Baylor vs. Oklahoma State Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 27, 2025
Use Code WWWC Baylor Bears (2-2) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (1-2)
The Baylor Bears (2-2; 1-3 ATS; 2-2 O/U) head to Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, OK, on Saturday afternoon to square off against the Oklahoma State Cowboys (1-2; 0-3 ATS; 1-2 O/U) in the Big 12 Conference showdown, so we’ve prepared the Baylor vs. Oklahoma State prediction to get you covered.
Baylor meets Oklahoma State for the second straight season. Last year, the Bears beat the Cowboys 38-28 as 7-point home favorites, and the game went over the 64.5-point line. This time around, the Bears are huge 21.5-point road favorites with a total of 57.5 points.
The kick-off is set at 3:30 PM ET, so let’s take a closer look at this Baylor vs. Oklahoma State prediction, one of our NCAAF picks for Week 5 of the 2025 NCAAF season.
Baylor started league play with an L
The Baylor Bears are coming off a 27-24 home defeat to Arizona State in Week 4. Baylor lost the turnover battle 3-0, and Jesus Gomez walked off the Bears with a 43-yard field goal. The Bears kept the ball in possession for just 23:36 while rushing 23 times for 107 yards. On the other side, Arizona State had 48 carries for 179 yards.
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“I’m disappointed with the execution,” Baylor coach Dave Aranda said. “Whether it’s the turnovers on offense or the penalties on defense, the busted plays on big third downs. It’s just inopportune times shooting yourself in the foot. Can’t do that at home against a really good team.”
Senior QB Sawyer Robertson went 25-of-39 for 250 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception last week. Senior WR Michael Trigg had five receptions for 71 yards and two touchdowns, while sophomore RB Bryson Washington posted 17 carries for 111 yards.
Baylor leans on its passing offense, and Robertson has already thrown for 1,320 yards, 13 touchdowns, and three interceptions this season. Senior WR Josh Cameron has 21 catches for 309 yards and three touchdowns on his season tally, while Trigg has amassed 415 rushing yards and four touchdowns thus far.
The Bears started the season with a 38-24 home loss to Auburn, with Robertson throwing for 419 yards and three touchdowns. After that loss, Baylor strung together wins over SMU 48-45 in double overtime and Samford 42-7.
Oklahoma State fired Mike Gundy
The Oklahoma State Cowboys suffered a 19-12 home loss against Tulsa in Week 4. The Cowboys were listed as 10.5-point favorites, but their offense laid another egg. Back in Week 2, the Cowboys suffered an embarrassing 69-3 defeat at No. 6 Oregon. They were on a bye in Week 3.
The Cowboys racked up 403 total yards against Tulsa. However, they went just 4-for-15 on third down and kept the ball in possession for 25:15. The Cowboys rushed 33 times for 185 yards, but freshman QB Zane Flores completed just 25 of his 40 passing attempts for 214 yards. Flores carried the pigskin 10 times for 56 yards and a touchdown.
After that disappointing performance, the Cowboys decided to fire coach Mike Gundy, who spent more than two decades at the helm. Offensive coordinator Doug Meacham will serve as the team’s interim coach.
"This is a decision about what's best for our football program, our student-athletes, and Oklahoma State University, and it reflects our unwavering commitment to championship-level football and competing for national success," Oklahoma State President Jim Hess said in a statement released by the school. "Coach Gundy dedicated decades of his life to OSU, achieving significant success and positively impacting hundreds of young men who wore the OSU uniform. We are grateful for his service and wish him and his family the very best."
Doug Meacham will have a tall task to turn the corner with this Oklahoma State team. The Cowboys’ offense looks impotent, and their run defense is leaky. Oklahoma State allows 211.0 rushing yards per game (128th in the country) and 5.4 yards per carry (tied for 123rd).
Baylor vs. Oklahoma State Pick
Spread Pick for Baylor vs. Oklahoma State
- Oklahoma State +21.5 (5 units)
The Bears will beat the Cowboys, but covering a 21.5-point spread might be a tall order for Baylor. Here’s why – Oklahoma State will pound a rock and eat the clock. The Cowboys will look to take advantage of the Bears’ flaws, and Baylor allows 186.0 rushing yards per game (118th in the nation). Moreover, the Bears will have to lean on rushing, too, as the Cowboys’ passing defense is not that bad.
Hereof, I expect the Cowboys to hang around and eventually beat the number. They are 4-1 ATS in the last five outings as underdogs of 20 or more points. On the other side, the Bears are 1-3 ATS in their previous four showings as favorites of 20 or more points.
Over/Under Pick for Baylor vs. Oklahoma State
- Under 57.5 (5 units)
The Bears are a dangerous offensive team, but I don’t think they are good enough to humiliate the Cowboys like Oregon did in Week 2. The Ducks racked up a whopping 312 rushing yards on 37 carries against the Cowboys, and frankly, Baylor’s ground game is not at the same level as Oregon’s.
Anyway, the Bears will look to rush as much as possible. The Cowboys will do the same, so both teams will eat the clock a lot. That’s why I’m going with the under. The Cowboys will find a way to move the chains against the Bears, but converting in the red zone will be an issue for Oklahoma State. Zane Flores has yet to throw a touchdown in 2025.
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