Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Ole Miss Rebels Prediction and Picks - September 13, 2025
Use Code WWWC Saturday evening college football action, and we have an Arkansas vs Mississippi prediction ready to roll. The Razorbacks improved to 2-0 on the year with a 56-14 home win over Arkansas State, while the Rebels are also 2-0 on the year and come in off a 30-23 road win over Kentucky. Ole Miss has won the last two meetings between these teams. Can Arkansas grab a big road win? Read on to see our Arkansas vs Ole Miss prediction.
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The Hogs Crush In-State Rival
Arkansas didn’t just win last weekend—they detonated. The Razorbacks dropped 56 points on Arkansas State in a game that felt over before the first commercial break. Taylen Green was electric, racking up 420 total yards and four passing touchdowns while slicing through defenders for a 64-yard score on the ground. Mike Washington Jr. added a 53-yard house call of his own, and the Hogs averaged a ridiculous 11.5 yards per carry. The offense is humming, but it’s been against soft competition. Now comes the SEC gauntlet—and Ole Miss is first in line.
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The Razorbacks have speed, depth, and a quarterback who can flip a game with one play. But the run game, while explosive, still lacks a true bell cow. Washington and Braylen Russell have flashed, but neither has logged more than 10 carries in a game. That’s fine when you’re scoring in two-play drives, but against SEC defenses, Arkansas will need sustained production and better ball control. The receivers—led by O’Mega Blake and Raylen Sharpe—have already matched last season’s touchdown total, and Bobby Petrino’s playbook is clearly built for fireworks.
Defensively, Arkansas has shown bite. They racked up four sacks and ten tackles for loss against Arkansas State, with Xavian Sorey Jr. leading the charge before exiting with a minor quad bruise. Quincy Rhodes and Phillip Lee were relentless off the edge, and the Hogs have started mixing in creative third-down packages to compensate for depth concerns. But special teams miscues and second-quarter lapses are red flags. If Arkansas wants to hang in Oxford, they’ll need four quarters of clean football—and a defense that doesn’t blink when the Rebels push tempo.
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Huge Road Win For The Rebels
Ole Miss survived a scare in Lexington, but make no mistake: this team is built to win shootouts. The Rebels edged Kentucky 30–23 in their SEC opener, overcoming two early picks from QB Austin Simmons and a hostile road crowd. Simmons settled in, threw for 235 yards, and added a rushing score before exiting late with a minor injury (Check Status). RB Kewan Lacy was the star, torching the Wildcats for 138 yards and a touchdown. Lane Kiffin’s offense has now piled up 1,150 yards in two games—and they haven’t even hit top gear yet.
This is a team that thrives on chaos. Simmons has a cannon, Wallace III is a vertical threat, and Lacy gives them balance when defenses drop back. The Rebels had four plays of 20+ yards last week and converted key fourth downs with gutsy play calls. Backup QB Trinidad Chambliss finished the game, and while Simmons is expected to start, Ole Miss has options. The offensive line has held up well, and the Rebels are averaging 6.8 yards per play—good for top-15 nationally. If they clean up the turnovers, this unit can hang 40 on anyone.
Defensively, Ole Miss is still figuring things out. They gave up 23 to Kentucky and allowed two short-field touchdowns off turnovers. But they tightened up late, forcing a turnover on downs and holding the Wildcats scoreless in the final eight minutes. The Rebels recorded three sacks and four TFLs, and their secondary—led by Ricky Fletcher—has shown flashes of lockdown coverage. The challenge now is consistency. Arkansas will test their edge containment and vertical discipline, and if Ole Miss wants to stay unbeaten, they’ll need to win the line of scrimmage and keep Green from freelancing into highlight reels.
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Arkansas Razorbacks vs Ole Miss Rebels Pick
Arkansas vs Ole Miss Spread Pick
Arkansas catching +7 in this spot feels like a sharp grab, especially with historical trends tilting heavily toward the underdog. The Razorbacks are 12–2 against the spread in the last 14 meetings with Ole Miss, consistently punching above their weight in this rivalry. Taylen Green’s dual-threat ability gives Arkansas a dynamic edge, and Bobby Petrino’s offense has already proven it can generate explosive plays in bunches. Ole Miss may have the flash, but Arkansas has the grit—and they’ve covered in six of their last seven as road dogs. That’s not noise; that’s a pattern.
Ole Miss has the talent edge on paper, but they’ve been inconsistent against the number, especially when laying points. Austin Simmons is still settling in, and while the Rebels are 2–0, they’ve failed to cover in one of those games and nearly let Kentucky steal the other. Arkansas, meanwhile, has scored 50+ in both outings and ranks top-20 nationally in yards per play. If the Hogs can control tempo and avoid early turnovers, they’re built to keep this close—or steal it outright. With the line sitting at a field goal, the value clearly leans toward the team that’s made a habit of outperforming expectations in this exact matchup.
- Arkansas +7 (5 Units)
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Arkansas vs Ole Miss Over/Under Pick
The total sits at 61.5, but this matchup has the ingredients for a slower, more methodical game than the number suggests. Arkansas has leaned into a clock-controlling identity, ranking top-10 nationally in time of possession and averaging over 35 rush attempts per game. Taylen Green’s mobility adds chunk-play potential, but Bobby Petrino’s offense has shown a preference for grinding out drives when facing higher-caliber defenses. Ole Miss, meanwhile, has gone under the total in 10 of its last 14 games and has struggled to finish drives cleanly—especially when Simmons is pressured early.
Defensively, both teams have flashed enough to keep this from turning into a track meet. Arkansas has allowed just 10.5 points per game and brings pressure from multiple fronts, while Ole Miss has tightened up in second halves, holding Kentucky scoreless in the final eight minutes last week. Add in the SEC factor—where tempo tends to slow and possessions get more valuable—and this game could easily settle into a 27–24 type of rhythm. Unless turnovers spark short fields or special teams break loose, the under feels like the sharper side in a matchup that’s more physical than flashy.
- Under 61.5 (4 Units)
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