Baylor vs. SMU Prediction and Picks - September 6, 2025
The No. 17 SMU Mustangs will host the Baylor Bears on Saturday at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas.
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Check out our SMU vs. Baylor prediction.
Baylor went 4-0 head-to-head against SMU when these programs faced each other from 2012 to 2016, but they have not met since. Check out our Free College Football Picks to help you win this season!
Baylor Bears coming off loss to Auburn
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
| 4 |  David Hess | +1,745.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
Baylor’s trip to Auburn was a mixed bag. The Bears actually out-gained the Tigers 483-415, led by quarterback Sawyer Robertson’s strong showing. He went 27-for-48 for 419 yards and three touchdowns, averaging nearly nine yards per attempt without a turnover. The run game, however, never got going, as Baylor finished with only 64 yards on 24 carries, led by Bryson Washington (54 yards) and Caden Knighten (29 yards), far behind Auburn’s 307 rushing yards. On the plus side, the Bears protected the ball and had no fumbles.
Defensively, Baylor could not get Auburn’s offense off the field when it needed to, giving up too many chunk plays and key conversions. Baylor head coach Dave Aranda, now in his sixth season, is just 31-31 overall and looking for a big win to spark his program.
Is SMU ready for the step up in competition?
SMU enters with confidence after a dominant 42-13 win over East Texas A&M in its opener. Coming off last year’s national playoff berth, head coach Rhett Lashlee has a balanced, experienced roster. Sophomore quarterback Kevin Jennings set the tone, completing 22 of 30 passes for 260 yards and two touchdowns. Receiver Romello Brinson (7 catches, 121 yards, 1 TD) led the passing attack as the Mustangs piled up 25 first downs and 400 total yards.
The run game added balance with 140 yards on 33 carries (4.2 per rush), highlighted by Chris Johnson Jr., who gained 44 yards and scored on six attempts. The defense controlled the game, holding East Texas A&M to 107 rushing yards and forcing three turnovers. Standouts included Micah Owens (1 sack, 2.5 tackles for loss) and Cinque Williams (6 solo tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss).
Baylor vs. SMU Pick
Spread Pick for Baylor vs. SMU
- SMU -2.5 (4 units)
SMU wasn’t overly impressive in its opener against East Texas A&M, but the Mustangs didn’t need to be. Despite three turnovers, they still won by 29 points. It also felt like SMU kept things vanilla with Baylor looming on the schedule.
Baylor flashed plenty of offensive firepower against SEC foe Auburn, but the Bears now face a quick turnaround. With fresher legs and a more polished attack, SMU looks positioned to cover the short number at home.
Over/Under Pick for Baylor vs. SMU
- Total: OVER 63.5
Through just one game, Baylor has thrown the ball on 68.4% of its plays, the highest rate in the FBS. SMU, even as a 50.5-point favorite last week, found its biggest success through the air. That sets up a potential shootout between Kevin Jennings and Sawyer Robertson.
With both offenses built to push the tempo and create explosive plays, this matchup has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. Expect points to pile up into the upper 60s, making the over the play.
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