Arizona vs. SMU, Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday, January 2, 2026

The bowl season continues with the Holiday Bowl and this Arizona vs. SMU prediction on Friday at 8 pm ET. Arizona (9-3) comes into this game as the No. 17 team, finishing 6-3 in the Big 12, tying with two other teams for fourth place. SMU (8-4) wound up tied with four other teams at 6-2 for second place in the ACC. Both teams are playing well as the Wildcats have won five straight coming into this bowl game, while the Mustangs have won three of their last four. Arizona is a 2.5-point favorite and the total is 52.5. Check out more college football free picks and NFL week 18 action at Winners and Whiners.

Arizona's elite pass defense will be tested

Arizona is facing a big-time passing attack when they face SMU, a top passing attack, on Friday. However, Arizona ranks third in the nation against the pass, allowing just 155.9 yards, so they appear to match up well. The Wildcats' defense has been excellent in their five-game winning streak, allowing an average of 17 points per game. Arizona does not have a pass rusher with over four sacks, but they have a difference-maker in safety Dalton Johnson, who has four interceptions and 97 tackles.

The Wildcats have a solid quarterback in Noah Fifita, who has 2,963 yards passing with 26 TDs and just five picks (64.2%). RB Ismail Mahdi adds 791 rushing yards and four TDs with a 6.4 yards per carry average. WR Kris Hutson leads Arizona with 57 catches for 740 yards and four TDs.

Arizona has just one major opt out and that's OL Michael Wooten, who plans to enter the portal.

Jennings leads high-flying Mustangs

SMU had two tough losses in the ACC, including their regular-season finale at Cal 38-35 and to Wake Forest (13-12) on Oct. 25. They have won six of their last eight games, which included a dominant home win over Louisville 38-6 on Nov. 22. They also played two Big 12 teams in their non-conference slate, losing to Baylor in overtime by three and to SMU by 11.

The Mustangs are in good shape health-wise and do not have any key players opting out or going into the portal. SMU's strength, as mentioned above, is its passing game, which ranks 11th in the nation with 283.5 yards per game. QB Kevin Jennings has thrown for 3,363 yards, 26 touchdowns and 10 INTs. RB T.J. Harden leads the ground attack with 747 yards with seven TDs (4.6ypc). WR Jordan Hudson leads the Mustangs with 56 catches for 749 yards and six TDs.

On defense, they have a strong pass rush led by DE Isaiah Smith, who has 8.5 sacks, while DT Terry Webb adds 5.5 sacks and four passes defensed. Safety Ahmaad Moses leads the Mustangs with 91 tackles and five interceptions.

Spread Picks for Arizona vs. SMU

Arizona vs. SMU Prediction and Picks

Arizona -2.5 (4 units)

This should be a fun game. SMU has played some tight games, but they've already lost to two Big 12 teams, and they're playing a red-hot squad, having won five straight and covered in four of their last five. The fact that Arizona has one of the nation's top pass defenses helps negate Jennings and that outstanding passing attack. Arizona has their own strong passing game, and this is where the biggest advantage is. The Wildcats' passing attack against the Mustang's pass D. SMU's passing defense ranks 134th, allowing 284.7 yards per game.

Totals Pick for SMU vs. Arizona

• Over 52.5 (4 units)

SMU is going to score points even against a tough Arizona defense. They average 32.9 points and Arizona averages 32.6 points. SMU's pass defense will get shredded by Noah Fifita and company. They also allow over 390 yards per game overall.