled to close out games during this losing streak. The secondary has been leaky, allowing over 216 passing yards per contest, and BYU exposed them with multiple explosive plays downfield. Linebacker Kooper Ebel and defensive back Marcus Neal have been the standouts, but the Cyclones need more consistency from their pass rush to take pressure off the back end. The good news is that Arizona State’s offensive line has been shaky, and if Iowa State can generate pressure on Leavitt, they could force turnovers and tilt the game in their favor. With both teams desperate to stop their respective slides, this matchup has the feel of a grind-it-out battle where execution in the fourth quarter will decide it.
Arizona State vs Iowa State Pick
Arizona State vs Iowa State Spread Pick
- Arizona State +7.5 (4 Units)
Arizona State +7.5 has value because this feels like the kind of matchup where their defense can keep things tight even without Sam Leavitt under center. The Sun Devils have been strong against the run all season, holding opponents under 120 rushing yards per game, and that plays directly into Iowa State’s strength. If they can force Rocco Becht to throw into tighter windows, the Cyclones’ turnover issues could resurface, giving Arizona State extra possessions. With Raleek Brown capable of breaking big runs and Malik McClain emerging as a reliable target, the Sun Devils don’t need to light up the scoreboard — they just need enough timely plays to stay within striking distance.
On the other side, Iowa State has been inconsistent in finishing games, and that makes laying more than a touchdown risky. The Cyclones have dropped three straight, and in each loss, they’ve either squandered a lead or let turnovers flip momentum. Arizona State’s defense is disciplined enough to take advantage of those mistakes, and their offense, even with a backup quarterback, can lean on the run game to shorten the contest. In what projects as a grind-it-out battle, the Sun Devils catching +7.5 feels like the right side, with their defense and ground attack giving them a path to cover.
Arizona State vs Iowa State Over/Under Pick
- Under 49.5 (5 Units)
The under 49.5 looks like the sharper side because both offenses have struggled with consistency while the defenses are capable of dictating pace. Arizona State, now without Sam Leavitt, will likely lean heavily on Raleek Brown and a conservative game plan, which shortens possessions and limits explosive chances. Iowa State has moved the ball but continues to stall in the red zone, ranking near the bottom nationally in conversion rate, and turnovers have been a recurring issue. With both teams more comfortable grinding it out than trading quick scores, this matchup sets up well for a lower-scoring, possession-driven game that stays under the number.
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