Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Kansas Jayhawks Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 19, 2026

Wembley Stadium in London, England hosts the inaugural Union Jack Classic at noon ET on FS1 — the first-ever college football game played in the United Kingdom — as the Arizona State Sun Devils (1-1) meet the Kansas Jayhawks (1-1) in a historic Big 12 Conference matchup that doubles as one of the most analytically fascinating individual games on Saturday's entire college football board. The Big 12 has emphasized international expansion under commissioner Brett Yormark, and this multi-year Wembley agreement is the most ambitious expression of that ambition — sending two 1-1 conference programs with genuine Big 12 title aspirations to play in a 90,000-seat English football cathedral 5,000 miles from home. Arizona State enter having demolished Morgan State 70-7 before falling 20-48 at No. 10 Texas A&M, while Kansas arrive having beaten LIU 51-6 in their opener before a 21-38 loss to Missouri in the Border War. Read on to find out who covers in our Arizona State vs. Kansas prediction. Get our top College Football Predictions and increase your bankroll!

Arizona State: London Prep the Story, Sun Devils' Big 12 Ceiling Established, Marshall's Mistakes the Warning

Arizona State enter the Union Jack Classic as the market's 5.5-point favorites despite a 1-1 record that includes a 48-20 dismantling at the hands of No. 10 Texas A&M — a road performance that exposed the Sun Devils' defensive vulnerabilities in ways that Kansas's offensive identity is specifically designed to exploit. Arizona State allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 33% of carries on third and long last season — the worst rate in the Big 12 — and allowed six touchdown passes in close-and-late situations, the second-most among Power Conference teams. Those defensive tendencies do not disappear simply because the venue is Wembley Stadium.

The 70-7 dismantling of Morgan State in Week 1 established Arizona State's offensive ceiling — a Sun Devils offense that can generate explosive plays and score in volume against inferior competition. But the Texas A&M game revealed a defense that struggles with elite competition, and Kansas, while not Texas A&M, is a 1-1 Big 12 program with offensive weapons through Isaiah Marshall and Yasin Willis that is better suited to exploit Arizona State's third-down rush defense than the opening two opponents suggested. Arizona State's implied win probability reflects the genuine talent advantage, but the spread at -5.5 asks the Sun Devils to win by two scores in a neutral-site environment neither team has prepared for specifically.

The London context is the great equalizer that makes this spread genuinely interesting — both programs traveled an equal distance from their home bases, neither team has played in this environment before, and the 90,000-seat Wembley atmosphere creates a game-day experience that specifically tests coaching staffs' ability to keep their players focused and emotionally regulated in an unprecedented setting.

Kansas: Marshall Showed His Ceiling Against LIU, Missouri Exposed the Ceiling Against Quality — London the Perfect Bounce-Back Venue

Kansas quarterback Isaiah Marshall completed 14-of-19 passes for 246 yards and two touchdowns in the LIU win — a performance that established the passing game's ceiling when operating against inferior defensive competition. The Missouri loss told a different story: 14-of-31 passing for 174 yards with two interceptions against a quality defense, as the Jayhawks were outgained 469-255 in total yards. That home-road, quality-adjusted split is the most honest available assessment of where Kansas stands as a Big 12 program in 2026.

Kansas has not won a game against the spread this season — an 0-2 ATS record that runs against the +168 underdog pricing the market has assigned. The question facing Kansas is how it will respond to adversity — as it deals with all that comes with traveling to play a game overseas, against a quality Big 12 Conference opponent, can KU bounce back from a disappointing defeat against Missouri? Yasin Willis rushed 11 times for 72 yards and two touchdowns against Missouri before the game slipped away, and his ability to find the gaps that Arizona State's third-down rush defense gives up at a 33% rate is the individual matchup angle that gives Kansas its most realistic path to covering in London.

Kansas has covered the spread in five of its last six road games as an underdog of 5.5 points or more — a specific situational ATS record that the current +5.5 spread falls directly into. The neutral-site environment at Wembley removes Kansas's typical road disadvantage entirely.

Arizona State vs. Kansas Picks

• Spread Pick: Kansas Jayhawks +5.5

Kansas has covered the spread in five of its last six road games as an underdog of 5.5 points or more, and the Union Jack Classic's neutral-site Wembley environment removes the home-field advantage that would typically justify a larger spread against a road Kansas team. Arizona State's defensive vulnerability against the power run — 33% of carries going for 10-plus yards on third and long last season — is the specific matchup angle that Willis and Marshall can exploit to keep this game within a possession through three quarters. Take Kansas and the points in London.

• Over/Under Pick: Over 50.5 

Each of Kansas's games this season has hit the Over, and Arizona State's Week 1 offense generated 70 points against Morgan State — both teams have demonstrated scoring capacity that the 50.5 threshold requires only moderate individual contributions to clear. The neutral Wembley surface removes weather as a suppressive factor, and two 1-1 Big 12 programs motivated by bounce-back performances after Week 2 losses will bring the offensive urgency that drives scoring in the specific game state where both teams need a win. Arizona State's defensive vulnerabilities on third-and-long rushes and in close-and-late situations give Kansas the individual scoring paths needed to push their contribution past 20 points, while Arizona State's offensive ceiling against comparable competition projects the Sun Devils into the 28-35 range. Take the Over 50.5.