Boise State Broncos vs. Air Force Falcons Picks and Predictions for Saturday, September 20, 2025

A pair of Mountain West programs collide on the gridiron in the Centennial State as the Boise State Broncos travel to take on the Air Force Falcons Saturday night and we have you covered with our Boise State vs. Air Force prediction. Boise State pulverized Eastern Washington 51-14 at home back on September 5, covering the line as a 33-point favorite, in their previous contest. Air Force fell 49-30 on the road to Utah State in their previous contest, losing outright as a four-point favorite, last Saturday. In the all-time series between the teams, the Broncos own an 8-4 advantage and have won the last two meetings, including a 27-19 home win in the most recent matchup on November 24, 2023. Read more about this Boise State vs. Air Force prediction! Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!

Broncos Looking to Earn Second Straight Win

Boise State comes in off a bye last week, giving them two weeks to prepare for this contest after trampling Eastern Washington in their previous game. The Broncos enter this game 1-1 on the season and they look to put this one in the win column. Against Eastern Washington, Boise State put the game away early as they jumped in front 20-0 after the opening quarter and cruised from there. The Broncos rolled up a 637-293 advantage in total offense, picked up 22 first downs while allowing 13 and forced the game’s two turnovers. Those numbers more than made up for the fact that they lost time of possession by a 31:36 to 28:24 margin in the contest.

The Broncos enter this game ranked 30th in the FBS in passing offense with 282.5 yards per game through the air, and they are 23rd in rushing offense with 225 yards per contest. Boise State is 72nd in scoring offense as they put up an average of 29 points per contest, while they are 81st in scoring defense by allowing 24 points per game. Maddux Madsen has completed 41 of 72 passes for 532 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions while adding 66 yards and a score on the ground this season. Max Cutforth is three of five passing for 33 yards as the backup QB. Dylan Riley leads the ground game with 13 carries for 143 yards and a score on the year. Sire Gaines (23 carries, 142 yards, TD) and Malik Sherrod (18 carries, 69 yards, TD) are also involved in the ground attack. Tight end Matt Lauter leads the team with eight receptions for 80 yards plus on the season. Latrell Caples (five receptions, 69 yards), Ben Ford (seven grabs, 126 yards, two TD) and Chris Marshall (six receptions, 151 yards, TD) are solid options in the passing game. Canaan Moore has hit all four extra point attempts and one of two field goal attempts with a long of 35 this season. Colton Boomer is three of four on extra points and missed his lone field goal attempt on the year.

Air Force Trying to Bounce Back After Road Loss

Air Force had defensive lapses on the road against Utah State last week and it cost them a loss so they look to regroup here. The Falcons dropped to 1-1 overall on the season and look to open up conference play on a positive note here. Against Utah State, Air Force was within 14-10 at the half before giving up a pair of scores in the opening six minutes of the third quarter to go down 28-10. The Falcons didn’t get closer than 11 the rest of the way en route to the loss. Air Force was edged 473-445 in total offense, held a 23-22 margin in first downs and controlled the clock by a 38:11 to 21:49 margin, yet lost by multiple scores. The Falcons were done in by turnovers as they committed three while failing to force a takeaway in the contest.

The Falcons enter this contest 112th in the nation in passing offense with an average of 169 yards per contest, which is no surprise given that they are a service academy. Air Force currently stands 9th in the nation in rushing offense as they put up an average of 266.5 yards per game on the ground. The Falcons are 34th of the 136 FBS teams to take the field this season in scoring offense as they average 39.5 points per game. Air Force is 113th in scoring defense as they allow an average of 31 points a contest. Josh Johnson is the starter under center and has completed nine of 16 passes for 224 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while adding 30 yards on the ground. Liam Szarka is eight of 16 for 114 yards and a pick while adding 47 yards plus three scores on the ground. Cade Harris is the leading ground gainer with 16 carries for 138 yards and two scores while Dylan Carlson chips in 18 carries for 104 yards and a score. Harris leads the team with five catches for 136 yards and a score. Quin Smith (three receptions, 85 yards, TD), Tre Roberson (four grabs, 80 yards) and Bruin Fleischmann (three catches, 19 yards) are the only other players with multiple receptions on the year. Jacob Medina is seven of seven on extra point attempts and one of two on field goal attempts with a long of 31 this season. Reagan Tubbs hit his lone extra point attempt and has not attempted a field goal this season.

Boise State vs. Air Force Pick

Spread Pick for Boise State vs. Air Force

• Boise State -10 (4 units)

Neither team has a win over an FBS opponent this season as Boise State lost at South Florida, while Air Force fell to Utah State. Air Force relies on the run game and that could be tough as Boise State allows only 117 yards per game and four yards per carry in the early going. Boise State averages 507.5 yards per game in total offense and 6.6 yards per play so far this season. Perhaps more importantly, the Broncos are capable of doing damage on the ground and through the air thanks to Maddux’s arm. Air Force may be at home but after seeing what Utah State did to the Falcons’ defense last week, look for Boise State to pile up points and pick up the road win here.

Over/Under Pick for Boise State vs. Air Force

• Over 51.5 (4 units)

Boise State comes into this game having split its two games in terms of the total this season. The Broncos combined for 41 points in their loss to South Florida against a number of 61.5 points in the opener. They followed that up with a combined 65 points against the number of 59.5 points in the win over Eastern Washington. Air Force has gone over the number in both their games this season as they combined for 62 points against a number of 54.5 in their win over Bucknell and 79 combined points against a number of 51.5 points in the loss to Utah State. Look for the Broncos to put up a bunch of points and that helps this game over the number.