Boise State vs. San Diego State Picks and Prediction for Saturday, November 15, 2025
Use Code WWWC Boise State Broncos (6-3) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (7-2)
Week 12 of the 2025 college football season brings a ton of interesting games on Saturday, November 15, including the highly anticipated Mountain West Conference showdown from Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego, CA, so we’ve prepared the Boise State vs. San Diego State prediction to get you covered.
The Broncos eye their fourth straight victory over the Aztecs. Last season, Boise State routed San Diego State 56-24 as a 24.5-point home fave. The Aztecs are 2.5-point home favorites this time around because the Broncos miss their starting quarterback, Maddux Madsen.
Let’s take a closer look at this Boise State vs. San Diego State prediction, one of our NCAAF picks for Week 12. The stake is huge in this game, and the kick-off is set at 10:30 PM ET.
Boise State laid an egg last time out
The Boise State Broncos (6-3; 6-2-1 ATS; 5-4 O/U) are coming off a bye. Back in Week 10, the Broncos put an end to their three-game winning streak. After beating New Mexico 41-25, UNLV 56-31, and Nevada 24-3, the Broncos lost to Fresno State 30-7, falling to 4-1 in conference play.
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Junior QB Maddux Madsen suffered a leg injury in the first quarter of the Fresno State game. With sophomore Max Cutforth under center, the Broncos struggled mightily, finishing the game with 193 total yards and three turnovers.
Cutforth completed just 14 of his 29 passing attempts, tossing for 106 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions. He also lost a fumble. Senior RB Malik Sherrod rushed 10 times for 67 yards, while senior WR Chase Penry had five receptions for 44 yards and a TD.
“We got our tails kicked today on The Blue at home, and that’s unacceptable,” Boise State coach Spencer Danielson said. “It’s all three phases. It’s not because one of our players goes down or two of our players go down. All three phases did not execute the way they needed to tonight to win a football game against a good team.”
The Broncos score 32.1 points per game (47th in the nation) on 184.9 rushing yards (37th) and 243.1 passing yards (55th). Maddux has thrown for 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while running backs Dylan Riley, Sire Gaines, and Malik Sherrod have combined for 1,844 yards from scrimmage and 17 touchdowns.
Senior WR Ben Ford is done for the season with a lower-body injury, which is a huge blow for Boise State. Ford has amassed 325 receiving yards and five touchdowns across seven games this season.
San Diego State is coming off a heavy loss
The San Diego State Aztecs (7-2; 7-2 ATS; 3-6 O/U) put an end to their six-game winning streak this past Saturday. They suffered a heavy 38-6 defeat at Hawaii, playing as 6.5-point road favorites. Now, the Aztecs are 4-1 in conference play and tied with Boise State for the top spot.
The Aztecs completely fell apart in Honolulu. They racked up just 267 total yards and lost the turnover battle 4-1. SDSU went 2-for-14 on 3rd down and 0-for-2 on 4th down while allowing 130 yards on the ground and 256 through the air.
Junior signal-caller Jayden Denegal was awful in Week 11. He completed just 10 of his 27 passing attempts, throwing for 132 yards and two interceptions, including a pick-six. Junior RB Lucky Sutton posted 18 carries for 78 yards, and junior WR Donovan Brown had three catches for 60 yards.
“Obviously, a disappointing night. We still have a great team that didn't perform great tonight. Did a poor job leading them. It's all on me,” SDSU coach Sean Lewis said. “This is how you chase your best. We got punched in the mouth, and we got to respond. And part of that response is how we learn, how we grow.”
The Aztecs score 26.3 points per game (77th in the nation) on 180.0 rushing yards (43rd) and 176.0 passing yards (116th). Denegal has thrown for eight touchdowns and seven interceptions, while Sutton has recorded 898 rushing yards and eight touchdowns.
SDSU leans on its defense. The Aztecs allow just 13.1 points per game (4th) on 93.1 rushing yards (10th) and 168.7 passing yards (13th).
Boise State vs. San Diego State Pick
Spread Pick for Boise State vs. San Diego State
- San Diego State -2.5 (5 units)
The Aztecs can only play better than they did against Hawaii, right? The Broncos miss Maddux Madsen dearly, and I don’t know what to expect from Max Cutforth in his first start under center. Cutforth had two weeks to prepare for the Aztecs, but he was awful in relief two weeks ago.
I expect the Aztecs’ defense to bounce back from that ugly display against Hawaii. SDSU should be able to slow down the Broncos’ ground game. On the other side, Boise State’s run defense has struggled all season. The Broncos gave up 189 rushing yards to Fresno State, and I expect the Aztecs to pound the rock in this matchup.
We’ll see a tight battle at Snapdragon Stadium, and I will lean on SDSU’s defense to make a difference. The Aztecs have only allowed 31 points across four outings at home this season.
Over/Under Pick for Boise State vs. San Diego State
- Under 41.5 (5 units)
Betting on the under looks like a way to go in this game. We will see a great battle in the trenches, and I expect both teams to rush a lot and eat the clock.
The Broncos’ passing defense is good, so the Aztecs don’t want to lean on Jayden Denegal’s arm. SDSU will rely on Lucky Sutton a lot, looking to take advantage of Boise State’s shortcomings.
On the other side, the Broncos might take a conservative approach, given Max Cutforth’s inexperience. But they will have a mountain to climb against the Aztecs’ run D. San Diego State allows just 2.8 yards per carry.
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