Auburn Tigers at Oklahoma Sooners Prediction and Picks – September 20, 2025

Auburn heads to Norman for a big-time SEC opener against Oklahoma, with both teams rolling in at 3-0. The Sooners have owned the series, winning all three meetings, including last year’s 27-21 battle at Auburn.

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Tigers going for the upset

Jackson Arnold has been the real deal so far, throwing for more than 500 yards with four touchdowns and adding plenty on the ground. His 150-yard rushing game against Baylor in a 38-24 win showed how dangerous he is when he tucks it and runs. He’s got weapons too, with Eric Singleton Jr. and Cam Coleman stretching defenses, while Jeremiah Cobb has churned out 314 rushing yards and four scores. The Tigers are putting up 37 points a game and have looked sharp in wins over Ball State (42-3) and South Alabama (31-15).

On defense, Auburn has been a mixed bag. They’ve missed too many tackles and given up chunk plays, ranking outside the top 100 in key efficiency metrics. Still, they’re only allowing 14 points a game and have the athletes up front to make things tough on John Mateer if they can get home.

The injury list has some concerns. Running back Durell Robinson is out, while corner Jay Crawford and edge Amaris Williams are doubtful.

Big test for Sooners

Oklahoma has rolled through its first three, beating Illinois State (35-3), Michigan (24-13), and Temple (42-3). Mateer, a transfer from Washington State, has looked comfortable, throwing for 944 yards with five touchdowns and adding another four on the ground. Tory Blaylock has led the backfield, while Jaren Kanak and Deion Burks have been reliable targets, combining for nearly 500 yards. The Sooners are putting up 35.7 points per game and rank top 20 nationally in passing yards. There could be a problem upfront, as three starting linemen are out, which could make things interesting against Auburn’s edge rushers.

Defensively, Oklahoma has been lights out, giving up only 6.3 points per game and ranking second nationally in pass defense success rate. They’ve shut down third downs, allowing just seven conversions on 41 tries. Last year, it was the defense that sealed the win late at Auburn, and this group looks even better.

Prediction and Picks

ATS pick:

• Auburn +6.5 (4 units)

Auburn’s got enough firepower to hang around. Arnold can extend plays, Cobb can move the chains, and Oklahoma’s thin offensive line could give the Tigers a shot to make a few momentum-shifting plays on the defensive end. Auburn might not win outright, but they’re live to cover the number.

Total pick:

• Under 49.5 (3 units)

Both offenses can put up points, but injuries and strong red zone defenses should keep this from turning into a shootout. The Sooners have been outstanding defensively thus far. Auburn will want to slow the pace, and Oklahoma may have to adjust without its full line. This one sets up better for the under.