Boise State vs. Washington Prediction and Picks - December 13, 2025
It's the LA Bowl on Saturday evening, and we have a Boise State vs Washington prediction locked and loaded for you. Boise State enters this game off a 38-21 win over UNLV in the MWC Title game to move to 9-4 on the year. Washington is off a 26-14 home loss to Oregon, which dropped them to 8-4 on the year. These teams last met back in 2023, and Washington won that game by a score of 56-19. Can Boise State get revenge for that loss? Read on to see our Boise State vs Washington prediction.
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Boise State Wins the MWC Title
Boise State’s most recent game was a 38–21 win over UNLV in the Mountain West Championship on December 5, where quarterback Maddux Madsen returned from injury and threw for 289 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for a score. Dylan Riley added 75 yards on the ground, and Chase Penry hauled in three catches for 96 yards. The Broncos jumped out to a 21-point lead early and never looked back, securing their third straight conference title.
The Broncos’ offense has been balanced this season, averaging 432.7 total yards (40th nationally) with 244.3 passing yards (64th) and 188.4 rushing yards (38th). Madsen has been steady when healthy, throwing for 2,283 yards and 18 touchdowns, while Riley leads the ground game with 1,091 yards and 10 scores. Sire Gaines adds another 795 rushing yards, giving Boise State a two-headed attack. In the passing game, Latrell Caples and Cole Marshall have been reliable targets, combining for over 1,000 yards. The Broncos score 31.4 points per game (50th), and when Madsen is under center, the offense looks far more dynamic.
Defensively, Boise State has been strong against the pass, allowing just 171.5 yards per game (11th nationally), though they’ve been more vulnerable against the run (164.0 yards allowed, 78th). Overall, they give up 335.5 total yards (30th) and 23 points per game (47th), with 14 takeaways on the season. Ty Benefield leads the defense with 98 tackles, while Marco Notarainni and Jayden Virgin have been disruptive up front. The Broncos’ ability to slow Washington’s balanced offense will be key, especially in limiting explosive plays from Demond Williams Jr.
Offense Sputters vs Tough Oregon Defense
Washington’s most recent game was a 26–14 loss to Oregon on November 29, where quarterback Demond Williams Jr. threw for 129 yards and two touchdowns but also tossed two interceptions. Running back Adam Mohammed was a bright spot, rushing for 105 yards on 14 carries, while Dezmen Roebuck added 27 receiving yards. The Huskies struggled to finish drives against Oregon’s defense, and the loss dropped them to 8–4 heading into the LA Bowl.
Offensively, Washington has been efficient, averaging 414.5 total yards (55th nationally) with 245.8 passing yards (62nd) and 168.7 rushing yards (66th). Williams has been the centerpiece, throwing for 2,850 yards and 21 touchdowns while rushing for 595 yards and six more scores. Jonah Coleman has been their top back with 673 yards and 14 touchdowns, while Mohammed has chipped in 517 yards. Denzel Boston leads the receiving corps with 755 yards and 10 touchdowns, and tight end Decker DeGraaf adds another 353 yards. The Huskies score 33.8 points per game (28th), and when Williams is sharp, they can move the ball on anyone.
Defensively, Washington has been one of the better units in the Big Ten, allowing just 311.3 total yards (17th nationally) and 19.4 points per game (20th). They’ve been especially stout against the run, giving up only 103.5 yards per game (13th), though their pass defense has been more average at 207.8 yards allowed (40th). Safety Alex McLaughlin leads the team with 90 tackles, while Jacob Lane has 3.5 sacks off the edge. The Huskies don’t force many turnovers (9 takeaways, 75th), but their ability to control the line of scrimmage has kept them competitive against top teams. Against Boise State, their defensive front will be tested by Riley and Gaines, and slowing the Broncos’ rushing attack will be critical.
Boise State vs Washington Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,494.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +1,859.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +1,788.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,428.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,400.00 |
Boise State vs Washington Spread Pick
- Boise State +9.5 (4 Units)
Boise State looks like a live underdog in the LA Bowl, especially catching +9.5 against Washington. Their most recent outing was a 38–21 win over UNLV in the Mountain West Championship on December 5, where Maddux Madsen threw for 289 yards and three touchdowns while Dylan Riley rushed for 75 yards and a score. The Broncos have shown balance offensively all season, averaging 432.7 total yards (40th nationally) with a strong ground game led by Riley (1,091 yards, 10 TDs) and Sire Gaines (795 yards, 8 TDs). With Madsen healthy again, the passing attack adds another dimension, and Boise State’s ability to control tempo with the run game makes them well-suited to keep this matchup tight.
Washington, meanwhile, is coming off a 26–14 loss to Oregon on November 29, where Demond Williams Jr. threw for 129 yards and two touchdowns but also tossed two interceptions. The Huskies have been efficient offensively, averaging 33.8 points per game (28th), but their defense has been more bend‑don’t‑break, allowing 311.3 yards per game (17th) while forcing just nine takeaways all season. Boise State’s defense, on the other hand, has been excellent against the pass (171.5 yards allowed, 11th nationally), which matches up well against Washington’s aerial attack. With the Broncos’ ability to grind out drives and limit explosive plays, taking +9.5 feels like the sharper side, as this game sets up to be closer than the line suggests.
Boise State vs Washington Over/Under Pick
- Under 53 (5 Units)
The Under 53 looks like a solid angle in the LA Bowl between Boise State and Washington. Boise State’s most recent outing was a 38–21 win over UNLV in the Mountain West Championship on December 5, where Maddux Madsen threw for three touchdowns but the Broncos leaned heavily on their ground game to control tempo. Washington, meanwhile, is coming off a 26–14 loss to Oregon on November 29, where Demond Williams Jr. tossed two touchdowns but also two interceptions, and the Huskies struggled to finish drives. Both defenses are capable of tightening up — Boise ranks 11th nationally against the pass (171.5 yards allowed) while Washington is 13th against the run (103.5 yards allowed) — and with each team preferring long, methodical possessions, this matchup sets up for a slower pace that favors the Under 53.
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