Arkansas vs. Texas Odds, Preview, Picks, and Prediction for Saturday, November 22, 2025
On Saturday, the Arkansas Razorbacks will visit the Texas Longhorns for a Week 13 NCAAF game at Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium. The Southeastern Conference matchup is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET.
The Longhorns are 8.5-point spread favorites, and the total is 58 points scored.
This Arkansas vs. Texas prediction highlights a Hogs team that is 0-6 in SEC play (last place) and 0-4 on the road, and a Horns squad that's 4-2 in conference competition (tied for fourth place) and 4-0 at home this season. UT beat Arkansas 20-10 last season in their first matchup as SEC rivals. The programs have a long shared history on the gridiron, as they first faced off in 1894 and played annually as members of the Southwest Conference. The Longhorns lead the series 57-23.
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Arkansas has dropped a lot of close games this year
Arkansas (2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS, and 7-3 O/U) is still searching for its first win since Week 2, but it has been competitive in most of its games.
While unable to get in the win column, the Razorbacks only lost by single digits in seven of their eight defeats. They covered the spread as 4.5-point underdogs last weekend at LSU, jumping out to a 14-0 lead and keeping the score close with a dominant run game (35 carries for 175 yards). They couldn't sustain their momentum, however, as they lost the turnover battle 3-0 and struggled to move the chains (2-for-11 on third down).
“We had a lot of chances to win that game going all the way back to the first half,” Razorbacks interim coach Bobby Petrino said. “We got down into the red zone too many times and didn’t come away with points. We have to make those plays... Offense, defense, and special teams, we all had our opportunities to find a way to win the game, and we didn’t get it done.”
Senior QB Taylen Green leads Arkansas with 2,537 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, and ten interceptions. He has completed 62.1 percent of his passes, averaging 8.7 yards per attempt. The dual-threat has also rushed for 719 yards and seven scores, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. A couple of other Razorbacks to watch this weekend against the Longhorns are senior RB Mike Washington Jr. (140 carries for 913 yards and seven TDs) and senior WR O'Mega Blake (51 receptions for 678 yards and four TDs).
Arkansas scores 34.1 points per game (26th) and averages 470.0 total yards (15th), including 264.6 passing yards (35th) and 205.4 rushing yards (19th). The Hogs' defense allows 32.3 points (121st) and 426.5 total yards (122nd) per game, including 245.3 passing yards (107th) and 181.2 rushing yards (114th).
Arkansas Razorbacks Football Injury Report:
- RB Braylen Russell (286 yards and five TDs) is questionable after missing last weekend's game with a concussion.
Longhorns seek a bounce-back win at home
Texas (7-3 SU, 2-7-1 ATS, and 4-6 O/U) enters Saturday's game winners of four of its last five games, but it hasn't been easy.
The Longhorns started the streak with a statement win over rival Oklahoma, but failed to cover the spread as favorites in their next three games against Kentucky (OT win), Mississippi State (OT win), and Vanderbilt (three-point win). They were unable to sustain their momentum last Saturday against fifth-ranked Georgia, as a competitive game turned ugly in the fourth quarter. UGA led 14-3 at halftime, but UT narrowed the gap to 14-10 in the third, when junior QB Arch Manning connected with sophomore WR Ryan Wingo for a seven-yard score. The Dawgs matched them with a touchdown on the ensuing possession and then buried the Longhorns with a surprise onside kick, resulting in a 21-0 fourth-quarter scoring advantage.
“I would not say that they lost composure,” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said. “I think we lost some focus, we lost some intensity in the fourth quarter.”
Manning leads the Longhorns' aerial attack with 2,374 yards (62.7% CMP%), 19 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. He has also rushed for six scores. Manning's top receiving targets are Wingo (40 receptions for 655 yards and six TDs) and junior WR DeAndre Moore Jr. (34 receptions for 454 yards and one TD). Junior RB CJ Baxter (97 carries for 375 yards and three scores) is Texas' top running back.
The Longhorns score 27.6 points per game (69th) and average 370.7 total yards (81st), including 246.6 passing yards (52nd) and 124.1 rushing yards (103rd). The Texas defense surrenders 18.3 points (16th) and 317.9 total yards (20th) per game, including 234.7 passing yards (90th) and 83.2 rushing yards (6th).
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Texas Longhorns Football Injury Report:
- LB Anthony Hill Jr. (Texas' leading tackler) is questionable with a hand injury sustained vs Georgia. He is "limited" and day-to-day, per Sarkisian.
- WR Ryan Wingo (leading receiver) is probable to play vs Arkansas (thumb).
Arkansas vs. Texas Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for Arkansas vs. Texas
- Longhorns -8.5 (4 Units)
Texas may not be a national title or CFP contender, but it's still a talented team. The Longhorns weren't quite as overmatched as the final score in last week's loss to Georgia suggests, and their only losses this season were against top-five teams. With wins over Oklahoma and Vanderbilt, they have shown up against good competition, as well.
While Arkansas has kept most of its games close, I'm skeptical its defense will be competitive enough to allow it to cover. The Longhorns should use this matchup as an opportunity to work on their ground game, reducing the Hogs' possession count. Manning should also fare just fine at home in more of a game-manager role. He'll have his opportunities, too, against an Arkansas pass defense prone to explosive plays (fifth-most 20-plus yard passing plays allowed). By controlling the time of possession, the Texas defense will be rested enough to make winning plays, too. The Horns can generate pressure and create takeaways (18th in Havoc rate), which has been an issue for Arkansas (two or more turnovers in five of the last seven games).
Over/Under Pick for Arkansas vs. Texas
- Over 58 (4 Units)
The Longhorns will be much sharper this week at home, with Manning passing for 250-plus yards and the run game contributing at least 175. The Razorbacks can't stop anyone, especially in the red zone (115th in red zone defense). Texas will be motivated to "get right" before its season finale against third-ranked A&M, and there's nothing better than home cookin'. The visitors will also have their fair share of offensive success. Arkansas failed to come away with any points on two red-zone trips against LSU, but has one of the most productive red zone offenses in the country, ranking fifth nationally with a touchdown percentage of 78.1%. Texas' defense, meanwhile, allows a touchdown on 68.2% of its opponents' red zone trips (113th).
Texas will win 37-24. Bet on the total to be over 58 points!
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