Arizona State vs. Mississippi State Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 6th, 2025
The Arizona State Sun Devils (1-0, 0-1 ATS, 1-0 O/U) clash with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-0, 1-0 ATS, 0-1 O/U) in a week two showdown on Saturday afternoon, and we have everything you need to know, along with the prediction. The Sun Devils issued a win against Northern Arizona to begin their season. The Bulldogs recorded a road win against Southern Mississippi. Arizona State posted a 30-23 win against Mississippi State last season.
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Arizona State Begins Season with Home Win
The Arizona State Sun Devils are targeting their second win of the young season. Arizona State is considered the team to beat in the Big 12 this season. They recorded an 11-2 mark last season, including six straight wins at one point. They lost against Texas in the Peach Bowl. The Sun Devils posted a 38-19 home win against Northern Arizona to begin the season. They were huge 30-point favorites. The squad dipped one spot to #12 in this week’s edition of the AP Top 25.
Sam Leavitt is poised for a mammoth season. The sophomore QB was outstanding last year, posting just under 2900 passing yards accompanied by a strong 24:6 TD to INT ratio. He had no issues in the win last week, recording 257 passing yards.
Last season, Arizona State had one of the best running backs in the country in Cam Skattebo, who is in the NFL. The running game is expected to remain a threat after bringing in Kanye Udoh on a transfer. The junior netted 1117 rushing yards with Army last season. The squad returns last year’s receiving leader, Jordan Tyson. The junior WR racked up 1101 receiving yards last year. The Arizona State offense averaged 429 yards per game last year and posted 460 yards in the win last week.
The Sun Devils' defense is also a strength. They return several key starters. Last year’s tackling leader, Myles Rowser, is back, along with safety Xavier Alford. The pass rush was mediocre last year, but should be improved. The Sun Devils conceded an average of 340 yards per game last season. They kept Northern Arizona to 330 yards last week.
Arizona State averaged 32.9 per game last season, ranking them 30th. The Sun Devils conceded an average of 22.6 points, good for 37th.
Mississippi State Seeks Improvement in 2025
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are eying improvement this season after a disastrous 2024 season that resulted in a 2-10 record. They did not win a conference game. The Bulldogs' wins were against Eastern Kentucky and Massachusetts. The program is in another rebuilding season, but improvement is expected. They were voted last in the SEC preseason poll voted by the media. The Bulldogs opened the season with a 34-17 home win against Southern Mississippi to cover the 15-point spread.
Blake Shapen is the #1 QB. The senior split the duties last season and posted strong numbers, amassing 974 passing yards and tossing just one pick. Shapen registered 270 passing yards in the opener. The squad returns last year’s top rusher, Davon Booth. The senior RB rushed for 759 yards on five yards per rush in 2024. Booth was key in the win last week, producing 79 yards.
Jordan Mosley is a key receiver. The senior brought in 405 yards in 2024 and made two receptions for 19 yards last week. Brenen Thompson is a key from Oklahoma. The senior posted 92 receiving yards in the opener. The Mississippi State offense posted 370 yards per game last season and netted 465 yards against Southern Mississippi.
The Bulldogs' defense was their biggest weakness last season, ranking near last in many categories. They revamped the defense via transfers. Red Hibbler is a key new player. The senior defensive end played for NC State last year. Last year’s tackling leader, Isaac Smith, is back after posting 127 tackles. The Bulldogs surrendered 471 yards per game last season, and just 300 yards last week.
Mississippi State scored an average of 25.8 points last season, rating them 85th. The Bulldogs squandered an average of 34.1 points, pegging them 118th.
The Arizona State Sun Devils are a great team, but the Mississippi State Bulldogs are an improved squad compared to last season. They return their #1 QB, Blake Shapen, who missed more than half of last season due to injury. They also bring back their top RB. While it was an easy opponent last week, Mississippi State was sharp, winning by 17 points on 465 total yards.
Furthermore, Mississippi State has a dangerous passing offense that is going to surprise opponents. They were above average at 51st in passing yards per game last year, and that's with their #1 QB, Blake Shapen, missing half the season. This is key when considering the Sun Devils' pass defense was below average last year, ranking 70th in the country. The Bulldogs only lost by seven points in the meeting against the Sun Devils last season.
Arizona State vs. Mississippi State Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
| 4 |  David Hess | +1,745.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
Spread Pick for Arizona State vs. Mississippi State
- Mississippi State Bulldogs +6.5 (5 Units)
I expect a barrage of scoring. Arizona State has a potent passing offense that returns its top QB and WR. They scored an average of 35.6 points in their last five regular-season games last year and racked up 460 total yards in the win last week. The Bulldogs surrendered 39 or more points in all but two home games last season. The Bulldogs' defense was exposed last year, and while better this season, it's a work in progress.
In addition, Mississippi State has a proven QB in Blake Shapen, who threw for 270 yards last week. The Sun Devils' pass defense is good but not great. They did not have a tough opponent last week, but still surrendered 330 total yards at home. The first game of the season on the road is never easy. The over is a convincing 6-0 in the Bulldogs’ past six home games.
Over/Under Pick for Arizona State vs. Mississippi State
- Total: Over 59 (5 Units)
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