Arkansas State Red Wolves vs UL Monroe Warhawks Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 27, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Arkansas State Red Wolves (1-3, 0-0 Sun Belt) pay a visit to Monroe, Louisiana, and Malone Stadium on Saturday to play the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (2-1, 0-0 Sun Belt). Arkansas State lost to Kennesaw State 28-21 last Saturday for its third straight loss after opening the season with a win. Louisiana Monroe defeated UTEP 31-25 last Saturday. The Warhawks opened the season by beating Saint Francis (29-0), followed by a loss to Alabama (73-0). Arkansas State will play without RB Ja’Quez Cross, while one other player is questionable. Louisiana-Monroe does not have any players listed on its injury report. Make sure to read this in-depth Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Louisiana Monroe Warhawks prediction. Exciting vibes? Get ready with our free NCAAF picks for the Arkansas State Red Wolves at UL Monroe Warhawks prediction and stay ahead of the game.
Arkansas State is performing poorly on offense, but is even worse on defense
Arkansas State scores an average of 23.3 points per game, which is 100th, while allowing an average of 33.0 points per game, which is 122nd. The Arkansas State offense averages 369.3 yards per game, which is 87th, while the defense allows an average of 485.8 yards of offense per game, which is 133rd, or third from the bottom.
Arkansas State quarterback Jaylen Raynor has 918 yards passing with six touchdowns and three interceptions, but has been sacked eight times. Devin Spencer is the leading rusher with 165 yards, averaging 5.2 yards per carry with one touchdown. The aerial attack is led by Chauncy Cobb, who has 241 yards receiving, averaging 12.7 yards per reception. Six different players for Arkansas State each have one touchdown reception. Kicker Clune Van Andel has made each of his 12 extra point attempts and is three of four in field goal attempts. Linebacker Nigel Nelson is the leading tackler with 25. The leader in quarterback sacks is lineman Ethan Hassler with 1.5. Arkansas State's defense has made seven quarterback sacks and intercepted three passes
Louisiana Monroe needs to improve on both sides of the ball
The Louisiana Monroe Warhawks score an average of only 20.0 points per game, which is 115th, and allow an average of 32.7 points per game, which is 118th. Louisiana Monroe averages 327 yards of total offense per game, which is 111th, and allows an average of 385.3 yards per game, which is 94th.
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Louisiana Monroe is much stronger on the ground, averaging 218.0 yards per game rushing, which is 26th, while averaging 109.0 yards per game passing, which is 133rd. Quarterback Aidan Armenta has 259 yards passing with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Braylon McReynolds is the leading rusher with 244 yards, averaging 6.8 yards per carry with one touchdown. Dorian Lewis is second with 131 yards rushing. Jake Godfrey has 70 yards receiving, averaging 14.0 yards per reception with one touchdown. Louisiana Monroe's kicker Luke Stagg is 6-for-6 on extra points and 2-for-3 in field goal attempts. Linebacker Noah Flemmings is the leading tackler with 17. Two players lead Louisiana Monroe in quarterback sacks with 2.0 each. The Warhawks’ defense has made six quarterback sacks and intercepted three passes.
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. UL Monroe Warhawks Pick
Spread Pick for Arkansas State vs. UL Monroe
- Louisiana Monroe Warhawks -2.5 ( units)
It is rare when Louisiana Monroe is favored, but this is one of those times. The Warhawks struggle on both sides of the line of scrimmage, but not as much as Arkansas State does. Arkansas State is 87th in total offense, and the Red Wolves are 133rd out of 136 on defense. Arkansas State is scoring an average of 23.3 points per game while allowing opponents to score 33.0 points per game. The Red Wolves have failed to cover the spread in two of the last three games, while Louisiana Monroe is coming off an upset victory over UTEP in which they won by six points as a 5.5-point road underdog. Louisiana Monroe will use its ground game, which averages 218 yards rushing against the 133rd-ranked defense of Arkansas State, to wear down the front seven and win.
Over/Under Pick for Arkansas State vs. UL Monroe
- Under 55.5 (4 units)
Both defenses are well below average, but at the same time, both offenses are also performing poorly. The total has finished under in each of Arkansas State's last two games. Louisiana Monroe will use its solid running game to move up and down the field against a weak Arkansas State defense, which will result in long sustained drives that eat plenty of time off the clock, creating fewer possessions for each team, thus fewer total points.
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