BYU Cougars vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Prediction and Picks for Saturday November 8, 2025
Use Code WWWC ESPN’s College Gameday will be in Lubbock this Saturday as the Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-1, 5-1 Big 12) host the BYU Cougars (8-0, 5-0 Big 12) in a conference showdown in the national spotlight.
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Can BYU earn its respect?
The BYU Cougars are No. 7 in the first College Football Playoff rankings but still find themselves a double-digit underdog heading into the weekend. The Cougars are 6-2 against the spread this season. In their last two games, they won straight up as underdogs, beating Utah 24-21 in the Holy War and defeating Iowa State 41-27 on the road. BYU has also had a bye week to prepare for this one.
BYU ranks 22nd in the nation in scoring (36.3 ppg) and 40th in total offense (433.4 ypg). The rushing attack is 17th (216.6 ypg), led by LJ Martin, who has 789 yards and five touchdowns on the ground, averaging six yards per carry. Quarterback Bear Bachmeier has completed 62.7% of his passes for 1,693 yards with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions. Bachmeier is also second on the team with 408 rushing yards and first with nine rushing touchdowns.
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Defensively, BYU ranks 26th in total defense, holding teams to 318.3 yards per game. The Cougars are 27th against the pass (188.9 ypg) and 40th against the run (129.4 ypg).
Elite on both sides
Texas Tech is No. 8, one spot below BYU in the CFP rankings. This program traditionally isn’t known for playing much defense, but the Red Raiders are forming a new identity in their fourth season under head coach Joey McGuire, who has spent his entire life and football career in the state of Texas.
The Red Raiders are No. 1 in the nation in rushing defense, allowing fewer than 77 yards per game, and 37th against the pass (196.9 ypg), giving them the 10th-rated total defense overall.
Their defense has been complemented by the fifth-ranked total offense (492.3 ypg). Texas Tech ranks third in scoring (43.6 ppg), 14th in passing (294.4 ypg), and 24th in rushing (197.9 ypg).
The Red Raiders are led by quarterback Behren Morton, and they are 7-0 when he has started. Morton has completed 67.9% of his passes for 1,750 yards with 15 touchdowns and four interceptions. He did not play in the team’s lone loss at Arizona State. Running backs Cameron Dickey (746 yards, 10 TDs, 5.6 avg) and J’Koby Williams (525 yards, 5 TDs, 5.7 avg) power the ground game.
BYU vs. Texas Tech Predictions
Spread Pick for BYU vs. Texas Tech
- BYU +10.5 (4 units)
BYU has not gotten the respect it deserves this season, but the Cougars measure up coming into Lubbock. BYU is 14th in the College Football Power Index (FPI), not far behind Texas Tech at No. 11. The FPI also ranks BYU 20th in offensive efficiency and 13th on defense, compared to the Red Raiders, who are 33rd on offense and first on defense.
Even with the defensive edge for Texas Tech, BYU’s defense is no slouch. The Cougars have also faced a slightly tougher schedule (47th vs. 58th). While Texas Tech has padded some stats against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State, and Oregon State, BYU’s resume is more battle-tested.
Total Pick for BYU vs. Texas Tech
- Under 52.5 (4 units)
All things considered, even with Texas Tech holding the home-field advantage, the advanced metrics and eye test show these teams aren’t far enough apart to justify laying double-digit chalk on the favorite. BYU is 3-0 straight up as an underdog this season, and I’ll take them again here.
Texas Tech has the No. 1-rated defense in the FPI and ranks fifth in scoring defense (13.2 ppg). BYU is also strong, ranking 13th defensively in the FPI and 16th in scoring defense (17 ppg). With BYU tied for second in the nation in turnover margin and Texas Tech 14th, neither team is likely to make the kind of mistakes that inflate scoring.
I like the under in what should be a methodical Big 12 slugfest.
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