Boise State vs. Utah State Picks and Prediction for Friday, November 28, 2025
Boise State Broncos (7-4) vs. Utah State Aggies (6-5)
Week 14 of the 2025 college football season has arrived, and in this preview, we are breaking down Friday’s Mountain West Conference clash from Maverik Stadium in Logan, UT, to get you the Boise State vs. Utah State prediction.
The Broncos aim for their 10th straight victory over the Aggies. Last season, Boise State routed Utah State 62-30 as a 28-point home fave. The Broncos are 3.5-point road favorites this time around, while the total sits at 55.5 points.
The kick-off at Maverik Stadium is set at 4:00 PM ET, so let’s take a closer look at this Boise State vs. Utah State prediction, one of our NCAAF picks for Week 14.
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Boise State rolled over Colorado State in Week 13
The Boise State Broncos (7-4; 7-3-1 ATS; 6-5 O/U) snapped their two-game skid last Saturday. After consecutive defeats against Fresno State 30-7 at home and San Diego State 17-7 on the road, the Broncos cruised past Colorado State 49-21.
Junior QB Maddux Madsen suffered a lower-leg injury against Fresno State, and the Broncos’ offense fell apart immediately. Boise State racked up just 193 total yards against the Bulldogs and 268 total yards against the Aztecs. According to the Broncos' head coach Spencer Danielson, Maddux is a long shot to play in Friday’s regular-season finale at Utah State.
“He’s doing a great job in the training room, he’s getting much closer,” Danielson said. “But I still think it’s going to be tough for him to be able to play this weekend.”
Sophomore QB Max Cutforth replaced Madsen under center. Cutforth has thrown for 449 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions over the last three games. Last week, he tossed for 239 yards against Colorado State, while the Broncos’ ground game exploded for 279 yards and six touchdowns.
Boise State outgained CSU 533-332 in total yards and won the turnover battle 4-1. Freshman RB Sire Gaines posted 22 carries for 149 yards and two touchdowns, while senior RB Malik Sherrod carried the pigskin seven times for 56 yards and a couple of scores.
The Broncos score 31.4 points per game (44th in the nation) on 191.5 rushing yards (28th) and 231.5 passing yards (64th). They surrender 23.1 points in return (58th) on 157.0 rushing yards (85th) and 165.5 passing yards (11th).
Junior wideout Chris Marshall will return from his three-game absence on Friday. That’s a huge boost for the Broncos, as Marshall has amassed 24 receptions, 467 yards, and two touchdowns across eight appearances this season.
Utah State is coming off a huge win
The Utah State Aggies (6-5; 9-2 ATS; 5-6 O/U) have won three of their previous five games overall, alternating wins and losses in the process. Last Saturday, the Aggies outlasted Fresno State 28-17 on the road to become bowl eligible.
After a heartbreaking 29-26 double-overtime defeat at UNLV in Week 12, the Aggies outgained the Bulldogs 403-365 in total yards while posting 15 more 1st downs than Fresno State (27-12). Utah State lost the turnover battle 2-1, but the Aggies’ defensive unit put on its best performance in 2025.
Senior QB Bryson Barnes went 16-of-30 for 150 yards and an interception while posting 23 carries for 113 yards. Sophomore QB Anthony Garcia was 2-for-2, throwing for 26 yards and two touchdowns, while junior RB Javen Jacobs rushed eight times for 68 yards and a couple of scores.
Barnes caught one of Garcia’s touchdown passes last Saturday. He’s been outstanding this season, throwing for 2,503 yards, 18 touchdowns, and just four interceptions. Barnes has amassed 644 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns while catching two passes for seven yards and a TD.
The Aggies score 32.5 points per 100 possessions (tied for 36th in the nation) on 166.5 rushing yards (62nd) and 257.5 passing yards (tied for 38th). Wideouts Braden Pegan and Brady Boyd have combined for 98 receptions, 1,528 receiving yards, and 13 touchdowns this season.
On the other side of the ball, the Aggies allow 28.5 points per game (tied for 94th) on 175.5 rushing yards (106th) and 241.0 passing yards (103rd). They’ve mustered 25 sacks thus far (tied for 43rd), and senior linebacker John Miller leads the way with 7.5 sacks and 94 tackles, including 9.5 for loss.
Boise State vs. Utah State Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
| 4 |  David Hess | +1,745.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
Spread Pick for Boise State vs. Utah State
- Boise State -3.5 (5 units)
The Broncos dearly miss Maddux Madsen. But even with Max Cutforth under center, the Broncos should have enough weapons to beat the Aggies. Boise State’s defense could easily make a difference, while the Broncos’ ground game should torture the Aggies. Utah State just gave up 178 yards on 27 carries at Fresno State in what was arguably the Aggies’ best defensive performance of the season.
Boise State will clinch the spot in the MWC championship game with a win over Utah State. The Aggies are undefeated at home this season, but they are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four home encounters with Boise State.
Over/Under Pick for Boise State vs. Utah State
- Under 55.5 (5 units)
The Broncos will pound the rock and eat the clock. They know how dangerous the Aggies’ offense is, and the Broncos will look to keep Bryson Barnes on the sidelines for as much as possible. The Aggies’ run defense has serious flaws, while the Broncos have three top-notch running backs and a strong offensive line.
Boise State’s run D is not elite, but the Broncos’ passing defense is one of the best in the country. The Aggies’ offense will lean on rushing, too, and continue to use Barnes’ legs. Hereof, I’ll take the under, though the total looks like a tricky wager. The under is 4-1 in Utah State’s last five games overall and 5-1 in Boise State’s last six showings on the road.
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