Boise State vs. Nevada Picks and Prediction for Friday, October 24, 2025
Use Code WWWC Boise State Broncos (5-2) vs. Nevada Wolf Pack (1-6)
Week 9 of the 2025 college football season has arrived, bringing the Mountain West Conference showdown from Mackay Stadium in Reno, NV, on Friday night, so we have prepared the Boise State vs. Nevada prediction to get you covered.
Boise State aims for its third straight victory over Nevada, and the Broncos are undefeated in four straight trips to Mackay Stadium. Last season, the Broncos outlasted the Wolf Pack 28-21 as 23.5-point home favorites, and the game went under the 61.5-point line.
The Broncos are 21.5-point road favorites with a total of 50.5 points this time around. The kick-off at Mackay Stadium is set at 10:00 PM ET, so let’s take a closer look at this Boise State vs. Nevada prediction, one of our NCAAF picks for Week 9.
Boise State aims for its third straight victory
The Boise State Broncos (5-2; 6-1 ATS; 5-2 O/U) have laid the egg twice this season. The Broncos started their campaign with a 34-7 loss at South Florida and suffered a 28-7 defeat at then-No. 21 Notre Dame in Week 6.
Get Free $30 Credit for Premium Picks + Exclusive Discounts
Subscribe Now
In between those two losses, the Broncos mustered three straight wins over Eastern Washington 51-14, Air Force 49-37, and App State 47-14. Since a loss against Notre Dame, the Broncos have beaten New Mexico 41-25 and UNLV 56-31.
As you can notice, the Broncos’ offense has done a good job thus far. Boise State scores 36.9 points per game (tied for 20th in the nation) on 205.6 rushing yards (25th) and 273.0 passing yards (29th). The Broncos allow 26.1 points in return (83rd) on 160.1 rushing yards (93rd) and 189.7 passing yards (tied for 33rd).
Last week, the Broncos advanced to 3-0 in conference play. They outgained UNLV 558-476 in total yards while scoring 28 straight points in the second half. Junior QB Maddux Madsen threw for 253 yards, four touchdowns, and an interception, while sophomore RB Dylan Riley posted 15 carries for a staggering 201 yards and a touchdown.
“We continue to battle, we continue to grow,” Broncos head coach Spencer Danielson said. “People can say what they want, but we’re working, we’re getting better. We’ve still got a long way to go, and I’m proud of our guys for coming out, and they played well tonight. You can see in all three phases, this team is getting better, and it’s a team that cares about each other.”
Madsen is having a nice season behind a solid offensive line. He’s thrown for 1,823 yards, 15 touchdowns, and six interceptions, while Riley has rushed for 695 yards and six touchdowns. Wideouts Ben Ford, Chris Marshall, and Latrell Caples have combined for 65 catches, 1,064 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns.
Nevada is free-falling
The Nevada Wolf Pack (1-6; 3-4 ATS; 2-5 O/U) suffered a 46-11 defeat at then-No. 2 Penn State in their season opener. In Week 2, Nevada outlasted Sacramento State 20-17 as a 9.5-point home fave. Since then, the Wolf Pack have dropped five consecutive games, including three in league play against Fresno State 20-17, San Diego State 44-10, and New Mexico 24-22.
Last week, the Wolf Pack suffered a tough loss at University Stadium in Albuquerque, NM. They were chasing the Lobos all night but couldn’t catch them. Nevada won the turnover battle 2-0 and covered a 14.5-point spread with ease. However, it was another defeat for Jeff Choate’s boys, who racked up just 257 total yards.
The Wolf Pack posted just 55 yards on 28 carries in Week 8. Freshman QB Carter Jones tossed for 202 yards, completing 23 of his 29 passing attempts, while senior RB Caleb Ramseur had 14 carries for 39 yards and two touchdowns.
Nevada’s offense has been awful this season, tallying 15.6 points per game (133rd in the nation) on 143.0 rushing yards (tied for 86th) and 159.0 passing yards (125th). The Wolf Pack allow 28.0 points in return (97th) on 156.7 rushing yards (89th) and 217.7 passing yards (64th).
Senior QB Chubba Purdy was benched in Week 6, and Carter Jones earned the starting job. Jones has thrown for 517 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions across two starts and three relief appearances. Caleb Ramseur leads the backfield with 70 totes for 310 yards and two touchdowns. He also has seven catches for 61 yards and a TD.
Boise State vs. Nevada Pick
Spread Pick for Boise State vs. Nevada
- Boise State -21.5 (5 units)
I don’t feel comfortable with this huge spread, but there’s no way I’m going to back the Wolf Pack to keep it close against the Broncos. Nevada’s offense has improved with Carter Jones under center, but the Wolf Pack’s defense won’t be able to contain Boise State’s dynamic offense.
The Broncos might miss WR Ben Ford, who’s questionable with an undisclosed injury. They have enough weapons to hurt the Wolf Pack both through the air and on the ground, even if Ford sits out, so I’m backing Boise State to cover.
Boise State has beaten the number in six straight outings and is 6-3-1 ATS in its last 10 showings as a favorite of 21 or more points. On the other side, Nevada is 0-5 ATS in its past five home games.
Over/Under Pick for Boise State vs. Nevada
- Over 50.5 (5 units)
Nevada has a couple of solid defensive playmakers in DL Dylan Labarbera and LB Jonathan Maldonado, who have combined for 9.5 sacks and 21.5 tackles for loss so far this season. However, the rest of Nevada’s defensive unit is weak, and the Broncos’ offensive line has been excellent thus far.
The Broncos are not a great defensive team, and the Wolf Pack will find a way to put some points on the scoreboard, enough to push the total over the line. The under is 5-1 in Nevada’s last six games overall, but the over has hit in five of Boise State’s previous six.
Betting on College Football?
- Bet with other College Football fans at the best sportsbooks
- Sign up today and get started with the latest college football sportsbook promos
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
