Buffalo vs Penn State Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 19, 2026

The Buffalo Bulls visit the 14th-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions on Saturday at Beaver Stadium in University Park, with the opening kickoff at 12:00 PM ET and the game televised on BTN. The Bulls are 1-1 and 0-0 in MAC play after a 33-20 road loss to FIU. The Nittany Lions are 2-0 and 0-0 in Big Ten play after defeating Temple 27-9. Buffalo opened the season with a 21-17 victory over Albany, while Penn State has outscored its first two opponents 72-9. Get ready for Saturday’s matchup with our free NCAAF picks. 

Buffalo Trying to Respond After Its First Loss

Buffalo opened the season with a 21-17 win over Albany before falling 33-20 at FIU. The Bulls have thrown for 438 yards, with Elijah Holmes completing 35 of 61 passes for 253 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Jason Wright has added 185 passing yards and two touchdowns. Buffalo has rushed for 204 yards on 58 attempts, with Messiah Burch leading the group at 90 yards on 18 carries. Terrance Shelton Jr. has 80 yards on 23 attempts.

Chance Morrow has been Buffalo’s biggest threat through the air, catching 18 passes for 221 yards and five touchdowns. No other Bulls receiver has more than 46 yards. Defensively, Buffalo has recorded three sacks and one interception. Ronnell Davis leads the team with 17 tackles, while SaVeon Brown has 16 tackles and the interception. Stevie Bracey has 16 tackles, one sack and a forced fumble. Buffalo will need more defensive stops after allowing 33 points in its first road game.

Injuries: N. Leonard, B. Mays, Jasaiah Gathings and T. Richards are questionable with undisclosed injuries.

Penn State Producing Strong Results on Both Sides

Penn State opened with a 45-0 home victory over Marshall before winning 27-9 at Temple. Rocco Becht has completed 34 of 45 passes for 539 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions. His 75.6 completion percentage and 12.0 yards per attempt have helped Penn State create big plays through the air. Carson Hansen leads the rushing attack with 132 yards on 30 carries, while James Peoples has rushed for 73 yards on 15 attempts. The Nittany Lions have 311 rushing yards as a team.

Koby Howard has nine catches for 229 yards and a touchdown, averaging 25.4 yards per reception. Benjamin Brahmer has caught six passes for 87 yards and three touchdowns, while Chase Sowell has seven receptions for 91 yards and a score. Penn State’s defense has allowed nine points across two games and has three sacks and two interceptions. Tony Rojas leads the unit with 14 tackles, one sack and one interception. Cael Brezina has added 12 tackles, while Zion Tracy has 11.

Injuries: B. Kortovich, C. Alexander and D. Sheffey are questionable with undisclosed injuries. G. Burkle is questionable with a knee injury. M. Granville is out with an undisclosed injury.

Buffalo vs Penn State Key to the Game

Buffalo’s secondary has to limit Penn State’s passing game to keep the spread within reach. Becht has seven touchdown passes without an interception and is averaging 12.0 yards per attempt. Howard already has 229 receiving yards with a long reception of 56 yards, while Brahmer has three touchdowns. Buffalo has allowed enough production to lose by 13 at FIU, and the Bulls have only three sacks. Creating pressure before Penn State’s receivers get downfield is Buffalo’s best way to stay competitive.

Buffalo vs Penn State Game Pick

• Penn State -38.5

Penn State is the pick at -38.5 after outscoring Marshall and Temple 72-9. Becht has completed 75.6% of his passes with seven touchdowns and no interceptions, and Buffalo has already allowed 33 points in a road loss to FIU. The Nittany Lions have multiple receiving threats and have surrendered only nine points this season. Buffalo’s offense has scored 41 points across two games, and its rushing attack is averaging only 3.5 yards per attempt. Penn State has enough scoring power to cover the large number.

Buffalo vs Penn State Over/Under Pick

• Under 47.5

Under 47.5 is the pick with Penn State allowing only nine points through its first two games and Buffalo facing a major jump in its opponent’s defensive ability. The Bulls scored 21 against Albany and 20 against FIU, but Penn State has already posted one shutout and held Temple to nine points. Buffalo’s rushing attack has produced 204 yards at 3.5 per attempt, making long drives harder to sustain. Penn State can build a large lead without Buffalo contributing enough points to push this game over 47.5.