Boise State Broncos vs San Diego State Aztecs Prediction and Picks - November 15, 2025
Use Code WWWC Mountain West Conference College football action on Saturday evening, and we have a Boise State vs San Diego State Prediction ready to rock and roll. The Broncos come in off a shocking 30-7 home loss to Fresno State to fall to 6-3 on the year. San Diego State is off an equally stunning 38-6 road loss to Hawaii, and they are now 7-2 on the year. Boise State won last year's meeting by a score of 56-24. Which team will bounce back from bad losses? Continue reading to see our Boise State vs San Diego State prediction.
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Broncos Shocked At Home By Fresno State
Boise State comes into this game at 6–3, but their last outing against Fresno State was a rough one, ending in a 30–7 defeat. The Broncos’ offense never found its footing, managing just 193 total yards and turning the ball over twice. Quarterback Max Cutforth struggled, completing only 14 of 29 passes for 106 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. The ground game wasn’t much better, as Malik Sherrod led the way with 67 yards on 10 carries, but the team as a whole averaged just over three yards per attempt. It was a performance that highlighted the inconsistency of Boise State’s offense, which has been capable of putting up points but has also gone flat against stronger defenses.
Despite that setback, the Broncos have shown balance throughout the season, averaging 428 yards per game with a solid mix of run and pass. Maddux Madsen has been the more productive quarterback overall, throwing for nearly 2,000 yards and 15 touchdowns, while Dylan Riley has provided steady production in the backfield with 745 rushing yards and seven scores. Chris Marshall has been a reliable target in the passing game, giving Boise State a weapon on the outside. When the offense is clicking, the Broncos can be tough to stop, but the key will be avoiding the kind of turnovers and stalled drives that plagued them against Fresno State.
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Defensively, Boise State has been respectable, allowing 326 yards per game and ranking among the top 40 nationally. Their secondary has been a strength, giving up just 168 passing yards per contest, but the run defense has been more vulnerable, surrendering 158 yards per game. That imbalance could be tested against San Diego State’s ground-heavy attack. The Broncos have also struggled in the red zone, allowing opponents to score on over 90% of trips, which has been a major issue in close games. If Boise State wants to pull off a road win, the defense will need to tighten up inside the 20 and force the Aztecs into uncomfortable passing situations.
Aztecs Were Crushed On The Islands
San Diego State enters at 7–2, but their last game was a disaster, a 38–6 loss to Hawaii that exposed several flaws. Quarterback Jayden Denegal had a rough night, completing just 10 of 27 passes for 132 yards with two interceptions and no touchdowns. The offense never found rhythm, and while Lucky Sutton ran for 78 yards on 18 carries, the Aztecs couldn’t sustain drives or finish possessions. Donovan Brown provided a spark with 60 receiving yards, but overall the passing game was inefficient and the team looked out of sync. That kind of performance is rare for San Diego State, but it raises questions about how quickly they can regroup.
Offensively, the Aztecs have leaned on their rushing attack all season, averaging nearly 180 yards per game on the ground. Sutton has been the workhorse, closing in on 900 rushing yards with eight touchdowns, while Jordan Napier has been the most reliable receiver with 634 yards on 47 catches. Denegal has shown flashes but has been inconsistent, throwing eight touchdowns against seven interceptions. San Diego State’s formula has been clear: control the clock, lean on the run game, and avoid putting too much pressure on the passing attack. Against Boise State’s defense, which has been stronger against the pass than the run, Sutton’s ability to churn out yards will be critical.
Defensively, San Diego State has been one of the best units in the country, allowing just 262 yards per game and ranking top 10 nationally against both the run and the pass. They’ve given up only 13 points per game, making them one of the stingiest defenses in college football. The Aztecs thrive on discipline, limiting big plays and forcing opponents into long drives that often stall. Their red-zone defense has been excellent, and they’ll look to rebound after the Hawaii loss by reasserting their dominance at home. If the defense plays to its usual standard and the offense finds enough rhythm on the ground, San Diego State has every reason to believe it can bounce back and protect its home field.
Boise State vs San Diego State Pick
Boise State vs San Diego State Spread Pick
- San Diego State -3 (2 Units)
San Diego State -3 feels like the right side because the Aztecs’ defense has been one of the most reliable units in the country, allowing just 13 points per game and ranking top 10 nationally in both run and pass defense. Even though they were humbled by Hawaii last week, that game looks more like an outlier than a trend. Their ability to control the line of scrimmage and force opponents into long, grinding possessions matches up well against a Boise State offense that has been inconsistent and turnover-prone. With Lucky Sutton anchoring the ground game and Jayden Denegal capable of bouncing back with a cleaner performance, San Diego State has the tools to dictate tempo and cover the short number at home.
On top of that, Boise State’s struggles in the red zone and their inability to sustain drives against stronger defenses make them vulnerable in this spot. The Broncos were held to just seven points against Fresno State, and now they face an Aztecs defense that thrives on discipline and limiting big plays. San Diego State’s formula is simple but effective: run the ball, control possession, and let their defense suffocate opponents. Playing at home after a wake-up call loss, the Aztecs should be motivated to reassert themselves, and laying three points looks justified given their defensive edge and Boise State’s offensive inconsistency.
Boise State vs San Diego State Over/Under Pick
- Under 41.5 (2 Units)
The Under 41.5 makes sense here because both Boise State and San Diego State lean on their defenses and slower-paced styles to dictate games. The Broncos have been inconsistent offensively, especially in the red zone, while the Aztecs thrive on grinding possessions through their run game and limiting opponents with one of the stingiest defenses in the country. With San Diego State allowing just 13 points per game and Boise State’s secondary capable of keeping Denegal in check, this matchup projects as a battle of field position rather than fireworks, keeping the total under the number.
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