Boise State vs Notre Dame Prediction and Picks - October 4th, 2025
Use Code WWWC Saturday afternoon on the College gridiron, and we have a Boise State vs Notre Dame Prediction locked and loaded for you. The Broncos enter this contest off a 47-14 home win over Appalachian State to move to 3-1 on the year. After a 0-2 start, the Irish have won 2 in a row, including last week's 56-13 destruction of Arkansas on the road. Which team will keep their winning streaks alive? Continue reading to see our Boise State vs Notre Dame prediction.
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Broncos Crush Appalachian State
Boise State rolls into South Bend riding a three-game win streak and averaging 49 points per game over that stretch. Quarterback Maddux Madsen has been sharp, throwing for 1,129 yards and nine touchdowns with just one interception while completing over 60% of his passes. The Broncos rank 9th nationally in total offense (520.0 YPG), with a balanced attack that includes 299.0 passing yards (20th) and 221.0 rushing yards per game (also 20th). Dylan Riley leads the ground game with 360 yards and five touchdowns, while LaTrell Caples has emerged as a reliable deep threat, averaging 16.0 yards per catch and scoring twice last week against Appalachian State.
Offensively, Boise State has been efficient and explosive, converting 50% of third downs and scoring on 100% of red zone trips—though that perfect red zone rate is more a reflection of limited defensive resistance than elite execution. The Broncos have committed just three turnovers and rank top-30 in yards per play (7.1), but they’ve also racked up 68.5 penalty yards per game, which ranks 109th nationally. That lack of discipline could be costly against a Notre Dame team that’s methodical and punishing in situational football. Boise State’s offensive line has held up well, but they haven’t faced a front seven with Notre Dame’s speed and depth.
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Defensively, Boise State has been solid but not spectacular. They allow 341.5 total yards per game (58th nationally), with respectable numbers against the pass (186.0 YPG, 43rd) but vulnerability against the run (155.5 YPG, 84th). The Broncos have allowed 24.8 points per game and rank 121st in red zone defense, giving up scores on every opponent trip inside the 20. That’s a dangerous flaw against a Notre Dame offense that has scored 13 touchdowns on its last 14 possessions. If Boise State can’t force field goals or create turnovers, they’ll be chasing points all afternoon.
The Notre Dame Offense Is On Fire
Notre Dame returns home after a 56–13 demolition of Arkansas, where CJ Carr threw for 354 yards and four touchdowns on 73.3% passing. Carr has been exceptional all season, posting 1,091 yards, nine touchdowns, and just two interceptions while averaging 10.5 yards per attempt. The Irish rank 11th nationally in scoring offense (44.0 PPG) and 16th in total offense (479.8 YPG), with a passing attack that’s top-5 in efficiency and a run game that’s quietly gaining steam. Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price have combined for over 800 scrimmage yards and 13 touchdowns, giving Notre Dame one of the most dynamic backfields in the country.
The Irish have converted 52.3% of third downs and scored on 94.1% of red zone trips, ranking top-35 in both categories. They’ve committed just four turnovers and average only 33.3 penalty yards per game—13th nationally—making them one of the cleanest and most consistent teams in terms of execution. Malachi Fields leads the receiving corps with 275 yards, while Jordan Faison and Price have added explosive plays in the screen and seam game. Notre Dame’s offensive line has dominated in short-yardage situations, and Carr’s pocket awareness has kept the sack count low. Against a Boise State defense that’s struggled in the red zone and allowed 6.8 yards per pass, the Irish should be able to sustain drives and finish with points.
Defensively, Notre Dame remains a work in progress. They allow 389.0 total yards per game (95th nationally), including 268.8 passing yards (121st), and have given up 27.8 points per contest. The secondary has been vulnerable to deep shots, and the Irish have struggled to generate consistent pressure without blitzing. However, they’ve shown improvement in run defense—just 120.3 YPG allowed—and have tightened up in the second half of games. With Boise State’s offense built around tempo and chunk plays, Notre Dame’s ability to control pace and win early downs will be critical. If they can force Madsen into third-and-long situations, the Irish have the edge in both talent and depth.
Boise State vs Notre Dame Pick
Boise State vs Notre Dame Spread Pick
- Notre Dame -20.5 (5 Units)
Notre Dame -20.5 is more than justified given the matchup and the Irish’s current trajectory. They’ve already posted 56-point outings against both Purdue and Arkansas, and Boise State’s defense—particularly in the red zone—has been a liability. The Broncos have allowed scores on every opponent trip inside the 20 and rank outside the top 80 in run defense, which sets up perfectly for Notre Dame’s power run game and short-yardage dominance. CJ Carr is operating with playoff-level precision, and the Irish have shown they’re not just winning—they’re winning with margin. With the committee watching and style points mattering, this is a spot where Notre Dame has every reason to keep the foot down.
Boise State’s offense has been productive, but they haven’t faced a defense with Notre Dame’s speed, depth, and ability to adjust mid-game. The Irish have tightened up in second halves and have the personnel to contain Maddux Madsen’s mobility and limit chunk plays. Notre Dame’s execution edge—just 33.3 penalty yards per game and top-15 red zone conversion—means fewer self-inflicted wounds and more sustained pressure. At home, with playoff optics in play and a clear mismatch in the trenches, Notre Dame has the tools and the motivation to cover this number comfortably.
Boise State vs Notre Dame Over/Under Pick
- Over 62.5 (5 Units)
Over 62.5 is in play with two offenses built for chunk plays and red zone efficiency. Notre Dame has scored 56 points in back-to-back games and ranks top-15 nationally in yards per play, while Boise State averages 49.0 points over its last three and brings a balanced attack that can challenge Notre Dame’s secondary. Both teams convert over 50% of third downs and have quarterbacks capable of pushing tempo. With Boise State’s red zone defense ranking 121st and Notre Dame’s motivation to run up scores for playoff optics, this matchup has all the ingredients for a high-scoring shootout.
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