BYU vs. Texas Tech, Preview, Picks and Prediction, Saturday, December 6, 2025
Use Code WWWC On Saturday, the BYU Cougars and Texas Tech Red Raiders will battle for the Big 12 Championship at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. The title game is scheduled for noon ET.
The Red Raiders are 13-point spread favorites, and the total is 49.5 points scored.
This BYU vs. Texas Tech prediction highlights a matchup that was one-sided during the regular season. The Cougars were shut out until the fourth quarter in that game, as they were 3-for-14 on third down and 1-for-3 on fourth down. The Red Raiders also forced three turnovers (one INT and two fumbles). Saturday's matchup marks the fourth-ever meeting between BYU and TTU on the gridiron. Texas Tech leads the series 2-1.
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Can Cougars put up a fight in the rematch?
BYU (11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS, and 6-6 O/U) handled its business against UCF last weekend, winning 41-21. The Knights jumped out to a 14-0 first-quarter lead, but the Cougars scored 38 combined points in the second and third quarters to pull away. Freshman QB Bear Bachmeier threw for 289 yards and a touchdown, and junior RB LJ Martin added 95 yards and three rushing scores for BYU. The Cougars' defense also forced two turnovers and helped win the time of possession battle by over ten minutes.
Bachmeier paces BYU with 2,593 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, and four interceptions. He has completed 64.6 percent of his passes, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt. The dual-threat has also rushed for 529 yards and 11 scores, averaging 3.9 yards per carry. A few other Cougars to watch in the Big 12 Championship are junior WR Parker Kingston (57 receptions for 804 yards and five TDs), senior WR Chase Roberts (44 receptions for 713 yards and five TDs), and Martin (217 carries for 1,229 yards and 11 TDs).
BYU scores 37.1 points per game (21st) and averages 451.6 total yards (41st), including 239.5 passing yards (77th) and 212.2 rushing yards (21st). The Cougars' defense allows 19.4 points (15th) and 354.1 total yards (32nd) per game, including 224.3 passing yards (51st) and 129.8 rushing yards (31st).
BYU Cougars Football Injury Report:
- Second-leading receiver Chase Roberts, DE John Taumoepeau (36 tackles), and RB Sione Moa are probable to play in the Big 12 Championship versus Texas Tech.
Texas Tech has dominated through the air this season
Texas Tech (11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS, and 5-7 O/U) beat West Virginia 49-0 last Saturday. The Red Raiders have won five straight since suffering their lone loss of the season at Arizona State, allowing a total of 36 points and nine or fewer points in four of those games. They jumped out to a 21-0 advantage in the first quarter of last week's win, and outgained the Mountaineers 572-180 in total yards. Texas Tech averaged 9.6 yards per pass and rushed for 188 yards, controlling the time of possession by 20 minutes. WVU was a combined 2-for-15 on third and fourth down conversions.
Senior QB Behren Morton paces the fourth-ranked Red Raiders with 2,428 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, and only four picks. His top receiving options are senior WR Caleb Douglas (53 receptions for 823 yards and seven TDs) and senior WR Reggie Virgil (47 receptions for 590 yards and six TDs). The Texas Tech run game is led by sophomore RB Cameron Dickey (180 carries for 1,023 yards and 13 scores).
The Red Raiders score 47.1 points per game (2nd) and average 533.6 total yards (3rd), including 322.5 passing yards (8th) and 211.2 rushing yards (23rd). Texas Tech's defense allows 12.3 points (3rd) and 282.5 total yards (7th) per game, including 207.3 passing yards (29th) and 75.2 rushing yards (1st).
Texas Tech Red Raiders Football Injury Report:
- Starting QB Behren Morton, starting safety Cole Wisniewski, starting LB John Curry, starting LT Howard Sampson, and OLB David Bailey (12.5 sacks) are probable to play in the Big 12 Championship versus BYU.
BYU vs. Texas Tech Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for BYU vs. Texas Tech
- BYU +13 (5 Units)
I like the Cougars to cover the spread in the Big 12 Championship. They played well defensively in the first matchup, holding the Red Raiders' run game mostly in check (3.5 yards per carry), aside from a few explosive plays. While not known for their pass rush, the Cougars sacked Texas Tech five times with eight pressures. BYU also held up in the red zone, keeping TTU out of the end zone as much as it could (four field goals and two TDs in six red zone trips). That's not a surprise, as BYU ranks in the top ten nationally in both opponent red-zone scoring and red-zone touchdown rate, while Texas Tech struggled to score touchdowns in the red zone most of the season.
The Red Raiders boast one of the nation's best defenses, but they generated just one sack and four tackles for loss in the first matchup. If BYU can methodically move the football down the field and outperform the Red Raiders in the red zone by converting more of their scoring opportunities for touchdowns, they will cover the spread.
Over/Under Pick for BYU vs. Texas Tech
- Under 49.5 (5 Units)
Aside from a couple of runs and a couple of passes of 30-plus yards, Texas Tech didn't dominate offensively in the first matchup. Without explosive plays, the Red Raiders' attack (96th in Line Yards) isn't as lethal as it seems. BYU will have success creating pressure when it blitzes Morton, as well. On the other side of the ball, expect TTU to make it difficult for the Cougars to run the football. BYU's zone-read concepts were ineffective against Tech, averaging 2.8 yards per play on 26 carries. The Red Raiders also broke up seven of Bachmeier’s passes, holding him to 188 passing yards, and his longest play was just 21 yards.
Both teams are stout defensively, ranking 1st (TTU) and 14th (BYU) in EPA/play, per CFB Graphs. While the Red Raiders should have some success moving the pigskin, the Cougars' defense bends but doesn't break in the red zone. With all that said, the total was set at 50.5 in the first matchup between these teams, and I expect the under to cash again in the rematch.
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