Ball State Cardinals vs. Toledo Rockets Picks and Prediction for Saturday, November 22, 2025
Use Code WWWC A pair of MAC programs collide on the gridiron in the Buckeye State as the Ball State Cardinals travel to take on the Toledo Rockets Saturday afternoon and we have you covered with our Ball State vs. Toledo prediction. Ball State fell 24-9 at home to Eastern Michigan in their previous contest last Saturday, failing to cover the line as a three-point underdog. Toledo rolled past Miami (OH) 24-3 on the road last Wednesday in their previous game, covering the line as a 5.5-point favorite. In the all-time series between the schools, the Rockets own a 27-21-1 advantage and have won the last three meetings, including a 13-6 road win in the most recent matchup on October 14, 2023. Read more about this Ball State vs. Toledo prediction! Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!
Ball State Trying to Pick Up Road Upset
Ball State was shut down at home by Eastern Michigan in their previous contest last week and now go on the road for this contest. The Cardinals dropped to 4-6 overall on the season and stand 3-3 in MAC play on the season. Against Eastern Michigan, Ball State found themselves down 7-0 after the opening quarter and 17-3 at the half. The Cardinals never got closer than 11 the rest of the way and failed to reach the end zone in the contest. Ball State was outgained 380-225 in total offense, gave up 21 first downs while recording 13 and lost time of possession by a 31:09 to 28:51 margin. Those numbers more than offset that they forced two turnovers while committing one in the contest.
For the season, the Cardinals are 133rd in the nation in passing offense with 127.3 yards per game through the air, while they are 90th in rushing offense with 137.2 yards per contest. Ball State is 133rd in the FBS in scoring offense with 15.7 points per game and 89th in scoring defense as they allow an average of 27.5 points per contest. Kiael Kelly is 126 passing for 1,217 yards with eight touchdowns and six interceptions while adding 537 yards plus five scores on the ground. Aidan Leffler (zero of one) and Qian Magwoood (one of one, 19 yards, TD) have seen limited action under center. Qua Ashley leads the running back room with 107 carries for 525 yards and four scores on the ground. Eric Weatherly (12 carries, 103 yards) and TJ Horton (52 carries, 177 yards) are next in line for the run game. Weatherly leads the team in the passing game with 25 receptions for 162 yards and two scores this season. Donovan Hamilton (13 receptions, 133 yards), Kobe Gross (10 catches, 141 yards, TD), Ashley (20 catches, 105 yards, TD), Ty Robinson (11 receptions, 113 yards) and Magwood (14 grabs, 257 yards, TD) are the only players with more than 100 receiving yards on the season. Carson Holmer is 14 of 14 on extra point attempts and three of seven on field goal attempts with a long of 23 on the year. DC Pippin is two of two on extra point attempts and four of six field goal attempts with a long of 42.
Key Injury Report for Ball State:
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- Running back Qua Ashley (undisclosed) is questionable.
Rockets Seeking Third Straight Win
Toledo won their second straight and their third in the last four games as it rolled past Miami (OH) on the road last week. The Rockets improved to 6-4 overall on the year and stand 4-2 in the MAC on the season. Against Miami (OH), Toledo broke a scoreless tie with a pair of touchdowns in the final six minutes of the first half to take a 14-0 lead. The Rockets pushed the lead to 24-0 in the third quarter and kept the RedHawks out of the end zone en route to the win. Toledo owned a 312-222 edge in total offense and owned a slim 30:09 to 29:51 margin in time of possession. Both teams recorded 15 first downs in the game and turned the ball over three times in the contest.
On the year, the Rockets are 45th in the nation in passing offense with 250.4 yards per contest, while they are 48th in rushing offense with 174.3 yards per game. Toledo is 42nd in the FBS in scoring offense as they put up 32 points per contest, and 5th in scoring defense, as they allow an average of 13.4 points per contest this season. Tucker Gleason is 183 of 279 passing for 2,199 yards with 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions while adding 103 yards plus four scores on the ground. John Allan Richter (17 of 25, 153 yards, three TD, INT, 15 rush yards) and Kalieb Osborne (10 of 15, 152 yards, TD, 152 rush yards, two TD) have seen limited action. Chip Trayanum leads the team in the run game with 135 carries for 728 yards and nine scores this season. Kenji Christian (85 carries, 441 yards, three TD) and Willie Shaw III (15 carries, 85 yards) are in the mix as well. Junior Vandeross III leads the team with 64 catches for 749 yards and nine scores this season. Javon Brown (seven receptions, 149 yards, TD), Jacob Petersen (20 grabs, 258 yards, two TD), Trayvon Rudolph (34 catches, 381 yards, TD), and Trayanum (14 receptions, 128 yards, TD) are good targets in the passing game. Dylan Cunanan is 40 of 40 on extra point attempts and seven of nine on field goal attempts with a long of 32 on the year. Anthony Ruggles is one of one on extra point attempts and has not attempted a field goal this season.
Key Injury Report for Toledo:
- Quarterback John Allen Richter (undisclosed) is questionable.
Ball State vs. Toledo Pick
Spread Pick for Ball State vs. Toledo
- Toledo -27.5 (4 units)
Ball State has won four games but their offensive attack is suspect at best. Ashley missed the game against Eastern Michigan last week and trying to go on the road, where they are 0-5 on the year, doesn’t inspire much in the way of confidence. The Cardinals have lost four of those games by at least two touchdowns and three of them came by at least 31 points. Toledo is a stingy defensive team as they are fifth in the nation in scoring defense this season. The Rockets are a perfect 5-0 at home with each win coming by at least 24 points. Toledo should roll to a one-sided triumph here.
Over/Under Pick for Ball State vs. Toledo
- Under 46.5 (4 units)
Ball State has stayed under the number in seven of their 10 games this season. The Cardinals have stayed under the number in four of their five road games this season, including in losses to Purdue and Auburn. Toledo has split their 10 games in relation to the number this season. The Rockets have gone over the number in four of their five home games on the year. With that said, Toledo has done most of the heavy lifting as they have hung at least 45 points in each of their home games. They could do the same here and still end up under the mark as you can’t trust Ball State to do much of anything offensively.
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