Arkansas State vs. Kennesaw State Prediction and Picks - September 20, 2025
Use Code WWWC Saturday night College Football action, and we have an Arkansas State vs. Kennesaw State Prediction ready to rock and roll for you. The Red Wolves come in off a 24-16 home loss to Iowa State to fall to 1-2 on the year. Kennesaw State is also 1-2 on the year, and they come in off a 27-13 home win over Merrimack. Which team will nab it's 2nd win of the year? Read on to see our Arkansas State vs. Kennesaw State prediction.
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Red Wolves Fight Hard But Come Up Short vs Iowa State
Arkansas State enters Saturday looking to rebound after a 24–16 loss to Iowa State, where the offense moved the ball but couldn’t finish drives. Quarterback Jaylen Raynor threw for 222 yards on 19-of-33 passing but failed to find the end zone through the air, adding 83 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground. Chauncy Cobb led the receiving corps with 81 yards on seven catches, while Kenyon Clay chipped in 51 rushing yards. Despite the loss, the Red Wolves showed flashes of balance and tempo, especially in the second half, and will look to build on that against a softer defensive front.
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The Red Wolves are averaging 24 points per game this season, ranking 88th nationally, and their offensive identity leans on dual-threat quarterback play and short-area efficiency. They’ve converted 47.8% of third downs—34th in the FBS—and will be facing a Kennesaw State defense that ranks 116th in third-down stops. Arkansas State also ranks 73rd in total offense (386.3 yards per game), and while they’ve struggled to finish drives, their ability to move the chains and control possession gives them a clear edge in matchups like this. Expect Raynor to be heavily involved in both phases, especially if the run game stalls early.
Defensively, Arkansas State has been vulnerable, allowing 34.7 points per game and ranking 120th in scoring defense. They’ve given up 282 passing yards and 200 rushing yards per game, often struggling to contain mobile quarterbacks and chunk plays. That said, they’ve been more disciplined against lower-tier opponents and have covered the spread in two of three games this season. With Kennesaw State averaging just 15 points per game and lacking explosive weapons, the Red Wolves have a chance to control field position and force the Owls into predictable passing situations. If the defense can hold early, Arkansas State’s offense should be able to build a lead and manage the clock.
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Owls Topple Merrimack For First Win
Kennesaw State comes into Saturday off a 27–13 win over Merrimack, where they scored 17 points in the third quarter and leaned on efficient quarterback play to seal the victory. Amari Odom completed 12-of-14 passes for 108 yards and a touchdown, adding 22 rushing yards and another score on the ground. Alexander Diggs led the backfield with 55 yards on nine carries, while Christian Moss hauled in five catches for 60 yards. It was a clean, controlled performance that gave the Owls their first win of the season and a much-needed confidence boost heading into Week 4.
Offensively, the Owls have struggled to generate consistent production, averaging just 15 points per game and ranking 120th nationally. Their passing attack is conservative by design, and while Odom has shown accuracy, the lack of vertical threats limits their ability to stretch defenses. The run game has been serviceable, averaging 140 yards per contest, but they’ve yet to break a game open with explosive plays. Against an Arkansas State defense that’s allowed over 480 yards per game, Kennesaw State will need to lean on tempo and short-yardage execution to stay competitive. Sustained drives and red zone efficiency will be critical.
Defensively, the Owls have been middle-of-the-pack, allowing 26.3 points per game and ranking 93rd in scoring defense. They’ve struggled on third downs and have given up 412.7 yards per game, including 186 on the ground. That sets up a tough challenge against a Red Wolves offense that thrives on quarterback mobility and short-area passing. Kennesaw State will need to tighten up its tackling and avoid giving Raynor clean running lanes, especially on broken plays. If they can force Arkansas State into long-yardage situations and win the turnover battle, they’ll have a shot to keep this one close into the fourth quarter.
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Arkansas State vs. Kennesaw State Pick
Arkansas State vs. Kennesaw State Spread Pick
- Kennesaw State +5 (4 Units)
Kennesaw State +5 offers real value in a matchup where Arkansas State’s defense has struggled to contain even modest offenses. The Owls are coming off a 27–13 win over Merrimack, where quarterback Amari Odom completed 85.7% of his passes and accounted for two touchdowns. Their run game averaged 5.4 yards per carry, and the defense held Merrimack to just 2.1 yards per rush. While Arkansas State has more raw talent, they’ve allowed 34.7 points per game and rank 132nd in total defense, giving up over 480 yards per contest. That opens the door for Kennesaw State to stay within striking distance, especially if they control tempo and avoid turnovers.
The spread also favors a team that’s trending upward. Kennesaw State has covered once already as a 4.5-point underdog and now faces a Red Wolves squad that’s 1–2 and coming off a loss to Iowa State where they failed to score through the air. Arkansas State’s offense has been inconsistent, and while Jaylen Raynor is a dynamic dual-threat, he’s thrown just four touchdown passes all season. If the Owls can contain his scrambling and force Arkansas State into third-and-long situations, they’ll have a chance to grind out possessions and keep the game close. With home-field advantage and a defense that’s quietly improving, Kennesaw State +5 shapes up as a sharp play in a game that could come down to the final drive.
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Arkansas State vs. Kennesaw State Over/Under Pick
- Under 56.5 (5 Units)
Under 56.5 is a strong fit for this matchup, with both teams leaning on ball control and short-area execution rather than explosive scoring. Kennesaw State averages just 15 points per game and ranks 115th in total offense, while Arkansas State—despite its tempo—has struggled to finish drives, posting just 24 points per game and converting red zone trips at a below-average clip. Both defenses are vulnerable but bend more than break, and with Amari Odom and Jaylen Raynor operating run-heavy schemes, the clock should move quickly. Unless turnovers lead to short fields, this game profiles as a grind with limited possessions and few deep shots.
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